Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - A step forward

With our unchanged estimates, the well-flagged near-term headwinds and strong player trends confirmed by our tracker, we reiterate our BUY and SEK1,440 target price ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:30 CET on 30 April). We forecast revenue up 8% YOY and EBITDA of EUR367m (Bloomberg consensus EUR369m). Short-term potential catalysts include the UKGC review conclusions and any signs of revenue growth resilience.

Stars and stripes

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Our data reinforces the growth story

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average player total has increased by a healthy 8% QOQ so far in Q1. March has surprised positively, with 9% MOM growth so far, and the ‘Speed Baccarat’ data bodes well for potential signs of resilience in the key Asia segment. After the challenges in H2 2024, the current trends reinforce Evolution’s Live growth story; we reiterate our BUY and SEK1,440 target price.

Kambi Group Plc: 1 director

A director at Kambi Group Plc bought 20,000 shares at 106.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Stable February player data

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Increasingly de-risked 2025e

The Q4 earnings beat was overshadowed by a 2025 outlook implying negative EBIT YOY, prompting cuts to our 2025–2026e, but fairly stable consensus, we believe. We see potential for more client signings and cost savings to improve the outlook (following positive news flow YTD) as well as scope for higher share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY ahead of an increasingly de-risked 2025e, but have cut our target price to SEK200 (210).

'25 another tough year, but still good value

'25 EBITA guidance in line

Outlook remains uncertain

'25 guidance mid-point well below cons

Balancing '25 headwinds and tailwinds

Unexciting US data in Q4

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Race to get back on track

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average player total has increased by a healthy 7% QOQ so far in Q1, driven by growth in all the scalable games categories. Despite weaker tailwind from seasonality, in February, daily average players are so far up a solid 4% MOM. We find it promising that Evolution is already approaching the peak player numbers seen before the strike in Tbilisi, and we do not believe our or consensus Q1 revenue growth forecasts (2–3% QOQ) look stretched.

The state launch waiting game

Top line pressure continues, slightly better opex

Stronger Q4, but muted '25e could remain

Big Q4 beat, but cons '25e revisions might be small

Brazil in focus, as we see downside to '25e

January players down 4% m-o-m

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Growing through the noise

We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK1,440 (1,500), reflecting a 4% 2025e EPS cut following the EBITDA margin guidance for the year (66–68%). On the positive side, cash distribution should be at least cEUR1.1bn in 2025e (c100% of 2024 FCF), including near-term buybacks, and, in our view, as the recent negative consensus revisions stabilise, earnings and cash flow should be more decisive for the stock.