>Gradually recovering from Argentina’s devaluation - Revenues decreased 1% y-o-y in Q1 (vs -20% in Q4 and -3% in Q3) to € 470m, broadly aligned with our estimates yet a touch below the consensus, with a very negative forex impact (-49pp this quarter vs - 60pp in Q4). This headline sales decline is mainly due to the impact derived from the Argentine peso devaluation in late December 2023 and its translation to the accounts with IAS 29 hyperinflation rules, which noneth...
>Sales and EBITDA hit by Argentina’s devaluation - Revenues decreased 20% y-o-y in Q4 (vs -3% in Q3 and +6% in Q2) to € 364m, 11% above our estimates yet 7% below the consensus, with a very negative forex impact (-60pp this quarter vs - 54pp in Q3). This headline sales decline is mainly due to the impact derived from the Argentine peso devaluation in late December 2023 and its translation to the accounts with IAS 29 hyperinflation rules (€/ARS at 911 vs 370 in Q3 2023...
>Q4 preview: FX revaluation - The company is due to publish its Q4 2023 results on 28 February before the market opens. We expect total sales to decline -28% y-o-y to € 517m (vs -39% in Q3 and -1% in Q2). This headline sales decline is mainly due to the FX impact from the Argentine peso devaluation in late December 2023 and its translation to the accounts with IAS 29 hyperinflation rules (EUR/ARS at 906 vs 370 in Q3 2023 vs 144 in Q3 2022). This sudden drop comes fr...
Since begin July 2023 Triodos Bank (TB) has been quoted at the multilateral trading facility (MTF) Captin, where each week on a Wednesday a price is being determined. For the next few years, we estimate an EPS of about € 5.5, a circa 6.0% ROE and an IFRS book value per share of about € 91 end 2023. TB is quoting at a PE of about 4.5x and a P/B of about 0.25x. For the fair value PE of TB, we take a material discount on the bank peer group PE which is now at 5-8x. We identified five dis...
Since begin July 2023 Triodos Bank (TB) has been quoted at the multilateral trading facility (MTF) Captin, where each week on a Wednesday a price is being determined. For the next few years, we estimate an EPS of about € 5.5, a circa 6.0% ROE and an IFRS book value per share of about € 91 end 2023. TB is quoting at a PE of about 4.5x and a P/B of about 0.25x. For the fair value PE of TB, we take a material discount on the bank peer group PE which is now at 5-8x. We identified five dis...
>Organic pace accelerates but so does the FX deterioration - Revenues decreased by 3% y-o-y in Q3 (vs +6% in Q2 2023 and +16% in Q1 2023) to € 518m, in line with our estimate and the consensus, with very negative FX (-54pp this quarter vs -35pp in Q2 2023 and -19pp in Q1 2023). The comp was harder than in the previous quarters as Q2-Q3 2022 saw a return to normality after the Omicron outbreak. Organic growth accelerated the solid pace seen in previous quarters, reachi...
>Q3 preview: as reported numbers to appear weak on FX and the deconsolidation of the Australian unit - The company is due to publish its Q3 2023 results on 3 November before the market opens. We expect total sales to decline -3% y-o-y to € 517m (vs -1% in Q2 and +16% in Q1). The soft headline sales momentum is namely due an FX headwind (EURARS @ 370 in Q323 vs 144 in Q322) and the deconsolidation of its Australian business (as of September 2023) which will now be equi...
>Organic pace accelerating but FX continuing to take a heavy toll - Revenues increased by 6% y-o-y in Q2 (vs +16% in Q1 2023, +4% in Q4 2022 and +37% in Q3 2022) to € 502m, in line with our estimate and the consensus, with a very negative forex impact (-32pp this quarter vs -19pp in Q1 2023, -1pp in Q4 2022 and +3pp Q3 2022) and a 5pp scope contribution (Change Group). The comp was somewhat harder than in the previous quarter as Q2 2022 saw a return to normality after...
>Softer headline sales growth on a tough comp, but organic pace remains solid - Revenues only increased by 4% y-o-y in Q4 (vs +37% in Q3 and +36% in Q2) to € 455m, 10% below our estimates and 5% below the consensus, with a negative forex impact (-1pp this quarter vs +3pp Q3) and very limited perimeter contribution (0.2pp). The comp was notably tougher than in Q3 (+19% Q4 2021 vs +6% Q3 2021). Organic growth, however, kept the solid pace seen in previous quarters reac...
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