Finland’s Fortum is buying Germany’s Uniper from E.ON with a view to concluding the deal in early-2018. Apart from increasing Fortum’s footprint in the Russian power market, the deal means a change in Unipro’s ultimate beneficiary, with sizeable related risks to Unipro’s currently compelling investment case. A potential adverse amendment to the dividend policy, changes in the management team, a forced asset sale, and a possible stock delisting are the key risk factors implied by the Fortum/Unipe...
After last week’s 2Q17 earnings release and call we refreshed our Unipro model to incorporate the new Berezovskaya (BTPP) recovery guidance (capex and timeframe). The stock still combines a good earnings growth case supported by attractive dividend potential, with ample dividend upside after the damaged unit’s recovery. We maintain our BUY call especially after the stock correction last week, while we cut our 12M target price to RUB3.18.
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