EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: US macro - may be heading for 6% rates and recession • Shoper: 2Q22 adjusted EBITDA broadly in line with preliminary figure NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: sees increase in OSII buffer - cross-read for Bank Pekao • PKO BP: sees OSII hike to 200bps (up from 100bps) • Polyus: 1H22 financial results - in line with consensus EBITDA, further pressure ahead NEUTRAL • Short News (COTE, SNP, SNG)
AT: Utilities - Austrian government announces electricity price caps for households (negative) Oil&Gas - Oil price: G7 is getting serious about a price ceiling on Russian oil RO:Banca Transilvania - Banca Transilvania takes a loan of EUR 25 mn from the EBRD to support lending to businesses (neutral)
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • Erdemir: attractive dividend yield, offset by cost pressures (HOLD - reinitiation of coverage) • Titan Cement: recovering lost ground (stays BUY) • Erste Bank: posts very solid 2Q22 results and guidance mix POSITIVE • Otokar: 2Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Eurobank: strong 2Q22, guidance upgraded for 2022E • National Bank: another solid beat, with upside risks for 2022E forecasts • NLB Banka: 2Q22 results review - annualised ROE reaches as much as 20.8% • Zagreb Stock E...
HEADLINES: • Polish oil & gas: you can't have one, without the other (PKN Orlen stays BUY, Grupa Lotos upgraded to BUY) • Polymetal: considering potential disposal of Russian assets POSITIVE • Polyus/Polymetal: ban of Russian gold imports to the EU could be approved formally today NEGATIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 2Q22E results preview (due on 29 July) • Short News (EL, FP, TEL)
AT: Andritz - Andritz acquried Bonetti group (neutral) AT: Andritz - Andritz to supply fiberline and lime kiln equipment to Sun Paper, China (neutral) AT: UBM - UBM sells project and construction management subsidiary Alba (neutral) AT: Wienerberger - Strong Q2 results trigger FY EBITDA guidance upgrade (positive) AT: Zumtobel - Better than expected Q4 results despite higher warranty costs, FY 21/22 guidance beat, implied FY 22/23 EBIT range in line with RBIe (positive) CZ: CEZ - CEZ...
HEADLINES: • LiveChat Software: 4Q21-22 (calendar 1Q22) results - EBITDA up 10% yoy, 8% below our estimates NEGATIVE • PCF Group: Outriders Worldslayer released, initial Steam reviews disappoint NEGATIVE • Nuclearelectrica: calls GMS to approve EUR 185m financing for EnergoNuclear NEGATIVE • OMV Petrom: the government adopts the Ordinance reducing fuel prices by RON 0.5/litre • Romgaz: transaction with Exxon to be completed at end-July 2022 NEUTRAL • Gazprom: AGM fails to approve its 2021 divid...
HEADLINES: • LiveChat Software: Zendesk, LVC's closest peer, to be acquired for USD 10.2bn POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: results of the tender offer • OMV Petrom: reduction of price at pump might be voluntary and covered by cuts in other taxes • Alro: completes new automated extrusion line • Zagreb Stock Exchange: increases stake in Macedonian Stock Exchange to 17.05% • Polyus/Polymetal: US and G7 agree on import ban on new gold from Russia
AT: Lenzing - Minimum dividend as of FY 23 raised to EUR 4.50 (positive) RO: Digi Communications - A joint venture between Digi and Citymesh won spectrum to operate in Belgium for EUR 114 mn (positive) RO: Medlife - Medlife consolidates its position in the West part of the country (positive) RO: OMV Petrom - The Supervisory Board approved the proposed special dividend and share capital increase (neutral) RU: Gazprom - Additional MET payments of RUB 416 bn could reduce 2022e DPS by RUB ...
AT: Flughafen Wien - Home carrier Austrian Airlines' summer capacities correspond to roughly 80% of pre Covid levels (neutral) CZ: CEZ - Acquiring Czech nuclear servicing company from Gazprombank (neutral) PL: Consumer - E-commerce momentum seems to weaken as survey shows 51% (down from 64%) declared lasting changes to shopping patterns (neutral) PL: Insurance - Insurers could raise mandatory motor insurance premiums for reckless drivers (positive) RO: Transgaz - Fitch keeps rating BBB...
