EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • InPost: 4Q23 strong, as expected; neutral FY24E guidance; volume acceleration in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 4Q23 review – net profit up 10% yoy, in line with preliminaries; strong 2024 backlog recorded POSITIVE • Echo Investment: 4Q23 – residential good, offices bad NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • LPP: key takeaways from the conference call on the exit from Russia, 2.0 POSITIVE • Kruk: 2023 net profit DPS proposal of PLN 18, in line with our expectations N...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Polish Auto Parts Distribution: sound recurrent growth prospects (Auto Partner downgraded to HOLD; Inter Cars stays BUY) • Kruk: 4Q23/2023 results – solid, but in line NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: books solid 2023, issues positive guidance on 2024E COR, and pays dividend one year earlier than expected POSITIVE • Romgaz: FY23 net profit 12% above profit reported with 2024E budget POSITIVE • Transelectrica: FY23 net result slightly below preliminary reported with 2024 budget NEUTRAL • KazMun...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 January) Hidroelectrica: 2023 preliminary net profit and 2024E budget close to estimates POSITIVE Transelectrica: 2023 preliminary numbers in line, but zero dividend and a disappointing 2024E budget NEGATIVE CEZ: small boost for nuclear fleet capacity NEUTRAL PGE: to book PLN 8.5bn impairment in 4Q23E NEUTRAL
HEADLINES: • Romanian utilities: the worst is behind us (Electrica stays BUY, Transelectrica and Transgaz stay HOLD) • Bank Millennium: to face PLN 620m of FX mortgage saga provisions hitting its bottom line in 4Q23E NEUTRAL • ADNOC Drilling: JV with Alpha Dhabi makes first investment NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: 4Q23 bookings down 1% qoq NEUTRAL
We expect improving profitability for all three regulated utilities in the coming years. For Electrica, although we see some mild profit pressure in 2024E, from 2025E-onwards, we expect to see the benefit of the investments in new capacities and from lower interest expenses, as the cash flow issues should be solved gradually. For Transgaz, we see upside in 2024E from the increase in the regulated revenues starting from 1 October 2023, but reduced partly by the recent hike in royalties, and we ex...
HEADLINES: • mBank: to book PLN 1.2bn of CHF mortgage costs in 4Q23E; 2023E earnings to break even POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB begins the easing cycle • Turkey macro: CBT hikes by 250bp to 42.5% • Georgia macro: NBG cuts the policy rate by 50bp to 9.5% • DataWalk: key takeaways from an interview with the CEO in ISBtech; sale to UEFA NEUTRAL • Conpet: 2024 transport tariffs raised NEUTRAL • Electrica, Transelectrica: 2024 tariffs approved at the recently-announced levels • Short News...
HEADLINES: • Colt CZ Group SE: to acquire ammunition producer Sellier & Bellot POSITIVE • Elbit Systems: awarded multiple contracts from Israeli MoD POSITIVE • Electrica/Transelectrica: proposed 2024 tariffs in line with the guidance from the regulator • Magyar Telekom: reaches agreement with trade unions NEUTRAL • Motor Oil Hellas: awarded EU grant for carbon capture project • Mytilineos/Titan Cement: coverage UNDER REVIEW • Short News (FP)
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Transelectrica: 3Q23 results in line with our expectations, but weak yoy performance might surprise NEGATIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 3Q23 results - better margins than expected • DIGI Communications: 3Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 18% yoy, in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: 3Q23 results review - EBITDA up 7% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • ONE United Properties: 3Q23 - gross profit margin at 27%, rental income of EUR 5m for the quarter • Bank of Cyprus: 3Q2...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 3Q23 - books another strong quarter • PKO BP: solid 3Q23, announces another attempt to pay 2022 DPS, books 25%+ headline ROE • CEZ: 3Q23 a solid beat; adjusted net profit guidance unchanged, at CZK 33-37bn POSITIVE • InPost: 3Q23 beat on stronger international operations; breakeven in UK; strong start to 4Q POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q23 - another strong summer, guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q23 results review - soft numbers, in line with expectations NEU...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • CE4 macro: weak 2Q GDP, as expected • Benefit Systems: positive surprise in 2Q23 gross margin, strong FY23E guidance POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 2Q23 EBITDA 6% below our forecast on weaker top line NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 2Q23 results review - soft numbers, in line with expectations NEGATIVE • Transgaz: lower-than-expected net loss in 2Q23 NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 2Q23 results - in line NEUTRAL • Halyk Savings Bank: 2Q23 results on track POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 2Q23 preliminary ...
HEADLINES: • AROBS Transilvania Software: rolling up IT development in Romania (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elbit Systems: 2Q23 results - top-down beat, as revenue growth accelerates POSITIVE • Transelectrica: 2Q23 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 2Q23 call takeaways NEUTRAL • Georgia Capital: NAV up 8% qoq, deleveraging continues apace NEUTRAL • Hidroelectrica: jump in volumes to lift profit in 2Q23E (due out today, after the close) • PZU: 2Q23E resu...
HEADLINES: • Polish utilities: polished utilities (Enea, PGE and Tauron stay BUY) • DIGI Communications: 2Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 21% yoy, 9% above our estimate POSITIVE • Nuclearelectrica: 2Q23 net profit 20% above our expectations • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: interim 2Q23 financial results review POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (7-13 August) • Fondul Proprietatea: end-July NAV at RON 2.3784/share, down 1.3% mom • Transgaz: submits application for EUR 554m of g...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Telecom Egypt: 1Q23 results review - EBITDA up 72% yoy, 32% above the consensus POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 1Q23 EBITDA limited 4% above our forecast, greater beat to the consensus NEUTRAL • PCF Group: earnings call takeaways - ongoing work-for-hire negotiations relate to a new project POSITIVE • Hungary macro: European parliament motion to suspend Hungary's presidency in 2024 • Poland macro: Lex Tusk - what it is and why it matters • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 May) ...
HEADLINES: • CE4 macro: 1Q23 GDP confirms the expected relative performances, with upside for Poland • Bank of Cyprus: a solid start in 1Q23, ahead of the FY23E targets POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 1Q23 results - strong start to the year, with high fares and good cost control POSITIVE • Auto Partner: 1Q23 results just in line with the preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Purcari Wineries: takeaways from the 1Q23 earnings call • Transelectrica: takeaways from the 1Q23 earnings call NEGATIVE • Solution...
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