Actic Group AB: 1 director

A director at Actic Group AB sold 5,351,600 shares at 4.740SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

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Actic Group AB (No_rec, TP: SEK) -

We have discontinued coverage of Actic Group. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

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Actic Group AB (Hold, TP: SEK25.00) - Re-establishing its FCF credenti...

2019 was a transition year for Actic, but in the Q4 report we see signs of a reversal of the membership erosion trend and much-improved FCF generation; however, the weak Q4 personal training (PT) sales suggests Actic still has some way to go before its operations run smoothly. Our forecasts indicate that Actic should re-build its FCF-generation credentials, but we reiterate our HOLD, waiting for the efficiency measures to take effect. We have raised our target price to SEK25 (23) on peer group v...

Actic Group AB (Hold, TP: SEK23.00) - Awaiting better trends

With Actic’s Q2 pre-announced, headline numbers were in line. Actic’s efficiency programme (net earnings impact of SEK40m–50m) and “up-or-out” programme for low-performing clubs (another SEK12m–15m) offer support to 2020–2021e, with 2019 now seen as a transition year, in our view. We reiterate our HOLD, waiting for the efficiency moves to take hold and the membership erosion to reverse, and have cut our target price to SEK23 (30). However, a 2020e 8.7% FCF yield or (10.8% pre-expan...

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Actic Group AB (Hold, TP: SEK30.00) - Proof is in eating the pudding

Actic’s implementation of IFRS16 required a number of interactions with management to clarify the underlying trend. Although 2019 now looks to be more of a transition year, its underlying FCF capacity remains a hallmark even as the weak membership growth weighs on our forecasts. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK30 (43). However, a 2020e 11.5% FCF yield or (14.0% pre-expansion capex) highlights the mid-term attraction.

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Actic Group AB (Buy, TP: SEK43.00) - New CEO making his mark

Actic’s new CEO, Anders Carlbark, signalled focus on average revenue per member rather than membership growth, cutting into our 2019–2021e FCF generation. At the same time, a slower pace of organic club openings makes sense to us, particularly if balanced with attractive acquisitions, better utilising the underlying FCF capacity, which was re-established in 2018. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK43 (48) with a 2019e FCF yield of 12.8% highlighting the attractive inve...

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Actic Group AB (Buy, TP: SEK48.00) - Costly membership stabilisation

The warm summer continues to take its toll on Actic’s membership base and average revenue per member (ARPM). A slower pace of organic club openings makes sense to us, particularly if balanced with attractive acquisitions. However, higher operating and customer-acquisition costs hampered growth in FCF, even as Actic’s reported Q3 numbers showed its true strength. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK48 (SEK56). A 2019e FCF yield of 11.2% highlights the main attraction in ...

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Actic Group AB (Buy, TP: SEK56.00) - Lower organic ambition drives FCF

Actic’s membership and ARPM sweltered in the hot weather in Q2. Targeting slower organic club openings makes sense to us, and while we have trimmed our 2018–2020e EPS by 3–8%, lower capex and new opening costs translate into 14–16% increases in our FCF forecasts, bulking up the group’s financial muscle for acquired growth. We reiterate our BUY and SEK56 target price, with a 2018e FCF yield of 12.0% highlighting the main attraction in the investment case.

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Actic Group AB (Buy, TP: SEK56.00) - Acquisitions delivering

Actic’s Q1 was a little mixed with solid integration of recent acquisitions and better cost control balanced by a slightly weaker underlying ARPM growth. Organic growth still seems costly while Actic’s acquisition track record looks solid, suggesting a change to future capital allocation. The lack of focus on this small-cap growth story has led to an attractive valuation of 10.7% 2018e FCF yield (15.6% pre-expansion capex). We retain our BUY; target price lowered to SEK56 (57.5).

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Actic Group AB (Buy, TP: SEK57.50) - Plenty of New Year’s resolution...

Actic’s Q4 results and underlying membership base were stable, with improving FCF before expansion capex and management indicating a good start to Q1, adding +7,500 new members (net). The lack of investor focus on this small-cap growth case has resulted in a weak share price performance to date; however, a 2018e FCF yield of 10.9% (15.7% pre-expansion capex) suggests an especially attractive entry point. We keep our BUY recommendation and SEK57.50 target price.

Actic Group AB (Buy, TP: SEK57.50) - Getting in shape for 2018

Actic’s Q3 results were in line with our forecasts, with management sending a more confident message as membership development has stabilised and the recent value-enhancing acquisition of MåBättre shows the potential in deal-making. The lack of investor focus on this small-cap growth case has resulted in a weak share price performance to date; however, a 2018e FCF yield of 11.5% (16.6% pre-expansion capex) suggests an attractive entry point. We keep our BUY recommendation and SEK57.5 target ...