Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Buying opportunity on our data

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average players grew by 10% QOQ in Q1, compared with our quarterly average Live revenue growth of 3% for 2025e. While still early, Q2 has started very strongly, with 12% QOQ player growth so far. In conclusion, our data signals strong underlying demand for Evolution’s products and a vital recovery after the H2 headwinds.

Awaiting acceleration

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - A step forward

With our unchanged estimates, the well-flagged near-term headwinds and strong player trends confirmed by our tracker, we reiterate our BUY and SEK1,440 target price ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:30 CET on 30 April). We forecast revenue up 8% YOY and EBITDA of EUR367m (Bloomberg consensus EUR369m). Short-term potential catalysts include the UKGC review conclusions and any signs of revenue growth resilience.

Stars and stripes

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Our data reinforces the growth story

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average player total has increased by a healthy 8% QOQ so far in Q1. March has surprised positively, with 9% MOM growth so far, and the ‘Speed Baccarat’ data bodes well for potential signs of resilience in the key Asia segment. After the challenges in H2 2024, the current trends reinforce Evolution’s Live growth story; we reiterate our BUY and SEK1,440 target price.

Stable February player data

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Race to get back on track

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average player total has increased by a healthy 7% QOQ so far in Q1, driven by growth in all the scalable games categories. Despite weaker tailwind from seasonality, in February, daily average players are so far up a solid 4% MOM. We find it promising that Evolution is already approaching the peak player numbers seen before the strike in Tbilisi, and we do not believe our or consensus Q1 revenue growth forecasts (2–3% QOQ) look stretched.

January players down 4% m-o-m

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Growing through the noise

We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK1,440 (1,500), reflecting a 4% 2025e EPS cut following the EBITDA margin guidance for the year (66–68%). On the positive side, cash distribution should be at least cEUR1.1bn in 2025e (c100% of 2024 FCF), including near-term buybacks, and, in our view, as the recent negative consensus revisions stabilise, earnings and cash flow should be more decisive for the stock.

Awaiting the Asian recovery

Q4 in line, but lower '25 margin guidance

ICE 2025: what we learned

Headwinds appear discounted

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1500.00) - A return to fundamentals

We have cut our 2025e EPS by 3% (Asia revenue growth from 13% to 10% YOY) and our target price to SEK1,500 (1,570), but reiterate our BUY. We find underlying fundamentals still-healthy and near-term negatives more than reflected in the stock. After a strong end to Q4 (albeit early days), our data implies a healthy start to 2025 (daily average players +10% QOQ). Our Q4e EBITDA is EUR364m (68.2% margin, -30bp QOQ).

December players up 11% m-o-m

First takes on UKGC regulatory review

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1570.00) - Wrapping player growth for Xmas

Our proprietary data tracker shows a very strong start to December (up 10% MOM), with growth in all segments. Accelerating player activity in the holiday season could result in QOQ player growth for Q4 (versus -9% in Q3 and -4% QTD in Q4). The situation in Georgia (union strike) has calmed down for Evolution, and healthy US market data bodes well for more near-term sales growth improvements.

November players ~flat m-o-m

Kindred Group (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Kindred Group following the delisting of the stock after the acquisition by Française des Jeux. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

October player activity stabilising