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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200 The S&P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible... see chart below. Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX). Index Overview. Downside targets for the S&P 500 continue to be at...

Neil Macker
  • Neil Macker

Morningstar | Telenor Posts Mixed 2Q; Bangladesh Remains a Key Growth ...

Telenor reported another mixed quarter, as the second quarter featured stronger organic revenue growth but weaker EBITDA margins. The firm reported first-half organic revenue growth of 0.5% year over year versus our full-year projection of a 0.1% decline. We are maintaining our NOK 164 per local share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. We believe the shares are fairly valued. Telenor’s fiber service continues to expand within the home market of Norway, adding 10,000 subscribers in th...

Neil Macker
  • Neil Macker

Telenor Posts Mixed 2Q; Bangladesh Remains a Key Growth Driver

Telenor reported another mixed quarter, as the second quarter featured stronger organic revenue growth but weaker EBITDA margins. The firm reported first-half organic revenue growth of 0.5% year over year versus our full-year projection of a 0.1% decline. We are maintaining our NOK 164 per local share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. We believe the shares are fairly valued. Telenor’s fiber service continues to expand within the home market of Norway, adding 10,000 subscribers in th...

Neil Macker
  • Neil Macker

Morningstar | Telenor Remains Focused on Asia for Growth

Telenor is the incumbent telecom operator in Norway, with significant exposure to other Nordic countries. Its business generates significant free cash flow (we expect about NOK 20 billion on average annually for the next five years, excluding asset sales). Many European telecom operators have had exposure to other countries with similar cultural or geographic positions but have only recently sought to grow via expansion into emerging markets. In contrast, Telenor has benefited from a culturally ...

Neil Macker
  • Neil Macker

Telenor Remains Focused on Asia for Growth

We are placing our fair value estimate for Telenor under review. We will publish an updated report and valuation by June 15....

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telenor Under Review

We are placing our fair value estimate for Telenor under review. We will publish an updated report and valuation by June 15.

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telenor Under Review

We are placing our fair value estimate for Telenor under review. We will publish an updated report and valuation by June 15....

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telenor Reported Mixed First-Quarter Results; Shares Fai...

Telenor reported mixed first-quarter results with stronger revenue growth but weaker EBITDA margins. However, we don’t anticipate any significant changes to our NOK 164 per local share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. We believe the shares are fairly valued. The firm reported revenue growth of 1.8% year over year versus our full-year projection of a 0.1% decline. In its home market of Norway, Telenor is having success with its fiber service, which added 11,000 customers in the quar...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telenor Reported Mixed First-Quarter Results; Shares Fairly Valued

Telenor reported mixed first-quarter results with stronger revenue growth but weaker EBITDA margins. However, we don’t anticipate any significant changes to our NOK 164 per local share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. We believe the shares are fairly valued. The firm reported revenue growth of 1.8% year over year versus our full-year projection of a 0.1% decline. In its home market of Norway, Telenor is having success with its fiber service, which added 11,000 customers in the quart...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telenor Agrees to Enter Finnish Telecom Market With Acqu...

Telenor announced April 9 that it agreed to acquire a 54% position in DNA, the third-largest wireless phone company in Finland, from DNA’s two largest shareholders. Once that deal is completed, Telenor will make a general offer for all outstanding shares at EUR 20.90 per share. Telenor will initially pay EUR 1.5 billion for the 54% stake, which values DNA at about 11.1 times enterprise value/EBITDA, at the high end of phone company valuations. However, DNA is a fully converged operator, so bes...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telenor Agrees to Enter Finnish Telecom Market With Acquisition of DNA...

