reports
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Valuation remains out of sync with sustainable RoTEs
March underperformance sparked repositioning opportunity; risk-reward compelling – Greek bank shares had a strong start to 2024 (until Feb) closing the valuation gap vs EU periphery peers buoyed by the stellar 2023 profits (adj. RoTE of c16%), successful B/S de-risking (NPE ratio c4%) and improved market liquidity post HFSF’s placements. However, in March they suffered a bout of underperformance (>15%), with the relative 2024e P/TBV discount widening to c20% (and the P/E discount even higher) on...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Valuation remains out of sync with sustainable RoTEs
March underperformance sparked repositioning opportunity; risk-reward compelling – Greek bank shares had a strong start to 2024 (until Feb) closing the valuation gap vs EU periphery peers buoyed by the stellar 2023 profits (adj. RoTE of c16%), successful B/S de-risking (NPE ratio c4%) and improved market liquidity post HFSF’s placements. However, in March they suffered a bout of underperformance (>15%), with the relative 2024e P/TBV discount widening to c20% (and the P/E discount even higher) on...
Piraeus Financial Holdings S.A.: 2 directors
Two Directors at Piraeus Financial Holdings S.A. sold 11,000 shares at between 3.958EUR and 3.968EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's direc...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2024 outlook | Junk no more
2023: Reclaiming investor spotlight – Greek equities had another year of stellar performance, with the ASE index popping >40%, eclipsing the Stoxx 600 by >25ppts. Strong fundamentals (mid-teens EBITDA growth for non-financials, >50% NII growth for banks) were coupled with falling risk premia thanks to crystallized domestic political stability and expectations for Greece’s return to investment grade (IG), further propelled by the generic risk-on rally in Q4 and low positioning. Financials (+66%) ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2024 outlook | Junk no more
2023: Reclaiming investor spotlight – Greek equities had another year of stellar performance, with the ASE index popping >40%, eclipsing the Stoxx 600 by >25ppts. Strong fundamentals (mid-teens EBITDA growth for non-financials, >50% NII growth for banks) were coupled with falling risk premia thanks to crystallized domestic political stability and expectations for Greece’s return to investment grade (IG), further propelled by the generic risk-on rally in Q4 and low positioning. Financials (+66%) ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Dividends Ahoy
Resilient NII despite funding challenges and likely interest rate cuts – Following a >50% surge in NII in 2023e (58% in the 9m period), investor focus has been clearly shifting to prospects for 2024-25e, especially in view of likely rate cuts. Despite the upcoming peak in NII (in Q4’23 or Q1’24), we project resilience in 2024, supported by credit growth (c4% p.a. in 2024-25e), the gradual benefit from deposit hedges (contributing c4% of NII by 2025e) as well as the lower-than-anticipated deposit...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Dividends Ahoy
Resilient NII despite funding challenges and likely interest rate cuts – Following a >50% surge in NII in 2023e (58% in the 9m period), investor focus has been clearly shifting to prospects for 2024-25e, especially in view of likely rate cuts. Despite the upcoming peak in NII (in Q4’23 or Q1’24), we project resilience in 2024, supported by credit growth (c4% p.a. in 2024-25e), the gradual benefit from deposit hedges (contributing c4% of NII by 2025e) as well as the lower-than-anticipated deposit...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – Post Greece’s IG upgrade | Stay on board
Stay on board – Greek stocks have had a rather muted summer (ASE +4.7% in July, -1.6% in August), as the prospect for higher-for-longer rates fanned worries about the global economy, leading to widening equity risk premia amidst poorer liquidity conditions given the low seasonality. With Greek stocks already up 35% ytd (banks +55%), the short-term risk-reward looks symmetrical as the fragile international sentiment is balanced with the strong domestic fundamentals, attractive valuations and posi...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – Post Greece’s IG upgrade | Stay on board
Stay on board – Greek stocks have had a rather muted summer (ASE +4.7% in July, -1.6% in August), as the prospect for higher-for-longer rates fanned worries about the global economy, leading to widening equity risk premia amidst poorer liquidity conditions given the low seasonality. With Greek stocks already up 35% ytd (banks +55%), the short-term risk-reward looks symmetrical as the fragile international sentiment is balanced with the strong domestic fundamentals, attractive valuations and posi...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Laggards No More
Profit momentum continuing unfettered in Q2’23… – Managements' concerns over rising deposit betas have proved excessive in hindsight as migration to term deposits seems to have remained limited in Q2 (2-3% q/q) with a low pass-through rate (70% ytd, partly propelled by earnings upgrades (12m fwd EPS +40% ytd) and partly by re-rating. With the sector still at 5.7x 2024e PE and 0.68x 2024e P/TBV, there is further upside in our view, especially as current prices still incorporate CoE in the mid-tee...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Laggards No More
Profit momentum continuing unfettered in Q2’23… – Managements' concerns over rising deposit betas have proved excessive in hindsight as migration to term deposits seems to have remained limited in Q2 (2-3% q/q) with a low pass-through rate (70% ytd, partly propelled by earnings upgrades (12m fwd EPS +40% ytd) and partly by re-rating. With the sector still at 5.7x 2024e PE and 0.68x 2024e P/TBV, there is further upside in our view, especially as current prices still incorporate CoE in the mid-tee...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK BANKS | Upside hard to ignore as fundamentals re-take center sta...
