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Hamza Kamal
  • Hamza Kamal

UBL_Buy the rally!

Gaining 26.0% CYTD, United Bank Limited (UBL) still trades at a CY20F P/B of 0.85x - a discount of 21.0% to historical multiples on ROE per PB unit. Our rolled-over Dec’20TP stands at PkR185.1/sh  (Previous: PkR154.6/sh) — offering an upside of 19.8% from last close along with a dividend yield of 8.4% (higher dividends cannot be ruled out given improvement in CAR — 9MCY19 CET-1: 13.25% vs. 11.94% in CY18). Conservative assessment of the bank where we have stressed our forecast with a cost of ...

Hamza Kamal
  • Hamza Kamal

Pakistan Bank: Not much concern on Asset Quality, (AKD Daily, Sep 27, ...

Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) of the banking sector jumped to PkR697.2bn in 1HCY19, +PkR73.1bn (12.2%) relative to CY18 close (Infection ratio: 8.8% in 1HCY19 vs. 8.0% in CY18), whereas excluding the impact of currency devaluation on overseas bad loan book, system NPLs clocked in at PkR678.5bn. Banks under our coverage have remained largely immune to a rise in infections (NPLs: +2.7%QoQ), with infection ratio standing at 7.1% while coverage ratio improved to 88.5% in Jun’19, +2.4ppt QoQ. Recen...

Pakistan Banks_Pension case comes to a conclusion

After gaining 9.5%MoM in Jan’18, the AKD Banking Universe lost ~1% MTD primarily on concerns pertaining to the outcome of pension case. In this regard, it has been reported that the Supreme Court (SC) has ordered banks to upward revise pension payout to a minimum PkR8,000 per month (banks had been suggesting PkR5,250 p.m.) with an annual growth of 5% in payments. With channel checks suggesting applicability on a prospective basis, the impact in such a scenario will be two pronged: 1) a one-off i...

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