Q1'25: no signs of commercial inflection

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK48.00) - Focus on Vyepti sales

We forecast Q1 sales c0.5% above consensus and an adj. EBITDA margin of 31.3%. We expect the strategic brands sales to rise by 18.3% YOY, including Vyepti sales of DKK913m (c2.2% above consensus). We forecast unchanged 2025 guidance for CER figures. From the pipeline, the FDA AdCom for Rexulti in PTSD is still unscheduled and the PROCEED trial has recently been expanded to additional IV doses. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to 48 (56).

BioArctic AB: 3 directors

Three Directors at BioArctic AB bought 3,120 shares at between 163.200SEK and 164.700SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over th...

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.00) - Softer-than-expected earnings

Although Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, operating expenses were higher (partly due to borderline one-off costs; R&D-related for an EMA facility inspection). We have lowered our sales forecasts for Pepaxti in Europe. However, we believe 2025 will be important for the company, as sales should start to ramp up in Italy and Spain. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK2.0 (2.5).

Q4 report: weak upward trend

BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Large milestones in 2025e

The Q4 report was slightly better than we expected. The royalty levels were already known, but the operating loss was below our forecast due to lower R&D and S&M spending. In 2025, BioArctic is set to receive cUSD130m in milestone payments from Bristol-Myers Squibb (due to the Brain Transporter deal) and Eisai (for EU approval as well as a sales milestone). The next important event is set to be the CHMP meeting in February that should (again) result in a positive opinion for Leqembi’s EU approva...

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - PTSD decision getting closer

Lundbeck reached the high-end of its full-year guidance, with Q4 sales of DKK5,541m and an adj. EBITDA margin of 20.8%. Strategic brands’ Q4 sales were slightly below our forecast and consensus, with only Brintellix beating our estimate. The 2025 guidance is for sales growth of 7–10% at constant exchange rates (CER) and adj. EBITDA growth of 5–11% at CER. We view the upcoming Rexulti PTSD FDA Advisory Committee Meeting (due in H1) as the next share-price catalyst. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 ...

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Solid Q4e; PTSD decision ahead

We forecast Q4 sales of DKK5,631m (consensus DKK5,629m) and adj. EBITDA of DKK1,155m (consensus DKK1,147m). For strategic brands, we estimate sales of DKK4,493m (c1.1% above consensus). We expect 2025 guidance for growth of CER sales of 3–6% and adj. EBITDA of 3–7%. We believe investor focus will be on the upcoming Rexulti PTSD FDA Advisory Committee Meeting (ADCOM), due in H1. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Positive CHMP opinion

With the positive CHMP opinion after the Q3 report, the quarterly results were a non-event. Leqembi can now be launched in the first markets in Europe in H1 2025. On the development side, BioArctic highlighted the pre-clinical data on its Brain Transporter (BT) technology, which showed the mechanism significantly increases the transport of large molecules (mAbs) across the blood brain barrier (BBB). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK350 (270), adding the EU market oppor...

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Focusing on strategic brands

The Q3 sales beat reflected a strong result in strategic brands, leading to an outperformance on adj. EBITDA. We expect continued momentum in strategic brands, with Q4e sales growth of 17.4% YOY. The 2024 guidance was narrowed for CER revenue growth of 12–14% (previously 11–14%) and CER adj. EBITDA growth of 17–20% (15–20%) and we find the top end of the guidance reachable. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Germany leads Q3 sales miss

Q3 sales were roughly half the level we expected – admittedly from a small base, but still a concern for us, since the miss was led by Germany, with much slower growth than recently. However, operating expenses were also less than we forecast, leaving an operating loss of SEK61m, a fraction better than our cSEK-63m. End-Q3 cash was SEK250m, which the company said would see it to positive cash flow in 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (4.5) on increased uncertain...

Q3 report: weak Germany weighs on sales

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Strategic brands in focus

Lundbeck recently released company consensus for Q3. Our revenue forecast of DKK5,502m is c0.5% above, driven by strategic brands (we estimate 21.6% revenue growth YOY), and we forecast an adj. EBITDA margin of 29.4% (consensus 28.9%). We expect the 2024 guidance for 11–14% revenue growth and 15–20% adj. EBITDA growth at CER to be unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - New adj. EBITDA margin target

At its CMD, Lundbeck extended its financial targets to include 2027, revised its adj. EBITDA margin target to 30%+, and guided for peak sales of cDKK9bn for Vyepti and USD1.3bn+ for Rexulti. Lundbeck provided an update on its proposed acquisition of Longboard Pharmaceuticals and R&D. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK56 (55).

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK55.00) - Executing on M&A agenda

Ahead of the CMD due on 23 October, Lundbeck today announced the intention to acquire Longboard Pharmaceuticals for USD2.5bn, and its late-stage asset bexicaserin for the treatment of Developmental and Epileptic Encephalopathies (DEEs). We view the proposed acquisition as neutral, but believe Lundbeck’s M&A track record is better than the market perceives. We reiterate our BUY, but have raised our target price to DKK55 (52) on a greater Vyepti sales potential.

BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK270.00) - Negative CHMP opinion fully reflected...

Q2 earnings included slightly higher R&D costs than we forecast. While royalties from Leqembi sales were known, the positive sales trend was overshadowed by the negative opinion for lecanemab from the CHMP earlier in Q3. We have removed our European estimates (until we know the outcome of the re-examination). However, we believe the share price reaction is overdone and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK270 (350).

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK52.00) - Solid momentum building

Q2 sales beat our forecast due to strategic brands and adj. EBITDA. The 2024 guidance was raised for revenue growth at CER to 11–14% (previously 7–10%) and adj. EBITDA growth at CER to 15–20% (10–16%), with underlying growth even stronger. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK52 (48).

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK4.50) - Sales set to be in focus

Q2 Pepaxti sales missed our estimate (SEK8.2m versus SEK10m); however, strong cash flow included a one-off (although this will be reversed in Q3), and reported end-quarter cash was higher than we forecast (adj. cash was cSEK278m, lower than we forecast). The company said adj. cash should be sufficient to take it to positive cash flow (which it still expects late-2026). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK4.50 (5.50) on the back of our estimate changes.

Q2 report: Slowly gaining market access

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK48.00) - Set for strategic brands momentum

We forecast Q2 revenue of DKK5,302m (c0.8% above consensus), driven by strategic brands (for which we forecast 19.3% revenue growth YOY), and an adj. EBITDA margin of 29.9% (consensus 29.3%). We expect the 2024 guidance to be raised for YOY LCY revenue growth of 9–12% (7–10%) and LCY adj. EBITDA growth of 11–17% (10–16%). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK48 (44).