China’s healthcare industry has experienced a slump in stock prices due to weak market sentiment. Our channel check indicates that the industry is generally in good shape and has become increasingly innovative. Most healthcare companies are improving their operating efficiency and expecting to generate stronger revenue and/or earnings growth in 2024. The recent sell-off has made valuations more attractive. BUY on weakness. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Easing pressure from the anti-corruption campaign will result in stronger sales growth for medical products. Moreover, after years of persistent R&D efforts, many Chinese biopharmaceutical companies now expect a fruitful year of innovation in 2024. In addition, potential US interest rate cuts will also provide liquidity for R&D investment and support the development of biotech and CRO segments in 2024. We expect a brighter outlook in 2024. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Despite the weak global funding environment for biotech, companies have shown persistent efforts in pursuing innovation and globalisation. Moreover, regular academic conferences have gradually returned, supporting stronger sales momentum in 4Q23. We prefer companies with a positive long-term outlook and attractive valuations. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Most healthcare companies reported satisfactory 1H23 results while revising down revenue growth to factor in delays in some academic conferences and hospital procurement in 3Q23. As pressure from the anti-corruption campaign is easing, we believe sales activities of medical products will resume soon and that long-term growth outlook remains intact. We prefer companies with positive long-term outlooks and attractive valuations. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
MicroPort reported revenue growth of 19.2% yoy to reach US$482.6m, and net loss declined by 17.9% yoy to Rmb162.6m in 1H23. The results are better than our fullyear growth estimates for 2023. MicroPort guided revenue to grow at approximately 25% yoy (excluding forex impact) and significant decrease in net loss in 2023. We are relatively conservative as the anti-corruption campaign clouds its growth outlook for 2H23. Maintain SELL and target price of HK$9.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Further moderation in manufacturing contraction; policy support necessary Sector Aviation Airlines still loss-making but improving; expecting a turnaround in 2H23. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Internet China e-commerce seeking growth through international market expansion. Property Demand-side policy easing more strongly than expected; top pick: COLI. Results Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb6.11/Target: Rmb7.10) 1H23: Below expectations; gearing up for the grow...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines still loss-making but improving; expecting a turnaround in 2H23. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$26.40/Target: HK$39.30): 1H23: In line; expecting a smooth price hike. Estun Automation (002747 CH/BUY/Rmb23.23/Target: Rmb31.50): 2Q23: Earnings impacted by forex loss, but robot business remains solid. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/SELL/HK$9.30/Target: HK$5.20): 2Q23: Results rebound qoq, but 1H23 earnings still fall short of tar...
ICL is a promising segment of medical services. China’s ICL market had a low penetration rate of about 6% in 2021 vs developed countries’ 35-60%. The roll-out of DRG programmes continues to accelerate the outsourcing of testing services from hospitals. The accelerating post-pandemic market consolidation may also benefit leading ICL players. Our channel check shows that leading players (KingMed and Dian) expect to deliver steady growth in 2023 non-COVID-19-related revenue. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
We like healthcare service providers and leading pharmaceutical producers with steady revenue and earnings growth and ample cash on hand should outperform. We expect biotech companies and CRDMO companies to remain under pressure until US easing monetary policies improve liquidity and remove biotech funding challenges. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Now that the business environment has returned to normal, most healthcare companies expect higher visibility of revenue and earnings prospects in 2023. Medical services and consumable producers will likely benefit the most and see robust revenue expansion. CRO/CDMO firms may become less appealing to investors given their slower revenue growth and lower margin trend. Biotech firms have made significant R&D and commercial achievements, but will still face significant funding challenges in 2023. Ma...
MicroPort reported revenue growth of 8.0% yoy and a net loss of US$436.5m in 2022, up from 2021’s loss of US$276.5m, missing our and market estimates. MicroPort has guided revenue growth of 20-25% yoy and significant improvement in operating efficiency in 2023, while we believe that possible GPO tenders and further weakening of global economic conditions could continue to cloud its growth outlook for the next few years. Maintain SELL with a lower target price of HK$14.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Points to further recovery, but employment still soft. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$8.97/Target: HK$11.50) 2022: Below expectations; recognition of RMB2,045m in impairment provision. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$12.04/Target: HK$13.48) 2022: Core earnings a slight beat; expecting earnings decline in 2023. Maintain BUY. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$18.96/Target: HK$27.14) 2022: Results below expectations; targeting 20% sale...
GREATER CHINA Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$8.97/Target: HK$11.50) :2022: Below expectations; recognition of Rmb2,045m in impairment provisions. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$18.96/Target: HK$27.14): 2022: Results below expectations; targeting 20% sales growth in 2023 with strengthened landbank. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$28.95/Target: HK$35.10): 2022: Below expectations; gas shortages in 4Q22 weighed on margins. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888...
China has reopened after the relaxation of its COVID-19 policy. Our channel check indicates that although the COVID-19 policy may have disrupted sales for some companies in 4Q22, the worst is over. We expect the market to revive quickly which will support a significant revenue and earnings growth recovery in 2023. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls: The positive sentiment on the economic reopening may carry over into December and limit the extent of any consolidation. We are adding more beneficiaries of the reopening and policy easing. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformed The JCI by 3.7%: Our picks: ROTI, BBRI, BBNI, SMGR, TLKM, KLBF and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Rejoining The Global Equity Uptrend: Nov 22 Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI. Dec 22 picks: ...
Contrary to our expectations of continued volatility, Chinese equities put up a strong performance in November, buoyed by hopes of an economic reopening. The positive sentiment may carry over into December and limit the extent of any consolidation. So for December, we are adding more beneficiaries of the reopening and policy easing.
China has further eased its COVID-19 policy and highlighted a potential new plan to accelerate vaccination coverage. We believe effective Omicron-targeting vaccines will pave the way for China’s gradual reopening. CSPC’s mRNA vaccine is likely to win EUA approval by end-22. Moreover, the relaxation supports a better revenue and earnings growth visibility for most healthcare companies in 2H22 and 2023. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: Equities would stay volatile in November, as reopening hopes play out against falling global dollar liquidity. We keep SELLs on our list, and add defensives and reopening beneficiaries. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Another Month Of Outperformance: Our picks: ROTI, BBRI, BBNI, SMGR, TLKM, KLBF and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Positioning For A More Risk-On Sentiment: Oct 22 Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI. Nov 22 p...
Chinese equities should remain volatile in November as we see hopes of easing pandemic control measures playing out against a backdrop of falling global dollar liquidity. We add a combination of defensive plays and beneficiaries of reopening. We add CR Beer, CSPC, Meituan, PICC P&C, and WuXi AppTec to our BUY list; and add MicroPort Scientific to our SELL list.
GPO tenders and NRDL price negotiation have become common practices of China’s healthcare industry, for which companies are already well prepared for and hoping to gain market share by tender wins. Although the US’ tightening policy have depressed share prices, we believe firms with leading market positions in the subsectors and strong ability to withstand risks and deliver future returns will outperform in the possible global recession in 2023. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
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