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Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Solid beats in ‘stable businesses’

We have made only minor estimate changes following the Q1 results, and reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price. We continue to find the valuation attractive at a 2026e EV/EBIT of below 9x.

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Focus on orders

Valmet (VALMT FH, Buy) - Focus on orders (18 pages)

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Mixed Q4, with Services shining

We have cut our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c3% on average due to the Q4 earnings miss, our lower capital profitability forecast, and our higher financial cost estimates. We continue to believe the valuation is attractive, and reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price.

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Quality rise warrants multiples uplift

Our analysis shows that Finnish industrials have improved their earnings quality over the past 10 years, supported by expanding Service profitability and shares of total sales and earnings. We believe this together with improved stability, visibility and financials should be better rewarded in the valuations. We have a positive sector stance and highlight Konecranes, Metso and Valmet on potential multiples expansion.

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Eyes on orders and outlook

We expect Q4 orders and clean EBITA to grow YOY. Our order estimates are c1% below post-Q4 consensus, while our clean EBITA is in line. We reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price, with minor (average

Valmet Oyj: 1 director

A director at Valmet Oyj bought 1,000 shares at 23.642EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Earnings growth needed in Q4

Following mixed Q3 results, we have tweaked our 2024–2026e clean EPS (c-1% on average). Q3 clean EBITA improved slightly YOY, but we believe a stronger improvement will be required in Q4 YOY to reach the 2024 guidance of flat clean EBITA YOY. We reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price.

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - 2024 profit warning

We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by 8% on average following Friday’s profit warning. Consensus was sceptical about the previous optimistic-looking guidance, and we expect questions to remain about the new guidance. We have cut our target price to EUR32 (35) but reiterate our BUY.

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR35.00) - Orders and earnings raise forecasts

We have raised our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average mainly due to the recent EUR1bn+ mega pulp order set to be booked in Q4. We expect Q3 orders and clean EBITA to grow YOY. Our orders are c4% below post-Q2 consensus, but clean EBITA is c5% above. We have raised our target price to EUR35 (33) and reiterate our BUY.

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR33.00) - Strong H2 in the making

We have tweaked our 2024–2026e clean EPS following the Q2 results, which revealed better-than-expected orders, an increase in the overall short-term demand outlook, and the maintained 2024 guidance suggesting strong H2 clean EBITA. We reiterate our BUY and EUR33 target price.

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR33.00) - 2024 guidance raised recently

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c10% on average following the recent (13 June) change in 2024 guidance for clean EBITA to increase (earlier ‘flat to increase’) YOY. We have raised our target price to EUR33 (30) and reiterate our BUY. In the Q2 results, we plan to focus on orders and outlook.

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Q1 on the weak side

Following a mixed but negatively skewed overall Q1, we have lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price.

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Soft legacy, inorganic support

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c1% on average, following our reduced underlying assumptions but including recently completed M&A. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price. For the Q1 report, we will focus on orders, profitability and the market outlook.

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Solid Q4, optimism for 2024

We have raised our 2024–2025e clean EBITA by c2% on average, after an in-line Q4 as well as a reiterated outlook and a solid 2024 guidance. Our 3% clean EPS cuts relate to higher than estimated financial costs. We have raised our target price to EUR30 (28) and reiterate our BUY.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Chr. Hansen (No_rec, TP: DKK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Chr. Hansen in light of its combination with Novozymes. Our last published recommendation, target price, and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

 PRESS RELEASE

Completion of the combination between Novozymes and Chr. Hansen

Completion of the combination between Novozymes and Chr. Hansen January 29, 2024 – Company announcement no. 2 Please see attachment. CONTACT INFORMATION Investor Relations Tobias Cornelius Bjorklund Anders Enevoldsen Press Relations Lina Danstrup Attachment

 PRESS RELEASE

All necessary regulatory approvals have been obtained for the combinat...

All necessary regulatory approvals have been obtained for the combination of Novozymes and Chr. Hansen January 26, 2024 – Company announcement no. 1 Please see attachment. Contact information Investor RelationsDisa Tuominen Press RelationsSanne Seyer-Hansen Attachment

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Focus on orders and guidance

Our 2024–2025e clean EPS is unchanged ahead of the Q4 results, due at 12:00 CET on 7 February, followed by a briefing at 13:00 CET. In the report we will focus on orders, the 2024 market outlook and guidance. We expect Valmet to guide for flat or slightly declining sales and clean EBITA YOY (organically down, but with support from M&A). We have raised our target price to EUR30 (28) and reiterate our BUY.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Chr. Hansen (Hold, TP: DKK582.00) - Down to HOLD, target price raised

We forecast Chr. Hansen to reach the high end of its 2023 guidance of 10–12% organic revenue growth and a 26–27% EBIT margin, but expect the combined entity (Novonesis) to issue a new guidance upon completion of the merger. As Chr. Hansen shareholders are set to receive 1.5236 new B-shares in Novonesis, the changes in our Novozymes model translate into a raised Chr. Hansen target price of DKK582 (536), and we have thus downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

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