HEADLINES: • Lotos: announces conditional dividend distribution POSITIVE • Bogdanka: Treasury kicks off acquisition of Enea's shares • CEZ: announces acquisition of Skoda JS, its major nuclear fleet supplier • Magyar Telekom: acquires fibre network covering 110k access points for HUF 6.95bn NEUTRAL • Polyus: buys 100% stake in Chulbatkan gold deposit from Highland Gold Mining POSITIVE • Short News (SNP, SNG, TGN)
ATX indices review - FFF and NoS changes in IMMOFINANZ and Marinomed Biotech AT: Flughafen Wien, Austrian State Holding - Head of state holding's supervisory board to step down, Flughafen Wien CFO Ofner rumoured to take the helm (neutral) AT: voestalpine - FY 21/22 EBITDA in line with guidance, improved CF in Q4, DPS of EUR 1.20; FY 22/23 EBITDA range of EUR 1.8-2.0 bn below headline consensus which however was rather sticky throughout spring (neutral) HU: OTP Bank - Windfall tax estimat...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
AT: IMMOFINANZ - CPI offer deadline to end on May 30, instead of May 28 (neutral) AT: Telekom Austria - Acquisition of Bulgarian ICT market leader (positive) AT: Verbund - Verbund announced special dividend of EUR 1.15 on top of 22e payout (neutral) HU - Introduction of windfall profit taxes esp. hitting the financial and energy sector (negative) PL: CCC - Q1 22/23 conference call stressed an increasing interest in lower priced products (neutral) RU: Gazprom - BoD recommends record high dividend...
HEADLINES: • Cognor Holding: record results could serve as re-rating trigger (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Hungary macro: taxes and budget consolidation • Alpha Bank: strong 1Q22 numbers, with upside risk for FY22E estimates POSITIVE • Kernel: 3Q22 EBITDA materially below our estimates, amid weak farming segment result NEGATIVE • Aegean Airlines: 1Q22 - small beat, fare levels exceed expectations, summer outlook encouraging POSITIVE • Public Power Corporation: 1Q22 earnings in line, still ...
CZ: CEZ - CEZ not to bid for RWE's storage assets in Czechia, press (neutral) PL: PKO BP - 9% wage hike offered to half of staff (neutral) RU: Polyus - New shareholder may add its representative to the board (neutral) RU: Tatneft - Proposed final DPS revealed weaker than expected payout for 2021 (negative)
AT: Erste Group - CEO Spalt will not extend his contract which ends in June 2023 (negative) CEE: Banks - UniCredit and Citi considering asset swaps with Russian financial institutions RO: Electrica - Dark cloud on the Electrica Q1 22 result, bottom line in red (negative) RO: One United Properties - Q1 22 revenues from sales of RON 197 mn, up 19% yoy, and a net profit of RON 166 mn, up 320% yoy (positive) RO: Purcari Wineries - Q1 22 net profit increased by 16.51% yoy (positive) RU: P...
MSCI May Index Review - Standard indices (STD) changes: DEL: Raiffeisen Bank Intl.; SmallCap indices (SC) changes: ADD: STRABAG SE, DEL: Zumtobel AT: AGRANA - Final FY 21/22 results match preliminary figures, FY 22/23e guidance confirmed (neutral) AT: AT&S - AT&S proposed dividend of EUR 0.90/share for 2021/22e (neutral) AT: Oesterreichische Post - Final Q1 22 numbers in line with prliminary figures, outlook reiterated (neutral) AT: Palfinger - Takeover of remaining 35% stake in French...
AT: Addiko Bank - Q1 22 profit slightly ahead of market expectations, CET 1 deterioration (neutral) AT: Wienerberger - Share buyback programme extended (positive) PL: mBank - Q1 22 net profit >30% ahead of consensus and RBI on robust set of results (positive) PL: PGNiG - The Board proposed not to distribute any dividends for 2021 (neutral) RO: Banca Transilvania, BRD-GSG - National Bank of Romania raises key interest rate by 75 bps to 375 bps (positive) RU: Gazprom - Ukraine halts t...
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