Arjo AB: 1 director

A director at Arjo AB bought 100,000 shares at 32.750SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK35.00) - Soft start to 2025

Q1 sales were broadly in line, but adj. EBITDA was c8% below our forecast and c6% below consensus. The main differences came from higher operating expenses than expected as well as a slightly lower gross margin. Product sales were weak, but service/spare parts and rental saw stronger sales than expected, a mix that is generally negative for the margin trend. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to SEK35 (42).

Margin pressure in '25e

Sales ok, but higher opex in Q1

Steady progress in Q1e

Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK42.00) - Stable Q1 expected

We are slightly below consensus for Q1, but believe this is due to different FX assumptions and our inclusion of higher one-off costs. We see stable sales and improving growth in 2025, with a new CEO not expected until H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have trimmed our target price to SEK42 (43) following our forecast adjustments.

Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK43.00) - Uneventful Q4 report

Q4 earnings had been pre-announced when Arjo informed the market of the change of CEO (mid-January); overall, sales and margins were stronger than had been expected pre-announcement. While there is still some investor uncertainty about certain European markets, management believes healthcare budget and demand issues should be resolved in 2025. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our 2025–2027e earnings, and in turn our target price to SEK43 (37).

Find comfort in the undramatic

Solid Q4 in line with pre-announcement

Good margins in prel. Q4 results

Strong prel. Q4 but CEO departure

Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK37.00) - Expecting more of the same

We forecast c3% organic growth YOY in Q4, similar to consensus, and a gross margin in line with the guidance (the report is due at 07:00 CET on 30 January). The UK has now published a 2025 healthcare budget, but Arjo is still being affected by issues with national spending plans in several other markets. We reiterate our HOLD but have trimmed our target price to SEK37 (40).

Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK40.00) - Budget uncertainty set to linger

Q3 sales and earnings disappointed, largely explained by soft capital equipment sales. Delays in the release of national healthcare budgets (including the UK, France and Poland) have hurt organic growth, and there remains significant uncertainty about how long the situation will persist. We believe investors will remain cautious until there are clear signs of improved demand. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK40 (58).

Weak earnings but strong cash flow generation

Soft on sales but good cash flow in Q3

Another solid quarter in Q3e

+3.6% organic sales growth and margin expansion in Q3e. No change in outlook expected. Q3'24 results due 17 October at 07:00am CET.

Positive US hospital capex outlook for H2'24

Arjo (Buy, TP: SEK58.00) - H2 likely skewed towards Q4

While we now see a slightly softer Q3 than previously, we believe Q4 could compensate for this (in line with the historical pattern). In addition, we now expect the strong SEK to have a greater negative impact on earnings. We still see underlying progress as expected and estimate 2024 organic sales growth in the upper part of the guidance of 3–5%. We reiterate our BUY and SEK58 target price.

Arjo (Buy, TP: SEK58.00) - Q2 in line; M&A back on the agenda

Q2 revenues and adj. EBITDA were in line with our estimates and consensus (3.7% organic sales growth YOY was a tad above consensus of c3.6%). Management said it expects H2 to be stronger than H1, particularly Q4 (tying in with the trend of recent years), we believe putting the 3–5% organic growth guidance in reach (and possibly beating it). We reiterate our BUY and SEK58 target price.

Promising earnings outlook at 9% FCF yield

BUY case confirmed after solid Q2 report. Small miss on EBIT driven by other operating items (non-cash). 9% FCF yield on stable cash flow generation is attractive.