This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.
Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.
The Q1 results were solid in our view; although the vacancy rate rose, it was from a very low level, and was therefore of limited concern. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK515 (500). In our view, Catena has (too much) firepower following its last equity raise and we would like to see more M&A, project activity, or speedy reinvestment. Following the equity raise the stock looks highly valued on a 2025–2026e P/FFO of 21–19x, but that drops to 15–14x adjusted for earnings...
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...
We maintain a neutral sector stance, but see near-term setbacks and consider risks tilted to the downside near-term due to strong sector performance in the past month, while market interest rates have risen. We expect two years of zero NAV growth, on average, due to yield expansion, and the sector theme to be deleveraging, with limited capex. We see few potential company-specific catalysts, leaving share prices largely driven by macro factors. We consider the sector fully valued near-term, at an...
This week, Citymark announced vacancies in the Stockholm office market are now higher than during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Selvaag Bolig (SELL, TP NOK25) released KPIs for Q1, where unsold inventory was at an all-time high. Norwegian house prices rose 0.9% in March and 5.9% YTD. Entra announced leases. Corem announced that it aims to issue bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.62% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.
This week, Corem, Catena and Vasakronan (which re-entered the M&A arena after a more than 5-year absence) announced property transactions, SBB saw its share price rise by 29% on the week after retiring long-term debt, and the Norwegian government unveiled a somewhat smaller budget in its latest National Transport Plan (NTP), with a weak read-across to the local construction and consultancy sector, in our view The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.54% for 2024e a...
There were several insider transactions this week. Also, SBB offered to buy back certain hybrid and senior bonds, and credit agencies lowered their ratings in response. Corem announced new leases, and a large Norwegian real estate syndicate was taken over by one of its bondholders. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.60% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.
Oncopeptides this morning announced plans for a cSEK300m fully guaranteed rights issue. This should not come as a surprise to the market as the company was very clear in its Q4 report that it had financial resources to last into Q2 2024. Due to DNB Markets’ role in the rights issue, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.
We expect flattish 2024–2025 NAVps growth for our Swedish coverage, due to too-low asset writedowns in 2023, but 7% in 2026e assuming stabilised yields. We forecast a 2024–2025 FFOps CAGR of 5%, held back by: 1) maturing interest rate hedges; 2) expected rental growth slow-down; and 3) deleveraging hurting investment capacity. However, we consider this priced in at a sector NAV median discount of 27%. We maintain a neutral sector stance, and our top picks are Catena, Castellum, Nyfosa and Pandox...
Last Q4 report and other updates Q4 reporting season for our covered names concluded this week with SBB’s results. Citycon has taken over Kista and issued a bond, and we cut our target price. Balder bought back hybrid bonds, Nyfosa is evaluating strategic options for its Söderport holding, and Pandox agreed to sell DoubleTree by Hilton Montreal. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.85% for 2024e and 5.13% for 2025e.
In line with our base-case scenario, the FDA has withdrawn the accelerated approval for Pepaxto in the US. As a result, the focus is now growth in Europe, where it has full approval. Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, but we believe the sales trend is moving in the right direction. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK5.5 (7).
Q4 reports flurry This week, Nyfosa reported solid Q4 results, but the market focused on it scrapping its dividend for 2023. Catena’s NAV grew by c7% QOQ in Q4, due to a landbank write-up, while Sagax reported 15% YOY PFPMPS growth for 2023. Corem also cut its dividend for 2023 and NAV dropped by 14% during the quarter. For KMC Properties, one-offs resulted in Q4 EBIT missing our estimate, while Citycon completed a share issue of EUR48.2m. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stock...
We reiterate our BUY following the strong Q4 results, but have lowered our target price to SEK500 (510) as we cut our 2024–2025e EPS by 3% due to higher interest rates. We liked management’s optimistic comments on near-term potential new development deals and the zoning plan progress, which drove the NAV growth of 6.6% in Q4. The stock is trading at a 2024–2025e P/FFO of 19–17x (or 14–13x adjusted for earnings from our recurring development gain).
Mixed Q4s and a minor equity raise This week, Castellum reported soft Q4 results, with net lettings of SEK-51m and soft market comments. Wihlborgs raised its DPS and carried out a modest asset writedown of only 0.5%. Hufvudstaden’s occupancy was solid, while Kojamo’s 2024 FFO guidance was below consensus. In other news, Balder said it would carry out a minor equity raise of cSEK1.2bn. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.8% for 2024e and 5.2% for 2025e.
The Q4 report was a non-event as Leqembi royalties had already been published. We believe investors will continue to focus on the Leqembi launch trajectory; however, we believe BioArctic’s pipeline will come into greater focus with the approaching start of the phase IIa trial for exidavnemab in Parkinson’s disease. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK350 (365).
Widening gap in asset writedowns This week, Fabege reported solid Q4 results, but with a rather soft rental market outlook. Wallenstam’s Q4 PFPM fell 19% YOY, and the report surprisingly included no asset writedowns, while Entra reported a 4.2% QOQ drop in asset values, taking the decline since its peak values to c16%. Pandox’s Q4 operating results were mixed, but it updated its guidance for ongoing investments, resulting in a SEK300m NOI uptick for 2026e. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yi...
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