HEADLINES: * Romania chartbook: mildly tougher times * MOL: 4Q17 results - no surprises NEUTRAL * GPW: start of negotiations of the boundary conditions of a sale of Aquis NEUTRAL * Forte: interview with the CEO * CEZ: nuclear regulator says there is pressure to decommission Dukovany 10 years early NEUTRAL * Ford Otosan: TRY 800m of gross dividends POSITIVE * Poland strategy: Polish mutual fund flows - inflows into Polish S/M funds accelerate * Novatek: 4Q17E earnings p...
HEADLINES: * Ford Otosan: 4Q17 review - miss on EBITDA, but ahead on net income NEGATIVE * MedLife: wage growth key factor for FY18E profitability * PGE: preliminary recurring EBITDA in line, net profit misses * Medicalgorithmics: January tests data NEUTRAL * Richter: little clarity on Esmya, but no new negatives during conference call NEGATIVE * BRD-GSG: 4Q17 results conference call takeaways NEUTRAL * EME Strategy: MSCI February QIR - no changes in the EME universe, in l...
All-in-all, we believe that the market may react negatively to Ford Otosan's 4Q17 results, given the higher EBITDA expectations of the consensus and the stock's stellar share price performance in the LTM (74% and 33% in absolute terms and relative to the BIST100, respectively). Otherwise, the results are respectable: the consensus 4Q EBITDA forecast was well ahead of what was implied by the Bloomberg 2017E EBITDA, so it is unlikely to trigger earnings downgrades for the 2018E numbers, in our vie...
HEADLINES: * Coca-Cola Icecek: might be a little flat this year (downgraded to HOLD) * Otokar: 4Q17 - strong NI beat, but operating numbers in line POSITIVE * Transgaz: FY17 results in line with expectations, 2018E budget points to decline NEGATIVE * Isbank: 4Q17 wrap up * Transelectrica: budget points to rate of return cut, decline in profit NEGATIVE * Severstal: 4Q - EBITDA & FCF ahead of estimates, but higher capex a risk for dividend outlook POSITIVE * DIGI/Magyar Tel...
Turkish companies kicked off their 4Q17 earnings season this week. After 11.1% real GDP growth in 3Q, the momentum should have eased in 4Q, in our view, while the quarter was dented by currency volatility. Still, we expect the yoy growth to have remained robust – for the non-financials under our coverage, we calculate 31% and 9% median EBITDA growth yoy and qoq, respectively. On adjusted earnings, we see 16% and flat qoq net income yoy growth.
Market performance –Turkish index the regional top performer in December. The MSCI EME gained +3.7% mom in EUR terms in December. The largest rate of return for December was realised by the Turkish ISE30 (+13.9% mom), followed by the Athens Stock Exchange index (+8.4% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+2.9%), the Hungarian BUX (+2.6%), the Czech PX index (+1.6% mom) and the Russian MIXEX (+0.8% mom), while the Romanian BET index lost 1%. Only utilities in negative territory for December. Industrials wa...
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