reports
Moody's Ratings assigns Ba3 (hyb) to National Bank of Greece's upcomin...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today assigned Ba3 (hyb) rating to National Bank of Greece S.A.'s (NBG) proposed Euro-denominated Additional Tier 1 (AT1) perpetual capital instrument with non-viability loss absorption features. The AT1 notes include a call option for the issuer after five-and-a-half y...
National Bank Of Greece: 2 directors
Two Directors at National Bank Of Greece sold 3,737 shares at between 15.315EUR and 15.600EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...
Piraeus Bank S.A: 6 directors
Six Directors at Piraeus Bank S.A sold 45,200 shares at between 8.196EUR and 8.415EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 61/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the l...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
- Thaleia Makedou
Greek Equity Strategy – 2026 outlook | Less beta, more selectivity
Fundamentals taking over – Greek equities delivered an exceptional performance in 2025, emerging as one of the strongest markets globally, with the ASE General Index up c50%. This marked the 4th consecutive year of outperformance vs the Euro Stoxx 600, a streak not witnessed in the past two decades. The magnitude of the 2025 rally inevitably sets a high base heading into 2026 (especially since the ASE is already up c6% ytd). As a result, we believe the market will transition from a beta-driven p...
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
- Thaleia Makedou
Greek Equity Strategy – 2026 outlook | Less beta, more selectivity
Fundamentals taking over – Greek equities delivered an exceptional performance in 2025, emerging as one of the strongest markets globally, with the ASE General Index up c50%. This marked the 4th consecutive year of outperformance vs the Euro Stoxx 600, a streak not witnessed in the past two decades. The magnitude of the 2025 rally inevitably sets a high base heading into 2026 (especially since the ASE is already up c6% ytd). As a result, we believe the market will transition from a beta-driven p...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Constructive but more selective
Broad earnings resilience, but no spark for upgrades… – Systemic Greek banks delivered results broadly in line with our estimates and consensus. NII momentum stabilised in 3Q (-0.2% q/q), effectively marking the trough after three consecutive quarters of deceleration, given Euribor’s plateauing. Fees posted a mild q/q decline—consistent with our forecasts—reflecting seasonal softness in payments and money transfers, while bancassurance and asset-management’s AuMs continued to expand at a strong ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Constructive but more selective
Broad earnings resilience, but no spark for upgrades… – Systemic Greek banks delivered results broadly in line with our estimates and consensus. NII momentum stabilised in 3Q (-0.2% q/q), effectively marking the trough after three consecutive quarters of deceleration, given Euribor’s plateauing. Fees posted a mild q/q decline—consistent with our forecasts—reflecting seasonal softness in payments and money transfers, while bancassurance and asset-management’s AuMs continued to expand at a strong ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Recharged by results, lifted by M&A
Q1 results spark 6% outperformance in Greek banks, led by Alpha – Q1 results triggered an 6% outperformance of Greek banks vs their EU periphery peers (and 8% vs SX7E), led by Alpha Bank (+27% since 28 Apr), followed by Optima (+22%), NBG (+14%), Piraeus (+13%), and Eurobank (+10%). The rally was earnings-driven—Alpha (+24% vs cons) and NBG (+17%) delivered standout beats—while Alpha’s momentum was further fuelled by the Astrobank and AXIA bolt-ons and, primarily, by the UniCredit stake increase...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Recharged by results, lifted by M&A
Q1 results spark 6% outperformance in Greek banks, led by Alpha – Q1 results triggered an 6% outperformance of Greek banks vs their EU periphery peers (and 8% vs SX7E), led by Alpha Bank (+27% since 28 Apr), followed by Optima (+22%), NBG (+14%), Piraeus (+13%), and Eurobank (+10%). The rally was earnings-driven—Alpha (+24% vs cons) and NBG (+17%) delivered standout beats—while Alpha’s momentum was further fuelled by the Astrobank and AXIA bolt-ons and, primarily, by the UniCredit stake increase...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Strong Q1 Delivery, Valuation Still Stuck in Catch-Up Mo...
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off 2025 with a strong set of Q1, reporting net profits of €1.26bn, down just 4% qoq but coming in 5% above our expectations and 8% ahead of consensus, with Alpha Bank and NBG leading the beat (24% and 17% vs cons, respectively). Results were supported by resilient NII (in line), tight cost control (OpEx slightly below), and a solid trading line beat. Credit quality remained stable, with average CoR broadly in line at c50bps. Sector-wide NII fell 5%...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Strong Q1 Delivery, Valuation Still Stuck in Catch-Up Mo...
