reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tariffs & Semicap equipment: the baseline & what’s next.
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on semicap equipment with more precision. This follows our recent deep dives on the impact on Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD/Intel. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24 – Memory: AI HBM accelerating, cycle elsewhere close to a b...
Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. DRAM COGS increased 7% QoQ, with HBM up 65%, accounting for virtually all the growth. HBM demand remains strong, with revenues expected to more than double in 2025. The non-datacenter outlook is still blea...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24 – Semicap: everyone aims to gain share in a muted WFE marke...
Today, we are publishing the Semicap Equipment section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Semicap equipment revenues were up 10% QoQ with non-Chinese spending recovering and Chinese spending beginning to decline. Vendors expect Chinese spending to decline significantly in 2025 but st...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24 – Hyperscale & Cloud: material capex revisions, now consist...
Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Hyperscale revenues grew 11% YoY, with cloud services stabilizing in the mid-20%, driven by strong demand for both traditional & AI infrastructure. Capex grew 73% YoY and 25% QoQ, 11% above con...
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Technology: Semiconductor Industry 2025 Outlook
Following the recent results season where several leading semiconductor and SPE companies globally produced either disappointing results or guidance, we look at where the semiconductor industry is at present, where it looks to be headed in 2025 and identify opportunities in the Japanese IC / SPE space.
005930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO. LTD.
TSFA TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD. SPONSORED ADR
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION
TER TERADYNE INC.
ORCL ORACLE CORPORATION
ON ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
COHR COHERENT INC.
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
7751 CANON INC.
9697 CAPCOM CO. LTD.
6383 DAIFUKU CO. LTD.
7735 SCREEN HOLDINGS CO. LTD
5803 FUJIKURA LTD
6861 KEYENCE CORPORATION
6501 HITACHI LTD.
000660 SK HYNIX INC
6920 LASERTEC CORP.
6728 ULVAC INC.
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
6902 DENSO CORPORATION
6701 NEC CORP.
7731 NIKON CORP.
7201 NISSAN MOTOR CO. LTD.
7105 MITSUBISHI NICHIYU FORKLIFT
6963 ROHM CO. LTD.
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
6758 SONY CORPORATION
6857 ADVANTEST CORP.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
7203 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
AIR AIR PARTNER PLC
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
00981 SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING INTERNATIONAL CORP.
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
3993 PKSHA TECHNOLOGY INC.
6600 JT KIOXIA HOLDINGS (6600 JT)
ASO ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS
CRSR CORSAIR GAMING
WOLF WOLFSPEED INC
TSE: 2980 SRE HOLDINGS CORP
688728 GALAXYCORE INC
688234 SICC CO LTD
6526 SOCIONEXT INC
6526 JT SOCIONEXT (6526 JT)
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
ACCL DOLOMITE HOLDINGS LTD
- Blair Levin
- Dan Salmon
NSR Tech Policy: Google and the Antitrust State of Play
Last week and this week there was and will be significant activity in two antitrust cases against Google. In this note, we provide an update of what happened, what will happen, various outcomes investors should be thinking about and other cases involving Google and Antitrust.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 2Q24 – Memory: COGS up, inventories down, gross margins up. Cycl...
Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 24th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Cloud Infrastructure, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, Foundry, and Semicap Equipment. Industry gross m...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q23 – Memory: manufacturer inventories are the last piece of th...
Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 22nd Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 130 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Cloud Infrastructure, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, Foundry, and Semicap Equipment. The recovery is...
- Jonathan Chaplin
The future of mobility and convergence – Day Two
We just wrapped up the second day of the BCG and New Street Research Future Series conference, which this year was focused on the Future of Mobility and Convergence in the Era of AI . The second day featured discussions with over 30 companies, including AT&T, British Telecom, Deutsche Telekom, Frontier, Globalstar, Liberty Global, Omnispace, Recon Analytics, Samsung, Telecom Italia, and Vodacom.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Consensus gets something wrong about memory. Expect major beats in the...
With AI cluster deployments, we have showed overall datacenter spending will be very strong in the next 5 years, and drivers of increase in memory intensity are, if anything, getting stronger. In that context, we expect memory COGS, which is the only metric reflecting the actual deployment of memory content, to grow ~20% p.a. in coming years. Our analysis this frontally conflicts with consensus expectations, and we anticipate significant and steady revisions of expectations and record valuatio...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 2Q23 – Memory: bottom confirmed, but recovery will take time.
Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 20th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 130 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Smartphones, Automotive, Cloud Infrastructure, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, Foundry, and Semicap Equipment. Mem...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Transition to Gate All Around in two simple slides
As a follow-up to the work we published last week on upcoming technology migrations at the top 3 semiconductor manufacturers, we pulled together two simple slides to explain how the transition to Gate All Around is likely to affect competitive dynamics.
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