reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM), mid-cap S&P 400 (IJH), Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF), and countless other Sectors/industries are breaking out from 3-week bullish falling wedge/flag patterns. This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook...
SF STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP.
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MC MOELIS & CO. CLASS A
LINC LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES
CVLT COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC.
APEI AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUCATION
AFG AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
AIG AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP INC.
ING.. ING GROEP N.V. ADS
UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC.
NTNX NUTANIX INC. CLASS A
ATGE ADTALEM GLOBAL EDUCATION INC.
AXAHY AXA S.A. ADS
JEF JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
DBX DROPBOX INC. CLASS A
STRA STRATEGIC EDUCATION INC.
TKOMY TOKIO MARINE HOLDINGS INC. ADS
AFYA AFYA
PRDO PERDOCEO EDUCATION CORP
LRN STRIDE INC
LAZ LAZARD INC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports). The latest risk-on developments include the Russell 2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, respectively, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps. Breadth improvement and broadening participati...
- Henry Heathfield
Morningstar | AXAHY Updated Star Rating from 03 May 2019
AXA reported activity indicators for the first quarter of 2019. There are some mixed numbers in here, but we think they generally show a strengthening business. Having rolled our model for 2018, we increase our fair value estimate from EUR 26.0 to EUR 29.0 per share. We maintain our no-moat rating. Gross revenue across the group was up 270 basis points on a comparable basis and this has been backed by growth in property and casualty, and specialty insurance. Property cat lines volumes were lowe...
- Henry Heathfield
Morningstar | AXA 1Q Has Indicators, but Overall a Strengthening Busin...
AXA reported activity indicators for the first quarter of 2019. There are some mixed numbers in here, but we think they generally show a strengthening business. Having rolled our model for 2018, we increase our fair value estimate from EUR 26.0 to EUR 29.0 per share. We maintain our no-moat rating. Gross revenue across the group was up 270 basis points on a comparable basis and this has been backed by growth in property and casualty, and specialty insurance. Property cat lines volumes were lowe...
- Henry Heathfield
Morningstar | AXA 1Q Has Indicators, but Overall a Strengthening Busin...
AXA reported activity indicators for the first quarter of 2019. There are some mixed numbers in here, but we think they generally show a strengthening business. Having rolled our model for 2018, we increase our fair value estimate from EUR 26.0 to EUR 29.0 per share. We maintain our no-moat rating. Gross revenue across the group was up 270 basis points on a comparable basis and this has been backed by growth in property and casualty, and specialty insurance. Property cat lines volumes were lowe...
- Henry Heathfield
AXA 1Q Has Indicators, but Overall a Strengthening Business
AXA reported activity indicators for the first quarter of 2019. There are some mixed numbers in here, but we think they generally show a strengthening business. Having rolled our model for 2018, we increase our fair value estimate from EUR 26.0 to EUR 29.0 per share. We maintain our no-moat rating. Gross revenue across the group was up 270 basis points on a comparable basis and this has been backed by growth in property and casualty, and specialty insurance. Property cat lines volumes were lower...
- Henry Heathfield
Gaining Quality, AXA Undervalued
AXA reported a good set of results for 2018. This is the first full year of consolidated earnings since the announcement and completion of the XL acquisition in March and September 2018. At a broad level, revenue was up 4% and underlying earnings were up 6%. Net income dropped to EUR 2.1 billion as a result of goodwill impairment, though this was still above our expectations. We are going to hold our fair value estimate at EUR 26 per share, though we may revise this when we get full balance shee...
- Henry Heathfield
Decent 2018 Results for AXA
AXA reported a good set of results for 2018. This is the first full year of consolidated earnings since the announcement and completion of the XL acquisition in March and September 2018. At a broad level, revenue was up 4% and underlying earnings were up 6%. Net income dropped to EUR 2.1 billion as a result of goodwill impairment, though this was still above our expectations. We are going to hold our fair value estimate at EUR 26 per share, though we may revise this when we get full balance shee...
- Henry Heathfield
Morningstar | We Think AXA's 9-Month Result Shows Some Underlying Prob...
AXA reported nine-month indicators for 2018, with a 2% increase in property and casualty commercial lines to EUR 12.4 billion, which is where we think the market is focused. The stock looks to us to be undervalued, trading at around 0.7 times book value, though we recognise there are some uncertainties surrounding the business. We maintain our EUR 26 fair value estimate and no-moat and stable moat trend ratings. The 1% rise in property and casualty revenue was mainly driven by a 2% increase in ...
- Henry Heathfield
We Think AXA's 9-Month Result Shows Some Underlying Problems With Inte...
AXA reported nine-month indicators for 2018, with a 2% increase in property and casualty commercial lines to EUR 12.4 billion, which is where we think the market is focused. The stock looks to us to be undervalued, trading at around 0.7 times book value, though we recognise there are some uncertainties surrounding the business. We maintain our EUR 26 fair value estimate and no-moat and stable moat trend ratings. The 1% rise in property and casualty revenue was mainly driven by a 2% increase in c...
