Debt burden closing in

Significant increase in net LTV

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions

This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Q3 and rental KPIs in focus

This week, reporting season was in full swing, with nine covered companies reporting Q3 results. Overall, the results were mixed, while net lettings and vacancy rates were main points of interest given the current weak rental markets. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Shifted coverage, net-letting miss, potential residential market catal...

This week, we shifted our coverage from KCM Properties to Logistea and reinstated a recommendation with a BUY and SEK20 target price. In other news, Entra reported soft Q3 results, while Atrium Ljungberg’s were more neutral, and we see a potential catalyst for the Swedish residential market at the start of November. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.70% for 2024e and 5.17% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Keen eye on vacancy rates

Interest rates have seemingly peaked, and more cuts are expected. Given the level at which rates are set to stabilise, we still expect some upward pressure on book value yields. NAV-wise, this is likely to be offset by rental growth and retained earnings, but our base case is limited growth in 2024–2025e. Rental KPIs remain the key focus, as vacancy rates continue to rise, particularly for offices, but so far rental prices have held firm. We maintain our neutral sector stance, with Castellum and...

Sweden: Sentiment going from good to great

Next six months to show positive est. revisions. BUY the forward-leaning compounders with firepower. Pandox up to BUY (Hold), Hufvudstaden down to SELL (Hold)

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Light at the end of the tunnel

Bond buybacks driving positive NAV q-o-q. SOTP valuation shows huge sensitivity and visibility remains low: HOLD, TP SEK 7 (4).

SamhAllsbyggnadsbolaget I Norden AB: 1 director

A director at SamhAllsbyggnadsbolaget I Norden AB sold 6,568,462 shares at 8.126SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 77/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the ...