We keep our HOLD recommendation and target price of SEK152 as we have made minor estimate changes on a group level. As we expected, VCE delivered strong results and Trucks reported solid order intake in Q1. However, operating leverage once again disappointed in Trucks and we see continued pressure on margins throughout 2018e for the division.
We have upgraded our recommendation to HOLD (SELL), but keep our target price of SEK152. The recent weak share performance coupled with our higher earnings estimates on the back of favourable FX changes and still-strong demand for Trucks in North America for construction equipment in China has resulted in a significant de-rating. We find the valuation fair (c16% discount to its historical average), given that we are likely at the top of the cycle with increased threats from alternative fuels.
Limited growth beyond 2018e We keep our SELL recommendation but have raised our target price to SEK152 (147) following better Q4 margins and strong order intake for Trucks and VCE. However, we fear that in 2018e we should be close to the peak of the truck cycle in North America and Europe and thus see no earnings growth in 2019e and 2020e. We also believe electric trucks will gradually change truck makers' business models, which is a risk, not only for Volvo. Therefore, we believe Volvo should b...
The new financial targets presented by Volvo earlier today underscore the structural improvements the company is undergoing. It now targets an EBIT margin through a business cycle of above 10% and less earnings volatility. This makes us more optimistic that we could be about to see years of earnings growth and less downside risk in earnings, which should warrant a higher valuation. Hence, we have upgraded the stock to BUY (Hold) and raised our target price to SEK155 (145).
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