- Henry Heathfield
Morningstar | AXA is dramatically shifting its business model to a Zur...
The two pillars that support AXA’s 2020 strategy are focus and transform. Of the two, we believe only focus has real relevance. It targets nonlife small to medium enterprises and midmarket, as well as unit-linked and in-force management. Transform speaks of customer centricity, which is in vogue among insurers but will not provide meaningful profit improvement. The low-interest-rate environment is leading insurers to search for alternative sources of earnings and ways to offset low yields with...
- Henry Heathfield
AXA is dramatically shifting its business model to a Zurich insurance-...
AXA reported underlying earnings of EUR 3.3 billion for the first half of a very noisy 2018. This is slightly below our expectations, but to be fair, AXA has had a pretty good start to the year, especially considering all the work to which management has been tending. We maintain our EUR 26 per share fair value estimate and our no-moat rating. Since the start of the year, AXA has passed through a flurry of transactions. These include peripheral units, such as the sale of operations in Azerbaijan...
- Henry Heathfield
Morningstar | Diversification is AXA's biggest strength and greatest w...
The two pillars that support AXA’s 2020 strategy are focus and transform. Of the two, we believe only focus has real relevance. It targets nonlife small to medium enterprises and midmarket, as well as unit-linked and in-force management. Transform speaks of customer centricity, which is in vogue among insurers but will not provide meaningful profit improvement. The low-interest-rate environment is leading insurers to search for alternative sources of earnings and ways to offset low yields with...
- Henry Heathfield
Diversification is AXA's biggest strength and greatest weakness.
AXA reported underlying earnings of EUR 3.3 billion for the first half of a very noisy 2018. This is slightly below our expectations, but to be fair, AXA has had a pretty good start to the year, especially considering all the work to which management has been tending. We maintain our EUR 26 per share fair value estimate and our no-moat rating. Since the start of the year, AXA has passed through a flurry of transactions. These include peripheral units, such as the sale of operations in Azerbaijan...
- Henry Heathfield
Morningstar | AXA 1H Misses; Fundamentals Look Good; Shares Undervalue...
AXA reported underlying earnings of EUR 3.3 billion for the first half of a very noisy 2018. This is slightly below our expectations, but to be fair, AXA has had a pretty good start to the year, especially considering all the work to which management has been tending. We maintain our EUR 26 per share fair value estimate and our no-moat rating. Since the start of the year, AXA has passed through a flurry of transactions. These include peripheral units, such as the sale of operations in Azerbaija...
- Henry Heathfield
AXA 1H Misses; Fundamentals Look Good; Shares Undervalued.
AXA reported underlying earnings of EUR 3.3 billion for the first half of a very noisy 2018. This is slightly below our expectations, but to be fair, AXA has had a pretty good start to the year, especially considering all the work to which management has been tending. We maintain our EUR 26 per share fair value estimate and our no-moat rating. Since the start of the year, AXA has passed through a flurry of transactions. These include peripheral units, such as the sale of operations in Azerbaijan...
- Henry Heathfield
AXA: Mixed 1Q Results From a Thin Trading Statement
AXA has reported a trading update for the first quarter of 2018. This is a revenue and new business margin release that is scant in details. We maintain our EUR 26 fair value estimate and our no-moat and stable moat trend ratings. Our fair value estimate values the combined business at 0.8 times book value, with an estimated 9.0% return on equity at the end of our explicit projection period. The highlights of the release were a strong life and savings revenue result in France, also seen in healt...
- Henry Heathfield
- CFA
AXA Stands Firm With AXA IM as Independent
We believe the recent announcement by AXA--that AXA Investment Managers will remain independent despite the rumours regarding potential bids for the division--is the right one for the business. We are increasing our fair value estimates to EUR 30 from EUR 28.50 and to $35 from $31.50 to account for the time value of money. We will maintain our no-moat rating. AXA’s 2020 strategy centres on focus and transformations that are ultimately related to repositioning within nonlife to commercial sm...
- Henry Heathfield
- CFA
First-Half 2017: AXA Continues With Life and Savings Rotation and U.S....
AXA reported a 1% increase in net income for first-half 2017 to EUR 3.3 billion, slightly ahead of our expectations. This was driven by a mix of core and noncore improvements, and is essentially a standard set of results, with little in the way of colour or changes within the business. We therefore maintain our EUR 28.50 fair value estimate and no-moat rating. Since January, the business has gone through a series of transactions that have included the sale of U.K. property and casualty, a small ...
- Paul McCann
AXA to IPO Its US Operations in 1H18
On May 10, 2017, AXA SA (OTC US: AXAHY, $26.34, Market Capitalization: $63.9 billion) announced that it intends to list a minority stake of its US operations and its 64% interest in AllianceBernstein Holding LP (NYSE: AB, $21.10, Market Capitalization: $2.0 billion). Company DescriptionAXA SA (AXAHY), Parent is a worldwide leader in insurance and asset management, founded in 1852 and is headquartered in Paris, France. It operates through four segments; Life & Savings, Property & Casualty, Asset...
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