Q1'25: no signs of commercial inflection

Weak Q1, but strong momentum towards 2026

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK150.00) - Q1 was a supportive non-event

Q1 EBIT was NOK-43m, slightly below our forecast, with low seasonal profits due to winter effects in the asphalt operations. This is a seasonally insignificant quarter for the company due to the winter season, and, for context, we expect 2025 EBIT of NOK1.7bn. Order intake and backlog were the Q1 strong points. With the results and commentary supportive of our earnings forecasts, we have made minor estimate changes on the group level and reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK15...

Veidekke ASA: 1 director

A director at Veidekke ASA bought 2,200 shares at 147.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

PTP below expectations offset by strong order intake

Entering 2025 with a strong portfolio

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK160.00) - Seasonal low despite mild winter

Q1 is typically the low season for Veidekke on Nordic winter effects and a seasonal EBIT margin decline in the Infrastructure division (including asphalt). Despite the mild winter in the Nordics in Q1, we expect the positive impact to be limited as weather effects tend to affect Q4 more than Q1. We expect zero EPS for Q1. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK160 target price.

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.00) - Softer-than-expected earnings

Although Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, operating expenses were higher (partly due to borderline one-off costs; R&D-related for an EMA facility inspection). We have lowered our sales forecasts for Pepaxti in Europe. However, we believe 2025 will be important for the company, as sales should start to ramp up in Italy and Spain. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK2.0 (2.5).

Q4 report: weak upward trend

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK160.00) - DPS beat, but valuation getting fair

The reported Q4 EPS was 5% below our forecast, but 3% above when adjusted for a Swedish goodwill write-down. The company proposed a NOK9 DPS for 2024, given its strong net cash position. We have made minor forecast changes, but as we publish 2027 estimates, we have rolled forward our valuation, and raised our target price to NOK160 (155) but downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

Better orders

Headline figures and dividend above

Q4e: Improving market outlook

Construction markets at the bottom

Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations

Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK155.00) - Above consensus on Q4e EBIT

We are 5% above consensus EBIT and 6% above on EPS, assuming broadly flat EBIT margins YOY. Given Veidekke’s solid cash position, we continue to expect a high DPS ratio and attractive EV/EBIT. We expect M&A to be a key catalyst that could boost EBIT and EPS in 2025. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK155 (140) on updated peer valuation.

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Germany leads Q3 sales miss

Q3 sales were roughly half the level we expected – admittedly from a small base, but still a concern for us, since the miss was led by Germany, with much slower growth than recently. However, operating expenses were also less than we forecast, leaving an operating loss of SEK61m, a fraction better than our cSEK-63m. End-Q3 cash was SEK250m, which the company said would see it to positive cash flow in 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (4.5) on increased uncertain...

Steady and strong performance

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Q3 revenues below, EPS above

While Q3 revenues missed expectations, higher order intake than expected left the order backlog 10% above our estimate. Despite lower volumes, the EBIT margin beat our forecast, led by the Norwegian Infrastructure division, particularly its portfolio of large civil engineering orders and the asphalt operations. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our SOTP-based target price to NOK140 (135).