Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on semicap equipment with more precision. This follows our recent deep dives on the impact on Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD/Intel. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.
Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. DRAM COGS increased 7% QoQ, with HBM up 65%, accounting for virtually all the growth. HBM demand remains strong, with revenues expected to more than double in 2025. The non-datacenter outlook is still blea...
Today, we are publishing the Semicap Equipment section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Semicap equipment revenues were up 10% QoQ with non-Chinese spending recovering and Chinese spending beginning to decline. Vendors expect Chinese spending to decline significantly in 2025 but st...
Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Hyperscale revenues grew 11% YoY, with cloud services stabilizing in the mid-20%, driven by strong demand for both traditional & AI infrastructure. Capex grew 73% YoY and 25% QoQ, 11% above con...
Following the recent results season where several leading semiconductor and SPE companies globally produced either disappointing results or guidance, we look at where the semiconductor industry is at present, where it looks to be headed in 2025 and identify opportunities in the Japanese IC / SPE space.
Last week and this week there was and will be significant activity in two antitrust cases against Google. In this note, we provide an update of what happened, what will happen, various outcomes investors should be thinking about and other cases involving Google and Antitrust.
Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 24th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Cloud Infrastructure, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, Foundry, and Semicap Equipment. Industry gross m...
Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 22nd Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 130 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Cloud Infrastructure, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, Foundry, and Semicap Equipment. The recovery is...
We just wrapped up the second day of the BCG and New Street Research Future Series conference, which this year was focused on the Future of Mobility and Convergence in the Era of AI . The second day featured discussions with over 30 companies, including AT&T, British Telecom, Deutsche Telekom, Frontier, Globalstar, Liberty Global, Omnispace, Recon Analytics, Samsung, Telecom Italia, and Vodacom.
With AI cluster deployments, we have showed overall datacenter spending will be very strong in the next 5 years, and drivers of increase in memory intensity are, if anything, getting stronger. In that context, we expect memory COGS, which is the only metric reflecting the actual deployment of memory content, to grow ~20% p.a. in coming years. Our analysis this frontally conflicts with consensus expectations, and we anticipate significant and steady revisions of expectations and record valuatio...
Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 20th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 130 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Smartphones, Automotive, Cloud Infrastructure, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, Foundry, and Semicap Equipment. Mem...
As a follow-up to the work we published last week on upcoming technology migrations at the top 3 semiconductor manufacturers, we pulled together two simple slides to explain how the transition to Gate All Around is likely to affect competitive dynamics.
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