Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1500.00) - A return to fundamentals

We have cut our 2025e EPS by 3% (Asia revenue growth from 13% to 10% YOY) and our target price to SEK1,500 (1,570), but reiterate our BUY. We find underlying fundamentals still-healthy and near-term negatives more than reflected in the stock. After a strong end to Q4 (albeit early days), our data implies a healthy start to 2025 (daily average players +10% QOQ). Our Q4e EBITDA is EUR364m (68.2% margin, -30bp QOQ).

December players up 11% m-o-m

First takes on UKGC regulatory review

Catena Media: 1 director

A director at Catena Media bought 50,000 shares at 7.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1570.00) - Wrapping player growth for Xmas

Our proprietary data tracker shows a very strong start to December (up 10% MOM), with growth in all segments. Accelerating player activity in the holiday season could result in QOQ player growth for Q4 (versus -9% in Q3 and -4% QTD in Q4). The situation in Georgia (union strike) has calmed down for Evolution, and healthy US market data bodes well for more near-term sales growth improvements.

November players ~flat m-o-m

Kindred Group (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Kindred Group following the delisting of the stock after the acquisition by Française des Jeux. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Kambi Group Plc: 1 director

A director at Kambi Group Plc bought 50,000 shares at 112.850SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 97/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Lack of visibility remains

Pre-announced EBITDA, but big EBIT miss

Awaiting evidence of improvement

October player activity stabilising

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Improving with sizeable buybacks

The Q3 sales growth was lacklustre YOY due to temporary headwinds, and we have cut our 2025e adj. EPS by 5%. But cash flow is improving (EUR60m net cash at end-Q3); the board announced a EUR12m buyback programme; and the outlook remains positive (customer pipeline, Brazil, efficiency focus and rising shareholder distribution). The negative overreaction on results day has created an attractive opportunity, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK210 target price.

Q3 in line with pre-announcement

Unwarranted reaction

Solid Q3 with underlying EBIT beat

Deterioration continues

Reset

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1570.00) - Live casino resilience

We have raised our target price to SEK1,570 (1,550) and reiterate our BUY after signs of stabilising Live revenue growth (c20% YOY at constant FX) and delivery of mitigating factors for the capacity constraints in Georgia. We have fine-tuned our 2025e EPS and expect more execution of the cash distribution and EPS growth case. We are attracted to the expansion story, e.g. the upcoming studio launches in Brazil and the Philippines.

Q3 PW and sharp '24 target downgrade