reports
Piraeus Financial Holdings S.A.: 1 director
A director at Piraeus Financial Holdings S.A. sold 5,500 shares at 6.030EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Strong Q1 Delivery, Valuation Still Stuck in Catch-Up Mo...
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off 2025 with a strong set of Q1, reporting net profits of €1.26bn, down just 4% qoq but coming in 5% above our expectations and 8% ahead of consensus, with Alpha Bank and NBG leading the beat (24% and 17% vs cons, respectively). Results were supported by resilient NII (in line), tight cost control (OpEx slightly below), and a solid trading line beat. Credit quality remained stable, with average CoR broadly in line at c50bps. Sector-wide NII fell 5%...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Strong Q1 Delivery, Valuation Still Stuck in Catch-Up Mo...
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off 2025 with a strong set of Q1, reporting net profits of €1.26bn, down just 4% qoq but coming in 5% above our expectations and 8% ahead of consensus, with Alpha Bank and NBG leading the beat (24% and 17% vs cons, respectively). Results were supported by resilient NII (in line), tight cost control (OpEx slightly below), and a solid trading line beat. Credit quality remained stable, with average CoR broadly in line at c50bps. Sector-wide NII fell 5%...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Rallying with Room to Run
Strong finish to the year, with robust loan growth and earnings resilience – Greek banks delivered another solid quarter in Q4, exceeding both our and consensus estimates, supported by stronger-than-expected fee income (+4% vs cons) and lower impairments (-5% vs cons). Despite ongoing NII headwinds, NIM proved resilient at 2.65%, contracting just 15bps qoq—on faster loan repricing relative to deposits, a low deposit beta (20% on total deposits), stable lending spreads (-18bps ytd), incremental b...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Rallying with Room to Run
Strong finish to the year, with robust loan growth and earnings resilience – Greek banks delivered another solid quarter in Q4, exceeding both our and consensus estimates, supported by stronger-than-expected fee income (+4% vs cons) and lower impairments (-5% vs cons). Despite ongoing NII headwinds, NIM proved resilient at 2.65%, contracting just 15bps qoq—on faster loan repricing relative to deposits, a low deposit beta (20% on total deposits), stable lending spreads (-18bps ytd), incremental b...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2025 outlook | Almost same story, different ye...
Repeat of 2024, with different headwinds – Following a year in which Greek equities performed broadly in line with EU periphery stocks (but better than broad EU indices), 2025 looks somewhat trickier given international headwinds (e.g. tariffs, geopolitics). Easing monetary policy is certainly a positive, in the sense that it could justify higher valuations, but the overriding driver of re-rating would be a resolution of the war in Ukraine, as is the case for the EU as a whole. On the positive s...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2025 outlook | Almost same story, different ye...
Repeat of 2024, with different headwinds – Following a year in which Greek equities performed broadly in line with EU periphery stocks (but better than broad EU indices), 2025 looks somewhat trickier given international headwinds (e.g. tariffs, geopolitics). Easing monetary policy is certainly a positive, in the sense that it could justify higher valuations, but the overriding driver of re-rating would be a resolution of the war in Ukraine, as is the case for the EU as a whole. On the positive s...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | DTC headwinds fade, dividends rise, and value beckons
Strong Q3 Results Reinforce Optimism on Lending Growth and NII Resilience - Greek banks delivered another strong quarter in Q3, surpassing our and consensus estimates, driven by higher-than-expected NII (+3% vs cons) and significantly lower impairments (-25% vs cons). Despite NII headwinds, the NIM held firm at 2.74%, driven by low deposit betas (17% of the overall deposit base), resilient lending spreads (-12 bps ytd), incremental yields from reinvested bond portfolios, and strong credit growth...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | DTC headwinds fade, dividends rise, and value beckons
Strong Q3 Results Reinforce Optimism on Lending Growth and NII Resilience - Greek banks delivered another strong quarter in Q3, surpassing our and consensus estimates, driven by higher-than-expected NII (+3% vs cons) and significantly lower impairments (-25% vs cons). Despite NII headwinds, the NIM held firm at 2.74%, driven by low deposit betas (17% of the overall deposit base), resilient lending spreads (-12 bps ytd), incremental yields from reinvested bond portfolios, and strong credit growth...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Technical factors mask dividend growth and earnings resi...
Solid fundamentals, but technical pressures have been weighing on performance – Despite consistently exceeding profit estimates in recent quarters, Greek banks have underperformed peripheral banks and the SX7E index by c20% and c5% ytd, respectively. While NII headwinds persist, the impact has been less severe than expected, with only a 1% qoq decline in Q2. Banks' resilience is further supported by improvements in asset quality, stronger fee generation driven by lending activity and a 13% ytd i...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Technical factors mask dividend growth and earnings resi...
