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Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange Belgium (Neutral, TP: €21.6, +12%) H2 25 results: Numbers beat...

OBEL has reported a good set of numbers, with EBITDAaL c+3% ahead of consensus and 2026 EBITDAaL guidance is better than consensus expectations. There is evidence of a Digi impact in MSR and ARPU, but KPIs are OK, suggesting that OBEL is protecting share over ARPU - OBEL has c30% of revs from mobile only, which are vulnerable to Digi in our view.

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Adyen: Preview 2H25. Aperam: In-line 4Q25, upbeat medium-term outlook balances short-term consensus risk. Ayvens: Fast Car (UCS normalisation). Barco: 4Q25 preview, mixed performance. Lotus Bakeries: Another beat on every line. Orange Belgium: 2H25 EBITDAal beat on lower sales, much better 2026 guidance. Philips: CMD & 4Q25 preview, execution is key. RELX: FY25 preview. Universal Music Group: Peer Warner Music 4% revenue and 11% OIBDA beat

 PRESS RELEASE

Solid EBITDAaL growth slightly exceeding the 2025 guidance, supported ...

Solid EBITDAaL growth slightly exceeding the 2025 guidance, supported by sustained commercial performance, synergies and efficiencies Press releaseEmbargo until 6 February 2026 at 7:00 am Regulated information – Inside information Financial information for the second semester and full year 2025 Solid EBITDAaL growth slightly exceeding the 2025 guidance, supported by sustained commercial performance, synergies and efficiencies Mobile postpaid customer base +2.5% yoy / Cable customer base +1.8% yoyH2 Revenues -1.5% yoy / FY 2025 Revenues -1.5% yoyH2 EBITDAaL +3.4% yoy / FY 2025 EBITDAaL +...

 PRESS RELEASE

Solide EBITDAaL-groei die de prognose voor 2025 licht overschrijdt, on...

Solide EBITDAaL-groei die de prognose voor 2025 licht overschrijdt, ondersteund door stabiele commerciële prestaties, synergiën en efficiëntiewinst PersberichtEmbargo tot 6 februari 2026 om 7.00 u. Gereglementeerde informatie – Voorwetenschap Financiële informatie voor het tweede halfjaar en het volledige jaar 2025 Solide EBITDAaL-groei die de prognose voor 2025 licht overschrijdt, ondersteund door stabiele commerciële prestaties, synergiën en efficiëntiewinst Aantal mobiele postpaidklanten +2.5% j-o-j / Aantal kabelklanten +1.8% j-o-jOmzet in H2 -1,5% j-o-j / Omzet 2025 -1,5% j-o-jEBITD...

 PRESS RELEASE

Croissance solide de l'EBITDAaL légèrement supérieure aux prévisions p...

Croissance solide de l'EBITDAaL légèrement supérieure aux prévisions pour 2025, supportée par des performances commerciales soutenues, des synergies et des gains d'efficacité Communiqué de presseEmbargo jusqu'au 6 février 2026 à 7h00 Information réglementée – informations confidentielles Information financière relative au second semestre et à l'exercice 2025 Croissance solide de l'EBITDAaL légèrement supérieure aux prévisions pour 2025, supportée par des performances commerciales soutenues, des synergies et des gains d'efficacité Base clients mobiles postpayés +2.5% / Base clients câble ...

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Vodafone (Buy, £1.30, +20%) Q3 26 – The pricing vs. volume dynamic in...

Market reaction to Vodafone’s Q3 might be dominated by the weaker German broadband net adds figure, but we think the pricing trends look more encouraging and we see these as a reasonable set of results with all guidance reiterated.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK 170, +7%) Post Q4 25 model update

In this note, we update our model and thoughts following the Q4 results (HERE) incorporating conference call feedback, feedback following meeting the CEO/CFO, and compare our new estimates to guidance and consensus. We have trimmed EBITDA slightly for 26/27, but have lifted OpFCF due to the good CapEx discipline.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK 170, +7%) Q4 25: A lot of mixed messaging

Tele2 has reported a confusing set of results with lots of mixed messages. On the one hand, Q4 results were good, but 2026 EBITDAaL guidance is a but disappointing and at odds with current growth rates and looks beatable given likely Q1 growth rates.

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Avantium: (Ti)me delay. Belgian telecoms: Telenet increases price as of March. Fastned: Funding step-up, Fastned secures €200m loan. Lotus Bakeries: Preview FY25. MICC: Preview FY25. Signify: 4Q25 preview. Van Lanschot Kempen: Large AuM win in Fiduciary

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica and Cofinimmo: Belgian Competition Authority approves the deal / AEGON: Sale of UK picking up early momentum / Allfunds Group PLC: Of Bourse they agreed / Ontex: Peer Essity 4Q25 results / Telecoms: Digital Networks Act take-aways / WDP: Catena to raise c.€255m via an ABB with WDP participating pro-rata for c.€26m

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Basic-Fit: Consensus FY25 and FY26 released / Belgian Telecoms: DIGI Belgium introduces 5G FWA at €7 per month and increased data on mobile-only offers / NSI: €50m seven-year unsecured notes issuance with a 4.59% coupon / Sofina: Newsletter #17: NAV per share underperforms

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

European Telecoms for 2026 Industry action required for further outpe...

Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Belgian Telecoms: DIGI Belgium CEO Interview: ‘We are running a marathon, not a sprint' IBA: IBA to install a Rhodotron in East China. Ontex: Another quarter, another profit warning. Theon International: Backlog visibility indeed. Xior: 2026 outlook positive but with no major surprise. Events Calendar

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +26%) Safaricom buyout: More FCF accretive than ...

Vodafone and Vodacom have announced today that they will be taking control of Safaricom. Given the structure of the deal with Kenyan Government involving pre-paying dividends, we think the deal could offer better than expected accretion to Vodafone’s reported FCF for limited capital outflow.

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Adecco: Introduces the agility advantage to grow, adapt and lead in the intelligent era. Belgian telcos: DAZN announces immediatele end for Belgian football broadcasting. CMB.TECH: Good 3Q thanks to its tankers. D'Ieteren: CFO buys more shares, State Farm seeks 6% California Auto Rate cut. Staffing: Belgium October Temp volume stable at -3.4% YoY despite tougher comps.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

TeleColumbus (Overweight) Q3 2025: MSIP implicitly showing their suppo...

TeleColumbus Q3 results show better than expected cash generation with strong underlying EBITDA growth as we lap the MDU migration.

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Arcadis: US peer Aecom sets a new standard for EBITDA margin potential. Belgian telecoms: Orange Belgium price increases from January. CFE: Keeps outlook, materially lower QoQ net debt. Flow Traders: Market volumes improve in October. IMCD: Awaiting a recovery. Kinepolis: Launches retail bond issuance for €100-150m. NEPI Rockcastle: Sound operational performance continues. Universal Music Group: EU to warn on Downtown deal

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