Aton

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​Since its inception in 1991, ATON has built a reputation for combining in-depth local knowledge of the Russian market with the highest international standards in research, sales and trade execution. As a result, we have been able to attract many of the leading domestic and international institutional fund management groups as our clients. As one of the leading independent investment banks in Russia, we offer the full range of institutional brokerage service, including:

  • Detailed fundamental analysis of economics, sectors and companies, with the widest coverage universe in Russia and the CIS;
  • Timely trading ideas to help clients take advantage from short-term pricing discrepancies;
  • Competitive prices and prompt execution of trades;
  • An on-line platform providing easy access to all our research products and tools.
  • Client-focused Service
  • We employ state-of-the art technology to ensure the highest quality of investment services as well as the highest level of data protection.


ATON DAILY (RSTI) // September 22

● Rosseti (RSTI RX; UR) to enter Crimea

09/22/17 September 22, 2017 2 EN
Alexander Kornilov
  • Alexander Kornilov
UPRO RX UNIPRO PJSC

UNIPRO: A Finnished Story?

Finland’s Fortum is buying Germany’s Uniper from E.ON with a view to concluding the deal in early-2018. Apart from increasing Fortum’s footprint in the Russian power market, the deal means a change in Unipro’s ultimate beneficiary, with sizeable related risks to Unipro’s currently compelling investment case. A potential adverse amendment to the dividend policy, changes in the management team, a forced asset sale, and a possible stock delisting are the key risk factors implied by the Fortum/Unipe...

09/22/17 September 22, 2017 7 EN
Andrey Lobazov
  • Andrey Lobazov
URKA RX URALKALI PJSC

URALKALI: Next Buyback in March 2018?

We believe Uralkali is on track to reduce its net leverage to below 4.0x EBITDA by YE17. The latter is the ratio level prescribed by its covenant, and being freed of this restriction would open the door for another buyback in Mar 2018. On MtM potash price and RUB FX, sales should amount to 6.2mt in 2H17 which, in our view, is easily achievable, and implies a 6% HoH decrease and 94% capacity utilisation. The free float market cap is $410mn, slightly above Uralkali’s semi-annual FCF of $250-300mn,...

09/22/17 September 22, 2017 3 EN
Andrey Lobazov
  • Andrey Lobazov
AKRN RX ACRON

ACRON: Revisited after Urea Rally – Reiterate HOLD

Urea rallied on stronger demand and higher anthracite costs in China, returning the Fertiliser sector to investor radars, and spurring street upgrades of Yara, Acron’s direct peer. We have refreshed our Acron model, reviewed its investment case, and reiterate the HOLD rating as we do not believe its valuation levels are justified. The stock is trading at 6.7x FY17 EBITDA, which is close to all-time high and implies a 55% premium to its own 5Y average, while its discount to Yara has narrowed by 1...

09/21/17 September 21, 2017 6 EN

ATON DAILY (ALRS, UPRO) // September 21

● ALROSA (ALRS RX; HOLD, TP – RUB85) CEO sees no need to adjust dividend payments ● Fortum bids for Uniper that owns Unipro (UPRO RX; BUY, TP – RUB3.18)

09/21/17 September 21, 2017 2 EN

ATON DAILY (RSTI) // September 22

● Rosseti (RSTI RX; UR) to enter Crimea

09/22/17 September 22, 2017 2 EN

ATON DAILY (ALRS, UPRO) // September 21

● ALROSA (ALRS RX; HOLD, TP – RUB85) CEO sees no need to adjust dividend payments ● Fortum bids for Uniper that owns Unipro (UPRO RX; BUY, TP – RUB3.18)

09/21/17 September 21, 2017 2 EN

ATON DAILY (AFLT, SSA) // September 20

â–² Aeroflot (AFLT RX; HOLD, TP – RUB190) places 4.84% treasury shares worth RUB10bn ● Sistema (SSA LI; NR) files court appeal as step towards Rosneft settlement

09/20/17 September 20, 2017 2 EN

ATON DAILY (ROSN, LKOD, RSTI, NCSP, GLPR, LSRG) // September 19

● Rosneft (ROSN LI; BUY, TP – $7.3) to build 30bcm gas pipeline in Kurdistan â–¼ Turkey’s Palmali claims $2.0bn from LUKOIL (LKOD LI; BUY, TP – $67) â–¼ State mulls new equity injections for Rosseti (RSTI RX; UR) ● Putin orders government to prepare plan to set ports tariffs in roubles (NCSP RX: NR, GLPR NR) ● LSR Group (LSRG RX; HOLD, TP – RUB950) discloses parameters of its new SPB project

09/19/17 September 19, 2017 2 EN

ATON DAILY (CBR Rate Cut, Oil Tax, PSBR, VZRX, HYDR, GenCos, Primary M...

● CBR cuts key rate by 0.5% to 8.5%, no dovish rhetoric â–¼ Government mulls incremental excise tax increase ● Promsvyazbank (PSBR RX; NR) and Vozrozhdenie bank (VZRZ RX; NR) merge â–² RusHydro (HYDR RX; BUY – TP RUB1.13) could still increase dividends ● System Operator releases preliminary KOM-2021 results AHML (BB+/Ba1/BBB-) opens the book for a RUB10bn bond, coupon guidance of 8.1-8.2%, and 8.35-8.46% yield to the 1Y put

09/18/17 September 18, 2017 2 EN
Andrey Lobazov
  • Andrey Lobazov

FLOWS AND POSITIONING: Sanctions On, Risk Off

In June, ATON’s affluent and high net-worth clients increased cash positions in USD and RUB and sold equity and fixed income securities following the US Senate’s sanctions deal. Mounting fears of oil oversupply and that interest rates may decline faster than expected made the O&G and financial sectors most unloved in June. Leading dividends (8% yield) turned Transneft prefs into a top buy before the ex-div date of 6 July. A sell-off of Sberbank shares took place following a court decision to sat...

07/06/17 July 6, 2017 3 EN

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