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Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK175.00) - Weak Q1 offset by acquisitions

Momentum Group began 2025 with a weakish Q1, partly due to seasonal variations but operationally still benefiting from its relatively stable Nordic industrial aftermarket exposure. We have tweaked our 2025–2027e EPS, with the operational headwind offset by recent acquisitions. With good ‘financial firepower’ and a solid acquisition track record, the sector roll-up angle looks intact. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK175 (190).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK190.00) - Quarterly demand volatility

Q4 saw increased volatility QOQ, but we have only tweaked our 2025–2027e EPS as demand indicators look supportive into 2025, given Momentum Group’s Nordic industrial aftermarket exposure. With good financial ‘firepower’ and an indicated solid acquisition pipeline, the sector roll-up angle looks intact. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK190 (180) on key peers’ valuation.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK180.00) - Solid growth in Q3

Momentum benefited from its more stable industrial aftermarket exposure in Q3, and we still see an appealing roll-up story in a fragmented Nordic industrial-component market, supported by a solid acquisition pipeline and financial ‘firepower’. We have only tweaked our 2024-26e EPS, and reiterate our HOLD and SEK180 target price, based on a relative valuation to key peers. We find a more neutral risk/reward, with the share price up 71% LTM and consensus 2024–2025e EPS raised by 9–13%.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK180.00) - Acquisitions contributing stron...

Solid Q2 results revealed Momentum Group benefiting from more stable aftermarket exposure. We see an appealing industrial roll-up story in a fragmented Nordic industrial-component market, supported by a solid acquisition pipeline and financial ‘firepower’. Having consolidated recent acquisitions (seven YTD), we have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 3–5%. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK180 (135) after switching to a relative valuation, as the stock looks more momentum- t...

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK135.00) - Aftermarket focus adds stabilit...

Momentum Group kicked off 2024 with a robust Q1, with good underlying demand benefiting from relatively stable aftermarket exposure. We see an appealing industrial roll-up story in a fragmented Nordic industrial-component and service market supported by good financial ‘firepower’ and a solid acquisition pipeline. Having consolidated recent acquisitions (four YTD), we have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 1–4%. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK135 target price given the already high, and deserved valuati...

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK135.00) - Value-creating ‘buy and build’

Momentum Group reported a solid Q4, and remains poised to adapt as some areas are seeing lower activity but no broad-based slowdown is in sight, as it enjoys relatively stable aftermarket exposure. With good financial ‘firepower’ and a solid acquisition pipeline, the sector roll-up angle looks promising. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK135 (110).

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK110.00) - Solid sector roll-up strategy

Momentum Group reported a solid Q3, and remained poised to adjust to potentially weaker business demand; however, there are no tangible changes yet, with the company enjoying relatively stable aftermarket exposure. With good financial ‘firepower’ and an interesting acquisition pipeline, the sector roll-up angle also looks promising. However, we reiterate our HOLD and target price of SEK110 given its (deserved) premium valuation.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK110.00) - Delivering on acquisition poten...

The sector roll-up angle to the Momentum Group investment case has come alight over the past months, with seven acquisitions done YTD. This adds to a solid Q2 report that had good underlying demand benefiting from relatively stable aftermarket exposure. Consolidating recent acquisitions has led us to increase our 2023–2025e EPS by 12–20% and our target price to SEK110 (89). We reiterate our HOLD given the already established premium valuation.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK89.00) - Momentum remaining strong

Momentum Group kicked off 2023 with a robust Q1, with good underlying demand benefiting from relatively stable aftermarket exposure. We see an appealing industrial roll-up story in a fragmented Nordic industrial-component and service market that could gain pace in 2023. We have raised our 2023–2025 EPS forecasts by 5–6%, allowing for higher peer-valuation multiples, translating into an increased target price of SEK89 (79). We reiterate our HOLD given the limited potential upside.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK79.00) - More optimistic 2023 outlook

The Q4 report met expectations, with good underlying demand. Management’s message on the 2023 outlook was more optimistic, building on its strong Swedish industrial aftermarket focus track record. We see an appealing industrial roll-up story in a fragmented Nordic industrial component and service market that could gain momentum in 2023. We have raised our target price to SEK79 (60) on higher valuation multiples, but reiterate our HOLD given the limited potential upside.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK60.00) - Strong recession track record

The Q3 report was solid, with strong underlying demand. With the company’s Swedish industrial aftermarket focus, the business model has a strong track record in periods of weaker demand. We find an appealing industrial roll-up story in a fragmented Nordic industrial component and service market that could gain momentum in a recession. However, we reiterate our HOLD, given the limited upside to our updated target price of SEK60 (64) on peer and multiples valuations.

Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen ... (+12)
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Frank Maaø
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Hoang Nguyen
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Niklas Wetterling
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Steffen Evjen
Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK64.00) - Aftermarket exposure

Q2 saw ongoing good organic growth and profit margin expansion. With its aftermarket focus, the business model has a proven track record in periods of weaker demand, and we have made only minor forecast changes. We find an attractive industrial roll-up story in a fragmented Nordic industrial component and service market, with the financial resources to drive the consolidation strategy. We reiterate our HOLD, with an adjusted target price of SEK64 (75) on peer and multiple valuation.

Douglas Lindahl ... (+18)
  • Douglas Lindahl
  • Emil Jonsson
  • Frank Maaø
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Jørgen Lian
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Hoang Nguyen
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Miika Ihamaki
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Stefan Gauffin
  • Steffen Evjen
  • Tomi Railo
Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Hold, TP: SEK75.00) - First quarterly report after spi...

Momentum Group’s first quarterly report after the spin-off from Alligo was broadly in line with our forecasts, prompting only minor forecast changes. We find an attractive industrial roll-up story in a fragmented Nordic industrial component and service market, with strong financials and a proven management to drive the market consolidation strategy. However, the premium valuation makes us reiterate our HOLD and SEK75 target price.

Alexander Aukner ... (+14)
  • Alexander Aukner
  • Antti Kansanen
  • Eivind Sars Veddeng
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Jon Masdal
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Nicolay Dyvik
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen
Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - Promising acquisition move

With the operational improvement case for Momentum Group evolving, we are encouraged to see the addition of an acquisition angle. The company is purchasing Brammer’s Swedish MRO operation, complementing what is already its strongest business. With Nordic industrial production still strengthening and supporting the investment case, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK140 (135). We have raised our forecasts slightly and see further potential if it meets its targets and de...

Alexander Aukner ... (+16)
  • Alexander Aukner
  • Antti Kansanen
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Eivind Sars Veddeng
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Jon Masdal
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Marius Knudssøn
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Kaland
  • Nicolay Dyvik
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Olof Larshammar
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen
Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Momentum Group (Buy, TP: SEK135.00) - ‘Better than yesterday’

The operating improvement case for Momentum Group remains solid, with the continued strength in Nordic industrial production driving demand. With efficiencies materialising earlier than expected, we have raised our 2017/18–2018/19e EPS by 4–7%, supporting our investment case, and in turn our target price to SEK135 (120), with further potential upside if the group delivers on targets and redeploys its ‘financial muscle’. Our recommendation remains BUY.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Starting in line with our expectation

Momentum Group (MMGRB SS, Buy) - Starting in line with our expectation (14 pages)

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