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off 2025 with a strong set of Q1, reporting net profits of €1.26bn, down just 4% qoq but coming in 5% above our expectations and 8% ahead of consensus, with Alpha Bank and NBG leading the beat (24% and 17% vs cons, respectively). Results were supported by resilient NII (in line), tight cost control (OpEx slightly below), and a solid trading line beat. Credit quality remained stable, with average CoR broadly in line at c50bps. Sector-wide NII fell 5%...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Rallying with Room to Run
Strong finish to the year, with robust loan growth and earnings resilience – Greek banks delivered another solid quarter in Q4, exceeding both our and consensus estimates, supported by stronger-than-expected fee income (+4% vs cons) and lower impairments (-5% vs cons). Despite ongoing NII headwinds, NIM proved resilient at 2.65%, contracting just 15bps qoq—on faster loan repricing relative to deposits, a low deposit beta (20% on total deposits), stable lending spreads (-18bps ytd), incremental b...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Rallying with Room to Run
Strong finish to the year, with robust loan growth and earnings resilience – Greek banks delivered another solid quarter in Q4, exceeding both our and consensus estimates, supported by stronger-than-expected fee income (+4% vs cons) and lower impairments (-5% vs cons). Despite ongoing NII headwinds, NIM proved resilient at 2.65%, contracting just 15bps qoq—on faster loan repricing relative to deposits, a low deposit beta (20% on total deposits), stable lending spreads (-18bps ytd), incremental b...
Moody's Ratings upgrades National Bank of Greece S.A.'s long-term depo...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today upgraded the long-term deposit and senior unsecured ratings of National Bank of Greece S.A. (NBG) to Baa1 from Baa2, as well as the standalone Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA of the bank to baa3 from ba1. The bank's long-term Counterparty Risk Ra...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2025 outlook | Almost same story, different ye...
Repeat of 2024, with different headwinds – Following a year in which Greek equities performed broadly in line with EU periphery stocks (but better than broad EU indices), 2025 looks somewhat trickier given international headwinds (e.g. tariffs, geopolitics). Easing monetary policy is certainly a positive, in the sense that it could justify higher valuations, but the overriding driver of re-rating would be a resolution of the war in Ukraine, as is the case for the EU as a whole. On the positive s...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2025 outlook | Almost same story, different ye...
Repeat of 2024, with different headwinds – Following a year in which Greek equities performed broadly in line with EU periphery stocks (but better than broad EU indices), 2025 looks somewhat trickier given international headwinds (e.g. tariffs, geopolitics). Easing monetary policy is certainly a positive, in the sense that it could justify higher valuations, but the overriding driver of re-rating would be a resolution of the war in Ukraine, as is the case for the EU as a whole. On the positive s...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | DTC headwinds fade, dividends rise, and value beckons
Strong Q3 Results Reinforce Optimism on Lending Growth and NII Resilience - Greek banks delivered another strong quarter in Q3, surpassing our and consensus estimates, driven by higher-than-expected NII (+3% vs cons) and significantly lower impairments (-25% vs cons). Despite NII headwinds, the NIM held firm at 2.74%, driven by low deposit betas (17% of the overall deposit base), resilient lending spreads (-12 bps ytd), incremental yields from reinvested bond portfolios, and strong credit growth...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | DTC headwinds fade, dividends rise, and value beckons
Strong Q3 Results Reinforce Optimism on Lending Growth and NII Resilience - Greek banks delivered another strong quarter in Q3, surpassing our and consensus estimates, driven by higher-than-expected NII (+3% vs cons) and significantly lower impairments (-25% vs cons). Despite NII headwinds, the NIM held firm at 2.74%, driven by low deposit betas (17% of the overall deposit base), resilient lending spreads (-12 bps ytd), incremental yields from reinvested bond portfolios, and strong credit growth...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Technical factors mask dividend growth and earnings resi...
Solid fundamentals, but technical pressures have been weighing on performance – Despite consistently exceeding profit estimates in recent quarters, Greek banks have underperformed peripheral banks and the SX7E index by c20% and c5% ytd, respectively. While NII headwinds persist, the impact has been less severe than expected, with only a 1% qoq decline in Q2. Banks' resilience is further supported by improvements in asset quality, stronger fee generation driven by lending activity and a 13% ytd i...
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