Telenor announced April 9 that it agreed to acquire a 54% position in DNA, the third-largest wireless phone company in Finland, from DNA’s two largest shareholders. Once that deal is completed, Telenor will make a general offer for all outstanding shares at EUR 20.90 per share. Telenor will initially pay EUR 1.5 billion for the 54% stake, which values DNA at about 11.1 times enterprise value/EBITDA, at the high end of phone company valuations. However, DNA is a fully converged operator, so bes...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | TELNY Updated Forecasts and Estimates from 29 Mar 2019

Telenor is the incumbent telecom operator in Norway, with significant exposure to other Nordic countries. Its business generates significant free cash flow (we expect about NOK 20 billion on average annually for the next five years, excluding asset sales). Many European telecom operators have had exposure to other countries with similar cultural or geographic positions, but have only recently sought to power growth through expansion into other emerging markets. In contrast, Telenor has had a cul...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telenor Looks to Bangladesh and Pakistan for Growth

Telenor is the incumbent telecom operator in Norway, with significant exposure to other Nordic countries. Its business generates significant free cash flow (we expect about NOK 20 billion on average annually for the next five years, excluding asset sales). Many European telecom operators have had exposure to other countries with similar cultural or geographic positions, but have only recently sought to power growth through expansion into other emerging markets. In contrast, Telenor has had a cul...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telenor Looks to Bangladesh and Pakistan for Growth

Telenor’s fourth-quarter revenue was a bit light of our expectations, but EBITDA margins were a bit better. Thus, we expect to maintain our NOK 164 per local share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. We believe the shares are fairly valued. While the firm’s full-year reported revenue of NOK 110.4 billion looks well below our estimate of NOK 116.9 billion, most of the shortfall is due to differences in accounting for divestitures. Adjusting for these sales, revenue was only 0.4% short...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telenor Reported Mixed Q4 Results With Revenue a Bit Lig...

Telenor’s fourth-quarter revenue was a bit light of our expectations, but EBITDA margins were a bit better. Thus, we expect to maintain our NOK 164 per local share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. We believe the shares are fairly valued. While the firm’s full-year reported revenue of NOK 110.4 billion looks well below our estimate of NOK 116.9 billion, most of the shortfall is due to differences in accounting for divestitures. Adjusting for these sales, revenue was only 0.4% short...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telenor Reported Mixed Q4 Results With Revenue a Bit Light, but Strong...

Telenor’s fourth-quarter revenue was a bit light of our expectations, but EBITDA margins were a bit better. Thus, we expect to maintain our NOK 164 per local share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. We believe the shares are fairly valued. While the firm’s full-year reported revenue of NOK 110.4 billion looks well below our estimate of NOK 116.9 billion, most of the shortfall is due to differences in accounting for divestitures. Adjusting for these sales, revenue was only 0.4% short...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telenor Increases Its Focus With Divestiture of Operations in Four Cen...

Telenor reported mixed third-quarter results, with revenue a bit light but improved EBITDA margins. We expect these items will pretty much offset each other and don’t expect to change our NOK 164 per local share fair value estimate. Our narrow moat rating is unchanged, and we believe the shares are fairly valued. Once again, our expected revenue decline of 6.4% for the full year appears much worse than the company’s reported revenue growth of 0.4%. However, the company sold its operations in...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telenor Reports Mixed 3Q Results With Weak Revenue but S...

Telenor reported mixed third-quarter results, with revenue a bit light but improved EBITDA margins. We expect these items will pretty much offset each other and don’t expect to change our NOK 164 per local share fair value estimate. Our narrow moat rating is unchanged, and we believe the shares are fairly valued. Once again, our expected revenue decline of 6.4% for the full year appears much worse than the company’s reported revenue growth of 0.4%. However, the company sold its operations in...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Telenor Reports Mixed 3Q Results With Weak Revenue but Strong Margins;...

Telenor reported mixed third-quarter results, with revenue a bit light but improved EBITDA margins. We expect these items will pretty much offset each other and don’t expect to change our NOK 164 per local share fair value estimate. Our narrow moat rating is unchanged, and we believe the shares are fairly valued. Once again, our expected revenue decline of 6.4% for the full year appears much worse than the company’s reported revenue growth of 0.4%. However, the company sold its operations in...

Allan C. Nichols
  • Allan C. Nichols

Morningstar | Telenor Delivers More of the Same in Second-Quarter Resu...

Telenor reported another mixed quarter, with revenue declining but margins holding firm. We are maintaining our fair value estimates of NOK 164 per local share and $20 per ADR as well as our narrow moat rating. We believe the shares are fairly valued. Reported revenue fell 3% year over year on a proforma basis versus our full-year projection of a 6.4% decline. However, our full-year projection uses actual 2017 results as the base and includes operations in Central and Eastern Europe for six mont...

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