Solid fundamentals, but technical pressures have been weighing on performance – Despite consistently exceeding profit estimates in recent quarters, Greek banks have underperformed peripheral banks and the SX7E index by c20% and c5% ytd, respectively. While NII headwinds persist, the impact has been less severe than expected, with only a 1% qoq decline in Q2. Banks' resilience is further supported by improvements in asset quality, stronger fee generation driven by lending activity and a 13% ytd i...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK MARKET PULSE | Autumn Chill
The ATHEX has shed c3% since the start of August, significantly underperforming vs both broader Europe (Stoxx 600 +0.7%) and periphery markets (MIB +2.8%). Performance has been weighed down primarily by banks, which have fallen c7% over the period, compared to a c4% return registered by their EU peers. Non-financials have also stalled, with just a handful of companies in the green since August (mostly from the mid-cap space). Of note is that this move is out of sync with fundamentals, as most co...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK MARKET PULSE | Autumn Chill
The ATHEX has shed c3% since the start of August, significantly underperforming vs both broader Europe (Stoxx 600 +0.7%) and periphery markets (MIB +2.8%). Performance has been weighed down primarily by banks, which have fallen c7% over the period, compared to a c4% return registered by their EU peers. Non-financials have also stalled, with just a handful of companies in the green since August (mostly from the mid-cap space). Of note is that this move is out of sync with fundamentals, as most co...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Banking on dividends again
ECB approval and EPS upgrades likely to catalyze a re-rating – The ECB has approved Greek banks' requests to pay the proposed dividends out of 2023 profits, signaling a return to normality after 16 years. The announced payouts correspond to shareholder remuneration of €0.063 for Piraeus (1.7% DY), €0.052 for Alpha Bank, equally split between a cash dividend of €0.026 (1.6% DY) and a buyback (3.2% total yield), €0.0933 for Eurobank (4.6% DY), and €0.36 for NBG (4.6% DY). Following a period of >15...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Banking on dividends again
ECB approval and EPS upgrades likely to catalyze a re-rating – The ECB has approved Greek banks' requests to pay the proposed dividends out of 2023 profits, signaling a return to normality after 16 years. The announced payouts correspond to shareholder remuneration of €0.063 for Piraeus (1.7% DY), €0.052 for Alpha Bank, equally split between a cash dividend of €0.026 (1.6% DY) and a buyback (3.2% total yield), €0.0933 for Eurobank (4.6% DY), and €0.36 for NBG (4.6% DY). Following a period of >15...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Solid Q1 leaves upside skew to FY24e; Buy
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off the year with strong Q1 results, with adj. net profit remaining flat qoq at €1.26bn and soaring 45% yoy exceeding both our and consensus estimates by >10%, as a result of resilient NII and lower-than-expected underlying CoR (at 64bps vs EEe of 77bps). In more detail, sector-wide NII surged 15.5% yoy in Q1 (NIM +42bps), slipping just 2.6% qoq (NIM down by 8bps) after a record-breaking Q4’23, in line with our estimates, with Eurobank showing the m...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Solid Q1 leaves upside skew to FY24e; Buy
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off the year with strong Q1 results, with adj. net profit remaining flat qoq at €1.26bn and soaring 45% yoy exceeding both our and consensus estimates by >10%, as a result of resilient NII and lower-than-expected underlying CoR (at 64bps vs EEe of 77bps). In more detail, sector-wide NII surged 15.5% yoy in Q1 (NIM +42bps), slipping just 2.6% qoq (NIM down by 8bps) after a record-breaking Q4’23, in line with our estimates, with Eurobank showing the m...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Valuation remains out of sync with sustainable RoTEs
March underperformance sparked repositioning opportunity; risk-reward compelling – Greek bank shares had a strong start to 2024 (until Feb) closing the valuation gap vs EU periphery peers buoyed by the stellar 2023 profits (adj. RoTE of c16%), successful B/S de-risking (NPE ratio c4%) and improved market liquidity post HFSF’s placements. However, in March they suffered a bout of underperformance (>15%), with the relative 2024e P/TBV discount widening to c20% (and the P/E discount even higher) on...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Valuation remains out of sync with sustainable RoTEs
March underperformance sparked repositioning opportunity; risk-reward compelling – Greek bank shares had a strong start to 2024 (until Feb) closing the valuation gap vs EU periphery peers buoyed by the stellar 2023 profits (adj. RoTE of c16%), successful B/S de-risking (NPE ratio c4%) and improved market liquidity post HFSF’s placements. However, in March they suffered a bout of underperformance (>15%), with the relative 2024e P/TBV discount widening to c20% (and the P/E discount even higher) on...
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