The weekly navigator

Key takeaways from last week: 1) Creades sold its 12% ownership in PriceRunner to Klarna at 2.9x invested capital after owning it for only seven months (522% IRR); 2) VEF is getting rewarded for its track record and we see ~20% 12-month forward NAV growth with several potential NAV catalysts; and 3) Kinnevik published a ESG-linked financing framework.

The weekly navigator

Key takeaways from last week: 1) we share our views on recently listed Flat Capital; 2) Kinnevik invested in food-tech company N!CK’S; 3) Kinnevik saw insider buying by the CEO; and 4) Lundbergs and Industrivärden continued to gradually build positions in their jointly owned holdings.

The weekly navigator

Key takeaways from last week: 1) we continue to see attractive risk/reward in Investor; 2) Kinnevik once again met high expectations in its Q3 results; 3) Industrivärden proposed to cancel 3.3m A shares; and 4) Kinnevik and VNV-owned Babylon started trading on the NYSE, which we believe could become a NAV catalyst.

Investor (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Ideal portfolio anchor at good value

We continue to like the short-, medium-, and long-term investment case in Investor, which in our view offers: 1) sustainable NAV outperformance characteristics (we expect 12% 12-month forward growth in NAV); 2) strong balance-sheet and cash-flow (cSEK80bn investment capacity following the SOBI divestment) to sustainably grow dividends; and 3) a 19% discount to our estimated NAV, which highlights the attractive value versus large-cap peers at a 7% premium. We reiterate our BUY and our SEK230 targ...

Investor - Miss in Patricia no cause for major concern

Patricia 9% below ABGSCe, mainly due to Mölnlycke No fundamentally meaningful changes from new policies HOLD: Moderately attractive NAV outlook and valuation

Investor - Q3 slightly below ABGSCe, Mölnlycke weighed

NAV -0.5% vs. ABGSCe Patricia EBITDA -9% vs. ABGSCe, driven by Mölnlycke Marginally negative overall for the stock

The weekly navigator

Key takeaways from last week: 1) we upgraded Industrivärden to BUY (HOLD) on our view of an attractive short-term risk/reward; 2) in line with its growth strategy, Kinnevik committed to selling VillageMD shares worth USD340m; and 3) VEF-owned Creditas reported strong, if not outstanding, Q3 results on the way to an IPO in 2022e.

The weekly navigator

Key takeaways from last week: 1) as Kinnevik- and VNV Global-owned Babylon approaches its IPO, it has secured an additional USD200m sustainability-linked investment; and 2) we continue to like Aker, believing it represents value in disguise.

The weekly navigator

Key takeaways from last week: 1) high activity in VEF’s emerging market fintech portfolio, where Konfio and TransferGo announced new funding rounds, driving a ~10% NAV uplift; and 2) Kinnevik-owned robo-advisor Betterment raised USD160m in a new funding round at a USD1.3bn valuation.

The weekly navigator

Key takeaways from last week: 1) Handelsbanken proposed an extraordinary dividend in the form of 30.5m A-shares in Industrivärden, which should slightly strengthen the Lundberg sphere’s influence (see our chart of the week on page 2); 2) Latour was an anchor investor in CTEK, which soared ~100% on its first day of trading; and 3) Svolder saw insider buying by the CFO.

Investor - Q2: Solid quarter but slightly below ABGSCe

NAV -0.5% vs. ABGSCe Patricia EBITDA -3% our estimate We consider this a neutral event for the stock

Investor - Winners occasionally lose too

Q2e has been overall decent but should be no shocker Recent outperformance driven by lower NAV discount Down to HOLD: Less attractive outlook and high valuation

Weekly NAV update

The main takeaways from last week include: 1) Investor via Patricia Industries acquired automation company Piab; 2) Latour continued its add-on acquisition strategy by acquiring Johnson Level & Tool for Hultafors, yet its shares traded down 7%, thus resulting in a 5% discount increase; and 3) Lundbergs and Mr. Lundberg increased their holdings in SHB, acquiring 3m A-shares combined. Our sector top picks remain Investor and Kinnevik.

Northern Lights

Weekly NAV update

We recently we raised our target price to SEK470 (460) and reiterated BUY for Investor due to its Q1 earnings, which supported our positive view of the case for further recovery signs in Patricia Industries. Other sector highlights from last week include: 1) significant discount increase in Industrivärden (currently at 18%); and 2) Ericsson, comprising 5% of Industrivärden’s portfolio and 4% of Investor’s, soared 15% due to strong margin improvements, signalling that cost cuts are material...

Investor (Buy, TP: SEK470.00) - (Almost) back on track

We keep our BUY recommendation and have raised our target price to SEK470 (460) following the Q1 results as: 1) we see signs of improvement in key holdings and FX tailwinds leave us 16% ahead of Investor’s values for Patricia Industries and EQT; 2) its continued strong cash flows and sound financial position give it ample investment capacity; 3) our updated positive view on 50% of the portfolio; and 4) the current discount to NAV of 27% (DNBe) does not reflect its track record, active ownershi...

Weekly NAV update

Industrivärden kicked off the Q1 earnings season last week with limited surprises. It highlighted a continued focus on value creation in the existing portfolio whereas deleveraging remains a key focus area. Other sector highlights from last week mainly revolved around Kinnevik, where GFG reported its Q4 2017 figures while it also increased its ownership in Livingo. Our sector top picks remain Investor and Kinnevik.

Weekly NAV update

Last week our sector top picks Kinnevik and Investor had the best share price performances. While news flow was limited, we highlight: 1) Investor’s unlisted Patricia Industries completed the acquisition of healthcare holding, Sarnova, with an 86% majority stake; 2) Kinnevik holding Qliro’s shares (0.5% of the portfolio) lost 11% after it issued a profit warning; 3) narrowing discounts at Kinnevik and Investor; and 4) Industrivärden’s Q1 results are due out Monday, 9 April.

Weekly NAV update

In a volatile OMXS, the sector recovered from the previous week’s negative share price performances. While news flow was limited this week, we highlight: 1) dividend inflows increasing sector discounts slightly; 2) Kinnevik, Latour and Industrivärden traded strong; 3) Kinnevik’s discount narrowed by 2.4%-points; and 4) Latour’s holding in Tomra jumped 13.7% on plans in the UK for a plastic bottle deposit scheme. Our sector top picks remain Kinnevik and Investor.

Weekly NAV update

Key takeaways from last week: 1) the downbeat OMXS had an adverse impact on the valuations of the sector as our entire coverage saw increased discounts; 2) Kinnevik’s holding MTG announced that it will split into two companies, in line with our most likely scenario; 3) Latour continues to build its stake in Alimak; and 4) Investor CEO Johan Forsell again highlighted that elevated asset prices make it challenging to add new companies to its portfolio. Our sector top picks remain Kinnevik and In...