YIT issued a ‘clarification notice’ 1.5 hours before the Q1 result publication, changing group ‘segment’ figures to IFRS; thus our and consensus forecasts were not comparable with the Q1 figures. However, despite the accounting change, the new pro-forma figures revealed declining revenues in all segments. We have cut our EPS 2018 forecasts and remain well below consensus for EPS 2019e. We reiterate our SELL recommendation and have cut our target price to EUR5.8 (6.4).
In the newly merged company, Q1 (results due 26 April, 08:00 CET) will be a minor quarter on seasonally negative EBIT in Paving. Thus our Q1 focus is on order backlog and market comments. YIT has guided for Q1 consumer home sales of -6% YOY in Finland, -20% YOY in CEE, and (recovering from low nominal levels) +28% YOY in Russia. The weak Finnish guidance suggests downside risk in housing there: we reiterate our SELL recommendation and EUR6.40 target price.
Although YIT had issued preliminary figures for its FY revenues in January, it reported EBIT 3% above our forecast and 15% above Vara consensus. Our fear remains the high revenue consensus in Housing Finland, with housing starts now surpassing demand; we and EuroConstruct expect a drop in starts, while consensus is for revenue and EBIT growth. We thus reiterate SELL and our target price of EUR6.3.
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