reports
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras UDW rig selection
For the Petrobras tender for high-specification UDW rigs, updates suggest that it has made a rig selection. The tender was split into two categories (with and without MPD) and called for a duration of three years with start-up in September 2022. As previously reported, Seadrill had presented the lowest bid in the MPD category, and updates now suggest that two Seadrill UDW 7G drillships, West Tellus and West Carina, have been selected. The rigs were offered at dayrates of USD230k and USD245k, res...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Borr Drilling (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Treading a thin (liquidity) line
While we subscribe to the view of a (slightly) improving jackup market, management expectations of putting all delivered rigs (23) to work in 2022 look optimistic to us. Regardless of how many rigs it puts to work, we consider the near-term liquidity situation pressing, and the Q2 results provided no relief. Hence, on our view of a need for a capital injection late-2021/early-2022, high debt level and a valuation well above peers, we still see a risk the current equity eventually will be margina...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Back to normal with Petrobras
In the three Petrobras tenders for low-spec UDW rigs that had bids due late last week, things were ‘back to normal’ compared to the solid dayrates in its recent tender for high-spec UDW rigs. Now, local (and Indian) contractors emerged as the low bidders and dayrates offered were mostly in the high USD100k/low USD200k, representing an expected downtick from the recent high-spec tender. Given the low technical specification on these tenders, interest was low from international contractors with on...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
US GoM deepwater heating up
Following our US GoM deepwater market update in May, the positive trend in demand continues, and we expect further contract awards in the coming months. Based on the rollover profile, demand (both renewal and incremental) should be more than sufficient to keep the current fleet of warm rigs working in our view, and we see potential for incremental rigs to enter the region. Clean dayrates (for high-spec drillships) are mostly seen in the USD220k–250k range. Still, we believe higher levels are bei...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Higher rates for Petrobras tender
For a Petrobras tender for high-specification UDW rigs, bids were due on Friday. Unlike most other tenders, an international contractor (Seadrill), and not local contractors, provided the lowest bids. Dayrates were generally meaningfully higher than in recent Petrobras tenders, showing improved bidding discipline in the industry. For the likely awards in the tender, we see a clean rate level in the low USD200ks for 3-year duration starting late 2022, allowing for annual EBITDA generation of cUSD...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
More detail on licensing round
Ahead of the white paper on Friday, the government provided more details on offshore wind development in Norway. The bottom-fixed areas will be developed without state-aid, and awards will follow an auction in early 2022. Floating areas will be awarded on qualitative criteria and receive government support (level not yet decided). Both areas will be split into 2–3 licences, which will allow multiple consortiums to be awarded. While we believe the planned sizes (in GW) allow for critical mass, th...
1Q6 PROSAFE S.E.
PGS PGS ASA
DOF DOF ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
BWO BW OFFSHORE
PLCS POLARCUS LIMITED
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
KVAER KVAERNER ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
CGG CGG
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO MAERSK DRILLING
NE NOBLE
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Crowded and high-profile in Norway
The initial licensing rounds for offshore wind acreage in Norway are lining up to be competitive, with several high-profile local companies/consortiums already having announced their intention to participate. In addition, we would expect traditional renewables producers and international E&P companies to take part. Currently there is limited clarity on how the licensing process will work, but more details are expected in a government white paper (‘Stortingsmelding’) on 11 June. Although the winn...
1Q6 PROSAFE S.E.
PGS PGS ASA
DOF DOF ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
BWO BW OFFSHORE
PLCS POLARCUS LIMITED
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
KVAER KVAERNER ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
CGG CGG
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO MAERSK DRILLING
NE NOBLE
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Long-term UDW contract landed
Seadrill announced this morning it has been awarded the contract for Equinor’s Bacalhau development offshore Brazil. The contract is for the 7G UDW drillship West Saturn, to start drilling early-2022e, and has a 4-year duration. Based on the announced contract value, the all-in dayrate (including upgrades and integrated services) is USD260k, while we estimate the clean dayrate is around USD200k. Hence, we see an annual EBITDA contribution from this contract of USD15m–20m, plus potential bonuses....
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
US GoM could be more challenging
Over the past few days, early efforts from the Biden administration suggest offshore activity in the US GoM may start to decline in the years ahead. Although we see no impact from the 60-day permitting ban (unless it is extended), yesterday’s pause in issuing new leases while reviewing the lease policy may impact exploration activity. Following these early actions, we expect to see news flow on the topic in the coming months. Among the companies under our coverage, Transocean is the offshore dri...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Shallow help from Malaysia
In its 3-year plan, Malaysian NOC Petronas suggests the 2021–2023 jack-up count will be 7–10 rigs, compared to an average of 10 rigs for 2019–2020 and a peak of 14 rigs in early 2020. Compared to the previous plan, the new plan suggests a 45% reduction in jackup demand for 2021–2022. The only positive is that as many jack-ups rolled off contract in late 2020 and currently sit idle, the jack-up count is set to increase from the four rigs currently contracted. With a subdued future rig count, we b...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
No help from Petrobras
Our initial impression from the detailed 5-year plan from Petrobras is that there is no aid for the oil services sector in the coming years. Overall spending is seen down 28%. Capital discipline appears high, with focus on pre-salt production (Buzios), resulting in among others exploration spending down c50%, likely to hurt both seismic and drilling. Compared to what was already known, no new FPSOs were introduced, which we consider negative for subsea and drilling demand.
