AUM rebound drives earnings growth

Improvement, but likely falling short

Norway: Best ideas Q2'25

May as expeced

Group sales NOK 3.1bn, spot on us and cons (NAS 0.1% better, Widerøe 2% below)

Expectations running too hot

Insurance trip: 16 insurers in three days

Non-life have price increases > inflation in all markets, most in Norway. Life insurance growth with rapid growth & dividend payments. Prefer ALMB, Sampo, Solid, Tryg among non-life; STB for life

Great deal - bond buyback

NAS calls the convertible bond and contemplates a 50% buyback. Pos: Reduced share overhang + nr of shares down ~7%.

ROE held back by too-high capital base

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK16.00) - Positive 2025 outlook

While underlying Q1 results were weaker than we expected, we still see a positive outlook for 2025, with solid bookings, a narrowed CASK guidance supported by a NOK1bn profit improvement programme by 2026, FX, and fuel tailwinds. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK16 (17) on estimate reductions.

Summer late rush, profits set to flush

Q1 below on higher cost

Clean EBIT below on higher cost (mainly fuel).

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Insurance repricing on track

Q1 PTP before amortisation was NOK1,167m, up 8% YOY, driven by strong growth in Banking and Insurance. While high sales activity had a negative impact on the insurance cost ratio, the combined ratio continued to improve through premium growth of 20% YOY, leaving Storebrand close to the 90–92% target for 2025. We have made fairly limited EPS revisions for 2026–2027e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK149 target price.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - April traffic statistics

We consider this a slightly positive report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including figures more or less in line with expectations, with a marginally lower yield offset by a higher load, and positive outlook comments with regard to summer bookings. We expect only minor changes to consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA, and believe a neutral to slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Softer operating profit, better financials

Adj PTP +5%/-2%, on better financials, but much weaker op.profit. Softer fee, insurance and opex behind the miss, financials beat. Cons.est.rev -2-4%, stock -2% to 4% on the operating profit miss

Heads-up for Q1-report, 7 May

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - April traffic statistics p...

April’s traffic statistics are due at 08:00 CET on 7 May. We are positive ahead of the report, expecting a strong yield recovery supported by Easter timing effects and easing capacity growth. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK17 (15) on positive estimate changes on our revised fuel and USDNOK assumptions.

A setback for AUM and returns

Lion Copper And Gold Corp: 1 director

A director at Lion Copper And Gold Corp bought 233,910 shares at 0.120USD and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - March traffic statistics

We consider this a slightly soft report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, with a slightly weaker load and yield for Norwegian Air only partly offset by strong performance from Widerøe. We expect consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA to come down by c1% on the back of the report and believe a neutral to slightly negative share price reaction is warranted.

March revenues 2.5% below

Group sales NOK 2.3bn, -2.5% vs us/cons on lower yield/load in NAS. Negative Easter effects, but April likely better - MTM EPS 25% above cons on lower fuel/weaker USD