Fjord1 AS: 1 director

A director at Fjord1 AS bought 11,871,756 shares at 51.997NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Fjord1 (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Treading water

With a backlog above NOK22bn in its key Ferry segment (home to c95% of EBITDA), Fjord 1 stands out as a defensive holding. However, near-term amendments to covenants are needed to bridge the impact of delayed payments for infrastructure and weak results from the Tourism segment and Widerøe. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK40 target price.

Northern Lights

Fjord1 (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Mixed report

We consider this a mixed report, including underlying results slightly above expectations, but net profit below (primarily due to heavy losses in Widerø). The company reiterated its 2020 revenue guidance, but said that due to delayed payments on infrastructure it had reached amendment to its bank facility and would start a dialogue with bondholders. We expect 2–3% positive revisions to consensus EBITDA, and believe a neutral share price reaction is warranted.

Fjord1 (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Ferry resilient, but Q1 no trigger

We remain lukewarm ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 13 May). We expect below-guidance revenue growth due to a negative impact from Covid-19 on its Catering and Tourism business, while its Ferry operations remain fairly resilient due to gross contracts. We reiterate our HOLD and target price of NOK40.

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Fjord1 (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Weak Ferry margin

We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price on FJORD1 to NOK40 (35). Although the Q4 results added limited confidence in the near-term earnings outlook and multiples, we believe the stock will be supported by the recent major shareholders’ bid for shares at NOK45. We note that the stock is selling below our SOTP of NOK56 share.

Fjord1 (Hold, TP: NOK35.00) - Ferry EBITDA margin disappoints

We consider this a weak report for Fjord1, with the Q4 results below estimates, driven by a weaker than expected Ferry margin and start-up costs in its tourism business, only partly offset by IFRS16 effects in its passenger boat segment. We expect consensus 2020e EBITDA to come down by 5%, and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.

Fjord1 (Hold, TP: NOK35.00) - Waiting for electric margins

We remain lukewarm ahead of the Q4 results (due at 07:00 CET on 26 February). We expect a weak ferry margin and cautious EBITDA margin guidance for 2020, reflecting the high start-up costs and delays to deliveries of electric ferries, leading to higher fuel costs. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK35 target price.

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Fjord1 (Hold, TP: NOK35.00) - Havila Holding AS reverse bid at NOK45/s...

A subsidiary of Havila Holding AS has made a reverse bid for 15m Fjord 1 shares at NOK45/share. From a near-term share price perspective, we believe the bid is a positive for Fjord 1; however, longer-term we are concerned that the strategy would dilute what has been the key attraction in Fjord 1, and increase funding risk.

Fjord1 (Hold, TP: NOK35.00) - Estimates cut on weak guidance

The Q3 report was mixed, including results slightly above consensus and soft guidance for 2020, reflecting uncertainty on the timing and cost of vessel deliveries due to the challenging financial situation at Havyard. On the positive side Fjord1 has secured financing for all vessel deliveries up until Q1 2020. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK35 (40) to reflect estimate cuts.

Northern Lights

Fjord1 (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Mixed Q3

We consider this a mixed report for Fjord1, with Q3 results slightly above consensus and soft 2020 guidance. We expect c5% negative 2020 EBITDA consensus revisions on the back of the report and believe a slight negative share price reaction is warranted.

Fjord1 (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Q3 unlikely to be a turning point

We remain lukewarm on Fjord1, expecting a weak Q3 EBITDA trend YOY hurt by the expiry of the Bjørnafjorden contract and start-up costs (results due at 07:00 CET on 20 November). We reiterate our HOLD and NOK40 target price, as we believe the weak near-term earnings trend is masking what we consider an appealing long-term holding.

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Fjord1 (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Low-quality Q2 beat

The Q2 results were slightly above expectations, owing to what we consider a low-quality beat as the underlying Ferry EBITDA margin was lower than expected. While we continue to find the long-term equity story attractive, we reiterate our HOLD recommendation and NOK40 target price as we still find the near-term earnings risk high and the multiples fair.