Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Happy to put Q1 behind us

Alligo’s Q1 results were mixed, with the model far from immune to weak markets but now more integrated and enhanced, positioning the company for profitable growth when demand recovers. We find its >10% EBITA margin target ambitious but realistic in a 2026e perspective, and see an industrial roll-up case evolving with recent acquisitions at attractive valuations. We reiterate our BUY and SEK180 target price.

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Ready to press accelerator

Alligo’s Q4 was mixed but broadly in line with our expectations, with weaker market demand offset by ‘self-help’ initiatives. We find the now better-integrated and enhanced Alligo model balancing the weak Nordic market well, also being well positioned for profitable growth when demand recovers. We view Alligo’s >10% EBITA margin target as ambitious but realistic. We see a solid business-improvement case, and reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK180 (135).

Momentum Group AB: 1 director

A director at Momentum Group AB bought 52,855 shares at 95.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK135.00) - Solid business-improvement case

The Q3 results were in line with our expectations, with weaker market demand offset by ‘self-help’ initiatives. Alligo is readying for a weaker Nordic market, but highlighted its track record of taking market share during tougher periods, and we believe it is well positioned to face looming challenges. We still view Alligo’s >10% EBITA margin target as ambitious but realistic. We see a solid business-improvement case, and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK135 (145).

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK145.00) - ‘Self-help’ providing support

Alligo reported a stronger than expected Q2, even as market demand appears to be slowing. Near-term, the company is preparing for a weaker Nordic market, but it highlighted its legacy of taking market share during tougher periods, and we believe it is well positioned to face coming challenges. We still view Alligo’s EBITA margin target of >10% as ambitious but realistic. We see an attractive business-improvement case, and reiterate our BUY and SEK145 target price.

Northern Lights

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK145.00) - Facing weaker markets

Q1 matched expectations, with organic growth and EBITA margin expansion. Near-term, Alligo is preparing for a weaker Nordic market, but highlights its legacy of taking market share in tougher periods, and is now facing coming challenges from a strong position. We still view Alligo’s EBITA margin target of >10% as ambitious, but realistic. We see an attractive business improvement case, reiterating our BUY and SEK145 target price.

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK145.00) - More integrated and efficient

The Q4 results again surprised on the upside, with solid organic growth and EBITA margin expansion YOY. With its internal platform in place, Alligo looks in better shape to weather a potential recession through its ‘self-help’ efficiency. We see its medium-term EBITA margin target of >10% as ambitious but realistic. We still see an attractive business improvement case, and reiterate BUY, raising our target price to SEK145 (140).

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - ‘Self-help’ efficiency potential

Q3 results again surprised to the upside, with volume growth and EBITA margin expansion. With its internal platform in place, Alligo is in much better shape to weather a potential recession by realising its ‘self-help’ efficiency. We see its medium-term EBITA margin target of >10% as ambitious but realistic. Due to weaker confidence indicators, we have [“lowered our”?] forecasts but still see an attractive business improvement case. We reiterate our BUY but cut our target price to SEK140 (165).

Nothern Ligths

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK165.00) - ‘Historic Monday’ went well

The Q2 results surprised on the upside as ‘historic Monday’, involving the integration of the main Swedish operating platform (ERP, logistics, pricing), went well, thereby creating the structure for future internal efficiency extraction. We see the medium-term EBITA margin target of more than 10% as ambitious but realistic, adding to the investment case. We have tweaked our forecasts and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK165 (200) on lower multiples.

Northern Lights

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Eventful Monday coming up

The Q1 results were in line with our expectations but all eyes are now on 2 May, with the integration of the main Swedish operating platform creating the future structure for internal efficiency extraction. We see the >10% medium-term EBITA margin target as ambitious but realistic, adding attraction to the investment case. We reiterate our BUY and SEK200 target price.

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Value-creation opportunities

The split of Alligo is now complete, leaving two separate entities: Alligo (RemainCo) and Momentum Group (NewCo). We have updated our Alligo forecasts for the non-cash dividend and spin-off of Momentum Group to shareholders. We see an attractive internal efficiency and growth case in Alligo (the remaining industrial components distributor/reseller operation) with ambitious, but realistic targets. We reiterate our BUY, with an adjusted target price of SEK200 (255).

Alligo (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Getting ready for the break-up

Alligo’s Q4 was solid but investor interest is now directed towards the H1e split of the group. We see it as a catalyst to expose the value potential, with the larger Alligo a growth and internal-efficiency extraction case, and the smaller C&S potential consolidator of the fragmented Nordic industrial service sector. We reiterate our BUY and SEK255 target price.

Momentum Group (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Split on track for H1 2022

Q3 saw another QOQ improvement, with Alligo reporting a positive volume contribution and Component & Service (C&S) seeing the payback from acquisitions. We view the H2 2022e split of the group as a catalyst to expose the full value potential, with the larger Alligo a growth and internal efficiency extraction case, and the smaller C&S a ‘buy and build’ platform for consolidating the fragmented Nordic industrial service sector. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK255 (230).

Momentum Group (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Value drivers in action in Q2

Q2 showed strength, with Alligo seeing efficiency gains and Component & Service (C&S) rapid payback from its acquisitions. We view the potential splitting of the group as a catalyst to exposing its full value potential, with the larger Alligo a combined growth and internal efficiency extraction case and the smaller C&S a profitable platform for consolidating the fragmented Nordic industrial service sector. We reiterate our BUY and SEK230 target price.

Momentum Group (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Split to expose value potential

Q1 was broadly in line with our expectations, and we have made only minor forecast changes. We see the potential splitting of the group as a catalyst to expose its full value potential, with the larger Alligo being a combined growth and internal efficiency extraction case and the smaller Component & Service (C&S) a profitable platform for consolidating the fragmented Nordic industrial service sector. We reiterate our BUY and SEK230 target price.

Momentum Group (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Hidden gem set to be fully expo...

We see the potential split-up and non-cash dividend of the Component & Service operation (C&S) as a catalyst for exposing the full potential within Momentum Group, following a proven model of value creation. We have made minor forecast changes pre-Q1, but raised our target price to SEK230 (190), with C&S a ‘hidden gem’ in our view, now being fully exposed as an SME acquisition growth opportunity. BUY reiterated.

Momentum Group (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - FCF and acquisition momentum

Momentum Group’s Q3 marked the end of the shortened FY2020, and we have updated our forecasts to reflect the improved performance, recent acquisitions and new reporting structure. The three-year time frame to achieve a 10% margin in the Tools-Swedol area, now combined with better acquisition momentum in the already well-performing Component & Service area, indicates strong value-creation potential in our view. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK190 (170).