reports
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Lara Mohtadi
- Mattias Holmberg
Volvo (Sell, TP: SEK280.00) - SELL on margin normalisation
We have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) and cut our target price to SEK280 (305), based on a 2025e P/E of 12x (in line with the 10-year average). We expect adj. EPS to fall by 13% in 2025e, and have lowered our 2025–2026e adj. EBIT by 4–5%, now c16% below consensus, which we believe fails to reflect the ongoing price/mix normalisation. For Q1e, we are 7% below consensus on adj. EBIT (but roughly in line on orders and deliveries), and believe Volvo will lower its 2025 truck market guidance for North Am...
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Lara Mohtadi
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
MTRS B MUNTERS GROUP
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Mattias Holmberg
Set for spicy growth
Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
HUSQ B HUSQVARNA AB CLASS B
ALV AUTOLIV INC.
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
DOM DOMETIC GROUP AB
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
EPRO B ELECTROLUX PROFESSIONAL
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
VOLCARb VOLVO CARS
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
MTRS B MUNTERS GROUP
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Lara Mohtadi
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
MTRS B MUNTERS GROUP
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- Mattias Holmberg
Who stands to benefit?
A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
UPM UPM-KYMMENE OYJ
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
FLS FLSMIDTH & CO. A/S
KEMIRA KEMIRA OYJ
ROCK B ROCKWOOL INTERNATIONAL A/S CLASS B
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
KCR KONECRANES OYJ
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
KALMAR KALMAR
Volvo AB: 1 director
A director at Volvo AB bought 4,136 shares at 325.752SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 62/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
MTRS B MUNTERS GROUP
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Konrad Zomer
- Marc Lavaud
- Youssef Besbes
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
REL RELX PLC
BT.A BT GROUP PLC
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
RNO RENAULT SA
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
PUM PUMA SE
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
EO FAURECIA SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
ABB ABB LTD.
LONN LONZA GROUP AG
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
FR VALEO SE
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
SY1 SYMRISE AG
HM B H&M HENNES & MAURITZ AB CLASS B
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
RACE FERRARI NV
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- Konrad Zomer
- Marc Lavaud
- Youssef Besbes
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
REL RELX PLC
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
BT.A BT GROUP PLC
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
RNO RENAULT SA
APAML APERAM SA
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
PUM PUMA SE
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
EO FAURECIA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
DAI DAIMLER AG
ABB ABB LTD.
LONN LONZA GROUP AG
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
SZG SALZGITTER AG
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
FR VALEO SE
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
ERA ERAMET SA
SY1 SYMRISE AG
NDA AURUBIS AG
HM B H&M HENNES & MAURITZ AB CLASS B
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
RACE FERRARI NV
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
CPR DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO N.V.
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Mattias Holmberg
Volvo (Hold, TP: SEK305.00) - A truckload of orders
Although Q4’s soft underlying margin for Trucks supports our below-consensus view on 2025e margins, investors focused more on the solid order intake. However, with unchanged 2025 market guidance, we struggle to raise our 2025 volume forecasts and leave our estimates broadly unchanged, c7% below consensus on adj. EBIT. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK305 (300).
- Julian Dobrovolschi
- Julian Dobrovolschi
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