Banks’ fundamentals outlook intact – The global banking sector turmoil since early March has tested the Greek Banking sector's resilience, more in terms of sentiment than in terms of fundamentals. Still, the rise in risk-premia precipitated by the fallout of SVB/CS led to a >20% sell-off in Greek banks in March. With funding markets now calmer and confidence in the EU banking system gradually restored, we believe visibility on earnings has improved again and this has been manifested in the c8% b...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK BANKS | Upside hard to ignore as fundamentals re-take center sta...
Banks’ fundamentals outlook intact – The global banking sector turmoil since early March has tested the Greek Banking sector's resilience, more in terms of sentiment than in terms of fundamentals. Still, the rise in risk-premia precipitated by the fallout of SVB/CS led to a >20% sell-off in Greek banks in March. With funding markets now calmer and confidence in the EU banking system gradually restored, we believe visibility on earnings has improved again and this has been manifested in the c8% b...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
QUEST QUESTBACK GROUP AS
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
QUEST QUESTBACK GROUP AS
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK BANKS | Solidified fundamentals but re-rating may take a pause f...
Strong fundamentals despite macro uncertainties – We remain constructive on Greek Banks’ 2023 outlook, despite the uncertainty around the impact of higher rates on economic growth and asset quality, the still precarious external environment and the trickier political backdrop. Notwithstanding the challenges, the fundamental dynamics for the sector are quite solid, with the overriding driver being the benefit from asset re-pricing in the light of rate hikes and the volume growth. Q3 results were ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK BANKS | Overlooked and undervalued but bumpy road to re-rating
Fundamentals vs sentiment; Structurally positive, tactically cautious – We believe that Greek banks are on a strong fundamental footing, with rising rates set to provide a significant tailwind for earnings in 2022-23, barring a domestic recession outcome next year. That said, share prices have moved out of sync with fundamentals, with Greek banks up just by 3% ytd (albeit outperforming a c13% decline for EU banks) and still trading at a hefty c25% discount vs EU periphery peers. With sentiment b...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK BANKS | Overlooked and undervalued but bumpy road to re-rating
Fundamentals vs sentiment; Structurally positive, tactically cautious – We believe that Greek banks are on a strong fundamental footing, with rising rates set to provide a significant tailwind for earnings in 2022-23, barring a domestic recession outcome next year. That said, share prices have moved out of sync with fundamentals, with Greek banks up just by 3% ytd (albeit outperforming a c13% decline for EU banks) and still trading at a hefty c25% discount vs EU periphery peers. With sentiment b...
- Panagiotis Kladis
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | On a recovery mode
Q1 earnings suggest a good start to the year – Greek banks reported sizeable net profit (€1.2bn) for Q1 2022 on the back of one-off revenues, lower operating expenses and a significant decline in provisions. Core revenues were lower both on a yearly and quarterly basis as the NII drop (-14% y/y) overshadowed the impressive fee generation (+28% y/y). Organic asset quality trends were neutral (avg NPE ratio at 9.6%, -30bps q/q), while regulatory capital on a fully loaded (FL) basis improved q/q on...
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