Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Germany leads Q3 sales miss

Q3 sales were roughly half the level we expected – admittedly from a small base, but still a concern for us, since the miss was led by Germany, with much slower growth than recently. However, operating expenses were also less than we forecast, leaving an operating loss of SEK61m, a fraction better than our cSEK-63m. End-Q3 cash was SEK250m, which the company said would see it to positive cash flow in 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (4.5) on increased uncertain...

Q3 report: weak Germany weighs on sales

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK4.50) - Sales set to be in focus

Q2 Pepaxti sales missed our estimate (SEK8.2m versus SEK10m); however, strong cash flow included a one-off (although this will be reversed in Q3), and reported end-quarter cash was higher than we forecast (adj. cash was cSEK278m, lower than we forecast). The company said adj. cash should be sufficient to take it to positive cash flow (which it still expects late-2026). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK4.50 (5.50) on the back of our estimate changes.

Q2 report: Slowly gaining market access

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK5.50) - Financial stability achieved

In line with the pre-announcement, sales were cSEK5m in Q1, while the EBIT loss was less than we forecast on lower operating costs. The company reiterated its 2026 guidance and stated that its financial position after the rights issue should take it all the way to cash-flow positivity. We reinstate a recommendation with a BUY and SEK5.5 target price.

Q1 report: on the journey towards profitability

Oncopeptides (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Rights issue announced

Oncopeptides this morning announced plans for a cSEK300m fully guaranteed rights issue. This should not come as a surprise to the market as the company was very clear in its Q4 report that it had financial resources to last into Q2 2024. Due to DNB Markets’ role in the rights issue, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.

Oncopeptides (Hold, TP: SEK5.50) - US not an option, focus on Europe

In line with our base-case scenario, the FDA has withdrawn the accelerated approval for Pepaxto in the US. As a result, the focus is now growth in Europe, where it has full approval. Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, but we believe the sales trend is moving in the right direction. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK5.5 (7).

Oncopeptides (Hold, TP: SEK7.00) - Europe launch progressing

Q3 sales were slightly below our forecast. However, Q4 seems to be off to a good start (almost as many vials sold in October as in Q3). A new official price is in place in Germany, with which Oncopeptides is satisfied (we had expected a higher price). The company said its liquidity would take it to end-Q2 next year, and thus we believe the financial risks are increasing. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK7 (8.5).

Northern Lights

Oncopeptides (Hold, TP: SEK8.50) - Downgraded to HOLD

Q2 product sales were in line with our forecast; however, we believe a Pepaxti roll-out in Europe will take longer than previously anticipated and that a potential Type 2 variation is now of less value. Oncopeptides is appealing the FDA’s formal request for the withdrawal of Pepaxto from the US market, and expects a response from the agency in H2. We have cut our target price to SEK8.5 (15) (our target price includes potential dilution from future share issues). Given the limited potential upsid...

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK15.00) - Growing its market presence

Oncopeptides reported its Q1 results on 4 May. Sales, but also operating expenses, were lower than we expected (mainly due to a repayment of R&D costs). The company said its plan, based on the activities in Europe only, would take it to profitability in 2026, one year later than we initially expected. Our forecasts include additional capital raises in 2023 and 2024 (and the corresponding dilution). Based on our forecast adjustments, we reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK15 (22...

Northern Lights

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK22.00) - First Pepaxti sales in Europe

Oncopeptides reported an operating loss in Q4, but also booked the first (limited) sales of Pepaxti in Germany. However, we expect a slow ramp up given sales and marketing activities and launch “pressure testing” are ongoing; as a result we have cut our Pepaxti sales growth forecasts. In addition, we now assume Oncopeptides will go it alone rather than out-license Pepaxti. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK22 (28).

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK28.00) - Launch in Germany

The Q3 report contained no big surprises. While SG&A costs were above our estimate, this is explained by the start of EU commercialisation. The company indicated a target population in the region implying cUSD150m–200m in annual revenues. We have tweaked our cost estimates and reiterate our BUY and SEK28 target price.

Sector Fast Comment - Hospital data update

Better hospital margins in September Weaker procedure volume momentum into Q4 Small positive for capex exposure

Oncopeptides - Q3 report neutral: December a defining month

No material updates in the Q3 report Onco projects: SEK 1.5-2bn EU sales, ABG at SEK 1.5bn Q3 neutral to case: FDA update & GSK data in mid-Dec

Oncopeptides - DREAMM-3 turns into a nightmare for GSK

GSK’s OCEAN replica shows worse OS (HR: 1.114) Lack of age sub-group data limits read-across for now More data possible at ASH; slight positive for Onco

Oncopeptides - When it can’t get worse, it can only get better

ABGSCe & market already pricing Onco ex-US market… …while lack of update suggests FDA bartering underway Up to HOLD on limited downside & slim upside potential

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK28.00) - US out of the picture

We believe the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) meeting put the final nail in the coffin for Pepaxto in the US last night. While the FDA has not announced a final decision, we believe the odds are very much stacked against Pepaxto, and for Oncopeptides in the US at this stage. As a result, we have removed the US from our forecasts, but also trimmed potential uptake in Europe. Nevertheless, we believe the negative share price reaction in recent days is overdone, and reiterate our BUY, bu...