End of coverage

From 5th February, we will no longer include in our research universe:Adaptimmune, ALK, argenx, Autolus, Cellectis, Galapagos, Hansa Biopharma, Heidelberg Pharma, Immatics, Immunocore, Ipsen, Moonlake Immunotherapeutics, Pharvaris, UCB, Vivoryon Therapeutics, Zealand Pharma, Nicox, GenSight Biologi

Bryan, Garnier & Co Healthcare Daily | ALK, Abivax, Quarterly update

Reports preliminary Q1 2023 results due slower tablet growth in Europe...

ALK reported preliminary Q1 2023 results with 7% organic topline growth and a 6% increase in EBIT. The legacy business performed ahead of expectations. However, tablet sales growth was slower than expected due to new patient initiation impacted by a respiratory wave of infections in Germany and the

Northern Lights

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Good start to new strategy

Q1 revenue was c2% above consensus, mainly driven by SCIT/SLIT-drops. SLIT-tablets missed expectations due to US stockpiling, while growth otherwise was stronger than expected in Europe. ACARIZAX enjoyed strong uptake in France, and we see encouraging signs of investments in US tablets starting to materialise. In general, a quarter offering evidence of the new strategy, along with the higher EBITDA guidance, suggests to us that 2018 indeed is the bottom. We have lifted our target price to DKK1,0...

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK950.00) - Q1 beat, strong start to the year

The Q1 results were slightly above our forecasts and consensus on revenue, driven by SCIT/SLIT-drops, while operating profit was significantly better than expected due to improved operational efficiencies. The better than expected Q1 also prompted ALK to raise its 2018 guidance. Based on the new guidance we expect consensus EPS up c20%, and expect the shares to trade up 3 –5% today given the strong start to the year.

Northern Lights

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK950.00) - Expecting Q1 in line with guidance

ALK is due to report Q1 results on 4 May at 08:00 CET. Apart from FX, which looks set to hit hardest in H1, we expect the Q1 results to be broadly in line with the full-year guidance and thus expect it to be maintained. We note, however, that we have still not seen any changes in the price and reimbursement situation in France, for which ALK has included a cDKK100m negative impact. We reiterate our BUY and DKK950 target price.

Northern Lights

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK950.00) - The stage is set for execution

The Q4 top line was below expectations, but a miss we regard as low quality as it was driven by the legacy portfolio, while tablet sales outperformed. We find the 2018 guidance broadly in line with the preliminary guidance from December, which reflects the toughest year in the three-year transformation period ahead. It is also a year where reaching the 5,000 patient target for ODACTRA should increase investor confidence in the longer-term targets. We keep our BUY recommendation, but have lowered...

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK970.00) - Guidance slightly below estimates

The Q4 results were below our forecasts and consensus on revenue driven by SCIT/SLIT-drops, while operating profit was better than expected as revenue of tablets exceeded expectations. The 2018 guidance for cDKK2.7bn in revenue was slightly below expectations driven by FX, while the EBIDTA guidance of cDKK50m with little FX impact was below expectations. We expect the shares to perform in line with the market today.

Northern Lights

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK970.00) - All about ODACTRA

As ALK reaffirmed the 2017 guidance in December, we expect focus in the Q4 results (due at 08:00 CET on 6 February) to be on be on the detailed 2018 guidance, and not least initial feedback from the US launch of ODACTRA. We expect 2018 guidance in line with the preliminary outlook given in conjunction with the strategy update in December. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and DKK970 target price.

Look beyond weak Q2

ALK-Abello (ALKB DC, Buy) - Look beyond weak Q2 (16 pages)