We discontinue our coverage of the following stocks, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: AD Plastik Arena Hospitality Group Bittnet Ciech Conpet Dogus Otomotiv Ekspress Grupp Fintel Energija Immofinanz Kcell Kernel KGHM Komercijalna Banka NLB Banka Petrol Group S Immo Sava Re Shelly Group (formerly Allterco) STS Group Turk Telekom Turkcell Ulker Zagreb Stock Exchange
HEADLINES: • mBank: to book PLN 1.2bn of CHF mortgage costs in 4Q23E; 2023E earnings to break even POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB begins the easing cycle • Turkey macro: CBT hikes by 250bp to 42.5% • Georgia macro: NBG cuts the policy rate by 50bp to 9.5% • DataWalk: key takeaways from an interview with the CEO in ISBtech; sale to UEFA NEUTRAL • Conpet: 2024 transport tariffs raised NEUTRAL • Electrica, Transelectrica: 2024 tariffs approved at the recently-announced levels • Short News...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: 3Q23 on track for best year ever, 3Q beat on better cost control POSITIVE • AmRest: 3% EBITDA beat in 3Q23 on improving margins POSITIVE • Bank of Georgia: 3Q23 highlights, before the call - good quarter • Hidroelectrica: 3Q23 net profit of RON 1.2bn, 30% higher yoy and 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • Purcari Wineries: 3Q23 net profit 27% higher than our estimate, on higher other income • Conpet: 3Q23 net profit rebounds qoq and stands 9% higher yoy POSITIVE • Tr...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: beats expectations with 2Q23 delivery, implies massive upside risk to FY23E expectations • CEZ: strong 2Q beat on trading, EBITDA and net guidance unchanged POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 2Q23 - occupancy stable, FFO yield at 17%, developments could push it up to 20+% POSITIVE • CTP: 2Q23 - recurring in line, FFO guidance reiterated, leasing backdrop supportive, LTV contained POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 2Q23 results review - adjusted EBITDA +19% yoy to HUF 83.4bn, 4% above ou...
HEADLINES: • Romgaz: keeper for the longer term (stays BUY) • Turkish Airlines: 2Q23 beat, revenue environment remains very strong, costs better than expected POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 2Q23 results in line, but FY23E guidance cut NEGATIVE • Alro: deeper net loss in 2Q23, bauxite business to be sold NEGATIVE • CCC: preliminary 2Q23 adjusted EBITDA falls 27% yoy, headlines broadly as expected NEUTRAL • Brisa: takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: July sales up 27% yoy NEUTR...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: bottom line is fine, but the P&L mix disappointed NEGATIVE • NLB Group: a very strong start to the year, delivering a firm beat to consensus POSITIVE • DataWalk: preliminary 1Q23 results - sales down 23% yoy, to PLN 3.22m, 9% below our estimate NEGATIVE • AmRest: 10% EBITDA beat in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Eurocash: 8% EBITDA beat in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Richter: 1Q23 results beat supported by FX POSITIVE • MOL 1Q23 results - Upstream EBITDA weaker than expected • BRD-GSG: solid ...
HEADLINES: • Turkey strategy: Turkish gambit - May 2023 elections • OTP Bank: books very strong start to 2023E, with 1Q23E implying 20%+ ROE POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 1Q23 - good quarter, FFO yield in high teens POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: 1Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 1Q23 results - in line, except for one-off quake tax hit on NI NEUTRAL • SOK Marketler Ticaret: higher-than-expected bottom line in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Isbank: 1Q23 highlights - showing similar trends, but go...
HEADLINES: • Romanian energy: the government adopts a 60% windfall tax for oil & gas companies NEGATIVE • Conpet: 2023E transport tariffs raised by c.12% • LiveChat Software: 3Q22-23 (calendar 4Q22) preliminary results - USD 18.9m sales (+36% yoy, 22% qoq) POSITIVE • PKN Orlen: PGNiG receives PLN 7.9bn in compensation in 2022 • Polish media: WP TV audience share was at 0.61%, while CPS was at 21.58% in December 2022 NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: Play increases pre-paid prices by 31-56% from Janua...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
We raise our target price to RON 76.1 from RON 71.0 but confirm our HOLD recommendation, given strong Q1-3 2022 results, associated with higher estimates regarding transported volumes. We project an average EBITDA of RON 127.2 mn in 2022-24e vs. RON 112.0 mn in 2019-2021 and have raised our FY 22 EBIT to RON 70.9 mn and net profit to RON 67.8 mn. We believe that OMV Petroms planned maintenance work of approx. 45 days in 2023e could push the net profit to RON 63.0 mn, but it should remain at this...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: how Russia's fallout is reshaping CIS-plus • 11 bit studios: uninspiring 3Q22 EBITDA, slightly above our expectations, but below consensus NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 3Q22 EBITDA rises by a solid 26% yoy, 8% ahead of consensus POSITIVE • Krka: margins rebound qoq on Russian stockpiling, books FX revaluation losses NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 3Q22 - tenants' sales 17% above pre-pandemic levels in the summer POSITIVE • Electrica: takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call POS...
AT: Rosenbauer - Operating loss in Q3 amplified by restructuring costs, unchanged FY guidance of sales of ca. EUR 1 bn and positive EBIT requires major earnings uptick in Q4 (neutral) AT: Vienna Insurance Group - Strong earnings driven by underwriting and investment performance (neutral) DE: Encavis - Q3 22 above RBIe and consensus without EUR 30 mn provision for potential government revenue skimming, guidance confirmed (neutral) RO: Conpet - Q3 22 net profit up by 27% yoy, on the back o...
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: stellar summer, but visibility limited on 2023E (downgraded to HOLD) • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q22 results review - soft numbers, but better than expectations POSITIVE • Purcari Wineries: 3Q22 net profit at RON 14.5m, 31% above our expectations • Fondul Proprietatea: Hidroelectrica's 3Q22 results - small miss, Petrom stake reduced marginally • Conpet: 17% beat on 3Q22 net profit from higher import volumes transported • DIGI Communications: 3Q22 results - pro-forma adj...
HEADLINES: • Hungary macro: a deep downturn in the making for next year • mBank: 3Q22 - massive loss, as expected, but underlying earnings stronger than expected at the peak POSITIVE • Isbank: 3Q22 highlights - no surprises, cost control still a problem • Richter: strong 3Q on OCs, Russia/CIS and FX revaluation POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q22 results - EBITDA weaker than expected • InPost: DHL announces launching parcel machines in Poland NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: announces planned purchase of Sberbank'...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
AT: Andritz - Andritz to deliver predictive maintenance system at Indian spunlace plant (neutral) AT: Erste Group - Ceska Sporitelna in talks to buy the loan portfolio of Sberbank unit in Czechia (positive) AT: Mayr-Melnhof - Board member Andreas Blaschke resigns (neutral) RO: Conpet - Summons filed by OMV Petrom in contradictory with Conpet and ANRM (neutral)
HEADLINES: • Conpet: OMV Petrom has filed a suit against Conpet, seeking a change in tariffs NEUTRAL • Alro: selected by CE Oltenia to invest together in a 850MW gas-fired power plant NEUTRAL • ING BSK: 3Q22E preview (due out on 3 November) • Alior Bank: 3Q22E preview (due out on 4 November) • mBank: 3Q22E preview (due out on 8 November)
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