EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: US macro - may be heading for 6% rates and recession • Shoper: 2Q22 adjusted EBITDA broadly in line with preliminary figure NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: sees increase in OSII buffer - cross-read for Bank Pekao • PKO BP: sees OSII hike to 200bps (up from 100bps) • Polyus: 1H22 financial results - in line with consensus EBITDA, further pressure ahead NEUTRAL • Short News (COTE, SNP, SNG)
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • Erdemir: attractive dividend yield, offset by cost pressures (HOLD - reinitiation of coverage) • Titan Cement: recovering lost ground (stays BUY) • Erste Bank: posts very solid 2Q22 results and guidance mix POSITIVE • Otokar: 2Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Eurobank: strong 2Q22, guidance upgraded for 2022E • National Bank: another solid beat, with upside risks for 2022E forecasts • NLB Banka: 2Q22 results review - annualised ROE reaches as much as 20.8% • Zagreb Stock E...
HEADLINES: • Polish oil & gas: you can't have one, without the other (PKN Orlen stays BUY, Grupa Lotos upgraded to BUY) • Polymetal: considering potential disposal of Russian assets POSITIVE • Polyus/Polymetal: ban of Russian gold imports to the EU could be approved formally today NEGATIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 2Q22E results preview (due on 29 July) • Short News (EL, FP, TEL)
HEADLINES: • LiveChat Software: Zendesk, LVC's closest peer, to be acquired for USD 10.2bn POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: results of the tender offer • OMV Petrom: reduction of price at pump might be voluntary and covered by cuts in other taxes • Alro: completes new automated extrusion line • Zagreb Stock Exchange: increases stake in Macedonian Stock Exchange to 17.05% • Polyus/Polymetal: US and G7 agree on import ban on new gold from Russia
AT: Flughafen Wien - Home carrier Austrian Airlines' summer capacities correspond to roughly 80% of pre Covid levels (neutral) CZ: CEZ - Acquiring Czech nuclear servicing company from Gazprombank (neutral) PL: Consumer - E-commerce momentum seems to weaken as survey shows 51% (down from 64%) declared lasting changes to shopping patterns (neutral) PL: Insurance - Insurers could raise mandatory motor insurance premiums for reckless drivers (positive) RO: Transgaz - Fitch keeps rating BBB...
HEADLINES: • Lotos: announces conditional dividend distribution POSITIVE • Bogdanka: Treasury kicks off acquisition of Enea's shares • CEZ: announces acquisition of Skoda JS, its major nuclear fleet supplier • Magyar Telekom: acquires fibre network covering 110k access points for HUF 6.95bn NEUTRAL • Polyus: buys 100% stake in Chulbatkan gold deposit from Highland Gold Mining POSITIVE • Short News (SNP, SNG, TGN)
ATX indices review - FFF and NoS changes in IMMOFINANZ and Marinomed Biotech AT: Flughafen Wien, Austrian State Holding - Head of state holding's supervisory board to step down, Flughafen Wien CFO Ofner rumoured to take the helm (neutral) AT: voestalpine - FY 21/22 EBITDA in line with guidance, improved CF in Q4, DPS of EUR 1.20; FY 22/23 EBITDA range of EUR 1.8-2.0 bn below headline consensus which however was rather sticky throughout spring (neutral) HU: OTP Bank - Windfall tax estimat...