1Q6 PROSAFE S.E.
PGS PGS ASA
DOF DOF ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
BWO BW OFFSHORE
PLCS POLARCUS LIMITED
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
KVAER KVAERNER ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
CGG CGG
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO MAERSK DRILLING
NE NOBLE
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
More realistic market comments from US large caps
Over the past few days, US large-caps Schlumberger and Halliburton have reported Q3 numbers, with both reporting decent margins. However, it is clear that a recovery is still quite far out in time, especially with the global resurgence of Covid-19. We consider their offshore-related market commentary to be fairly realistic, seeing subdued international activity over the next 12 months. That said, we remain concerned about the offshore fundamentals even beyond this, with key clients continuing to...
1Q6 PROSAFE S.E.
PGS PGS ASA
DOF DOF ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
BWO BW OFFSHORE
PLCS POLARCUS LIMITED
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
KVAER KVAERNER ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
CGG CGG
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO MAERSK DRILLING
NE NOBLE
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Structural pair trade: SUBC vs TGS
Overweight Subsea 7 relative to TGS is in our view clearly supported by both structural E&P spending trends and valuation. Subsea 7 is leveraged towards the development cycle and has also built up a renewable business that the capital markets are likely to embrace and value at a higher multiple than its oil & gas business. It is also trading at an average c12% FCF yield for the next two years and consensus now appears sober. TGS is a pure-play on the exploration cycle, which is set to face furth...
1Q6 PROSAFE S.E.
PGS PGS ASA
DOF DOF ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
BWO BW OFFSHORE
PLCS POLARCUS LIMITED
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
KVAER KVAERNER ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
CGG CGG
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO MAERSK DRILLING
NE NOBLE
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
1Q6 PROSAFE S.E.
PGS PGS ASA
DOF DOF ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
BWO BW OFFSHORE
PLCS POLARCUS LIMITED
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
KVAER KVAERNER ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
CGG CGG
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO MAERSK DRILLING
NE NOBLE
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Soft long-term UDW rates in Brazil
Based on bids for the Petrobras 3-year tender for UDW rigs starting around mid-2021, we consider the dayrates (USD175k–200k) on the majority of the proposals for 6G and 7G rigs on soft side. This would imply a dayrate curve extending to mid-2024, which we believe is well below consensus expectations. Both local and international contractors offered rigs at these levels. Contract economics will vary among the proposed rigs due to varying needs for upgrades, as well as reactivation and mobilisatio...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Soft Petrobras capex guidance
Petrobras provided an updated E&P spending outlook following Covid-19; for 2021–2025e, it sees total E&P spending at USD40bn–50bn, down 30% from the previous 5-year plan (2020–2024). While providing no guidance by year, the plan suggests annual spending in the range of USD8bn–10bn on average, implying limited upside potential to forward spending versus recent years. While exploration guidance also has been lowered versus last year, Petrobras still plans to spend a decent amount on exploration in...
1Q6 PROSAFE S.E.
PGS PGS ASA
DOF DOF ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
BWO BW OFFSHORE
PLCS POLARCUS LIMITED
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
KVAER KVAERNER ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
CGG CGG
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO MAERSK DRILLING
NE NOBLE
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
1Q6 PROSAFE S.E.
PGS PGS ASA
DOF DOF ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
BWO BW OFFSHORE
PLCS POLARCUS LIMITED
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
KVAER KVAERNER ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
CGG CGG
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO MAERSK DRILLING
NE NOBLE
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Huge Petrobras development, but limited services need
Huge Petrobras development, but limited services need Petrobras has again highlighted the bright future of the Buzios field, part of the ‘transfer of rights area’, looking to add eight new FPSOs. From an oil service perspective, we welcome new developments but at the same time, we consider the oil service intensity for this development to be low. Wells are highly productive (40k–50k barrels/d per well), resulting in a need for few wells, which is the main demand driver for rig and subsea ...
1Q6 PROSAFE S.E.
PGS PGS ASA
DOF DOF ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
BWO BW OFFSHORE
PLCS POLARCUS LIMITED
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
E65F VALARIS PLC CLASS A
KVAER KVAERNER ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
SHLF SHELF DRILLING
CGG CGG
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
A2JAU0 BORR DRILLING
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO MAERSK DRILLING
NE NOBLE
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
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