CZ: CEZ - CEZ not to bid for RWE's storage assets in Czechia, press (neutral) PL: PKO BP - 9% wage hike offered to half of staff (neutral) RU: Polyus - New shareholder may add its representative to the board (neutral) RU: Tatneft - Proposed final DPS revealed weaker than expected payout for 2021 (negative)
AT: Erste Group - CEO Spalt will not extend his contract which ends in June 2023 (negative) CEE: Banks - UniCredit and Citi considering asset swaps with Russian financial institutions RO: Electrica - Dark cloud on the Electrica Q1 22 result, bottom line in red (negative) RO: One United Properties - Q1 22 revenues from sales of RON 197 mn, up 19% yoy, and a net profit of RON 166 mn, up 320% yoy (positive) RO: Purcari Wineries - Q1 22 net profit increased by 16.51% yoy (positive) RU: P...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • Romanian utilities: for those willing to wait (Electrica stays BUY, Transgaz stays HOLD, Transelectrica upgraded to HOLD) • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q22 results review - strong beat vs. expectations on low provisions • Bank Millennium: 1Q22 results review - results in line with expectations • Polish banks: government proposals to aid mortgagors may hit Polish banks' 2022-23E earnings NEGATIVE • Garanti: 1Q22 highlights NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 1Q22 results - EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, in ...
AT: Andritz - Andritz suspended all new business in Russia (neutral) AT: STRABAG - Hermann Melnikov resigned from the supervoisory board (neutral) RU: Fertilisers - Export quotas till end-May increased (positive) RU: Petropavlovsk - Sale of assets is considered among other options (negative) RU: Polyus - Interim board to be formed on June 6 (neutral) RU: Russia - DR delisting and conversion law signed by President Putin (negative) RU: The Russian central bank held out the prospect ...
AT: Wienerberger - Q1 trading statement reveals encouraging start into FY 22 (positive) PL: PGNiG - Gazprom missed the deadline for appealing the Stockholm tribunal decision regarding the gas price compensation to PGNiG (neutral) RU: Polyus - CEO resigned, new CEO appointed (neutral)
RO: Medlife - Medlife bought a 60% stake in Pro Life Clinics (neutral) RO: One United Properties - One acquires a plot of land with an area of 3,065 sqm to expand One Lake Club (positive) RU: Petropavlovsk - Major shareholder remains in business (neutral) RU: Polyus - Major shareholder sold a 29.99% stake and left the board (neutral) RU: Sberbank - Included on the SDN list (negative)
Oil&Gas: Oil price - A potential announcement of another release of US oil reserves puts pressure on the oil price ahead of today's OPEC meeting PL: PKN - The 2021 DPS proposal of PLN 3.50 is fully in line with previous guidance and market expectation (neutral) RU: Fertilisers - Essential goods incl. fertilizers are exempted from any U.S. anti-Russia sanctions (positive) RU: NLMK - NLMK continues steel supplies to Europe and USA (neutral) RU: Petropavlovsk - Loan from Gazprombank may ...
AT: Kapsch TraffiCom - Arbitration court decides in favour of Kapsch TrafficCom regarding German toll claim (positive) DE: Encavis - Encavis Asset Management bought 11 MWp wind park for EIF II fund (neutral) RO: Electrica - Distribution tariffs for electricity will increase starting April 1 (positive) RU: ALROSA - Tiffany refused to buy diamonds with a Russian origin (negative) RU: Petropavlovsk - Gold sales complicated on UK sanctions against Gazprombank (negative) RU: Russian gold ...
AT: CA Immo - FY 21 and Q4 defined by capital rotation and lower occupancy, as expected (neutral) AT: EVN - Lower Austria presents Energy Transition Acceleration Package (neutral) AT: Vienna Insurance Group - Acquisition of Aegon Hungary closed (neutral) HU: MOL - Divestment of UK upstream assets for a total consideration of USD 305 mn (neutral) PL: Cyfrowy Polsat - Q4 21 net income beats consensus by ca. 20% (positive) PL: PGNiG - Final Q4 results fully in line with preliminaries (n...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 4Q21 - strong beat, but bearish FY22E guidance • Alior Bank: 4Q21 headline profits miss hides solid operating result and clean-up of small issues POSITIVE • LPP: PLN 520m write-downs in FY21; optimistic guidance for FY22E POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: FY21 - a milestone year; can 2022E meet the elevated expectations? • Migros: 4Q21 earnings above expectations on deferred taxes, in line operationally NEUTRAL • Enea: 4Q21 results review - strong numbers, EBITDA in line ...
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