Good cost control in Q2

Solid Q2 with promising outlook for H2

Positive sales momentum in Q2e

Arjo AB: 1 director

A director at Arjo AB bought 100,000 shares at 32.750SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK35.00) - Soft start to 2025

Q1 sales were broadly in line, but adj. EBITDA was c8% below our forecast and c6% below consensus. The main differences came from higher operating expenses than expected as well as a slightly lower gross margin. Product sales were weak, but service/spare parts and rental saw stronger sales than expected, a mix that is generally negative for the margin trend. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to SEK35 (42).

Margin pressure in '25e

Sales ok, but higher opex in Q1

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK310.00) - US regulatory risks still in focus

We forecast Q1 EBITDA excluding new partnerships of DKK8.0bn, largely in line with consensus, with offshore wind speeds below normal. We continue to see headwinds in the US, and expect focus to be on the impact from US tariffs and potential construction halts on the US wind farms under construction, as well as other risks in the country. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK310 target price, and believe uncertainties related to the US operations, farm-down execution, and liquidity need to be resolved fo...

Steady progress in Q1e

Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK42.00) - Stable Q1 expected

We are slightly below consensus for Q1, but believe this is due to different FX assumptions and our inclusion of higher one-off costs. We see stable sales and improving growth in 2025, with a new CEO not expected until H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have trimmed our target price to SEK42 (43) following our forecast adjustments.

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK310.00) - Walking a tightrope

Although we welcome the message of disciplined value-focused growth and no equity needed, we do not consider Ørsted to be out of the woods yet, as we still see financial and US-related risks. On our estimates, the lowered capex guidance just about gets the company to the low end of its FFO/NIBD target, leaving limited room for error ahead. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK310 target price, and still struggle to see a meaningful valuation upside despite the stock trading at an 15% discount to our SOT...

Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK43.00) - Uneventful Q4 report

Q4 earnings had been pre-announced when Arjo informed the market of the change of CEO (mid-January); overall, sales and margins were stronger than had been expected pre-announcement. While there is still some investor uncertainty about certain European markets, management believes healthcare budget and demand issues should be resolved in 2025. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our 2025–2027e earnings, and in turn our target price to SEK43 (37).

Find comfort in the undramatic

Solid Q4 in line with pre-announcement

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK310.00) - Still lacking US control

While Ørsted’s DKK12.1bn of incremental impairments exposed some of the underlying uncertainties in the company’s US offshore wind portfolio, we still see further issues related to its US operations (including execution and policy risks), farm-down execution, and liquidity. We see an improved risk/reward profile after yesterday’s 11% sell-off, with the stock trading 10% below our core NAV, but still believe the abovementioned issues need to be resolved for any potential material upside to unfold...

Good margins in prel. Q4 results

Strong prel. Q4 but CEO departure

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK320.00) - Headwinds still present

We forecast Q4 EBITDA excluding new partnerships of DKK8.6bn, largely in line with consensus, with wind speeds slightly below normal. Ørsted’s stock is trading slightly below our NAV. However, we still believe the stock will continue to struggle until the execution risk on asset disposals is lower and the capital markets have more clarity on the magnitude of potential US policy changes. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to DKK320 (390) owing to higher underlying interest r...

Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK37.00) - Expecting more of the same

We forecast c3% organic growth YOY in Q4, similar to consensus, and a gross margin in line with the guidance (the report is due at 07:00 CET on 30 January). The UK has now published a 2025 healthcare budget, but Arjo is still being affected by issues with national spending plans in several other markets. We reiterate our HOLD but have trimmed our target price to SEK37 (40).

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK390.00) - Balance sheet risk still in focus

Ørsted reported underlying results on the downside and further construction issues in the US. The reversal of cancellation fees and deferred capex helps near-term liquidity, but we still believe significant asset sales are needed to fix its balance sheet. We reiterate our DKK390 target price and have upgraded the stock to HOLD (SELL), as it is valued on a par with existing business and visible growth. However, we see uncertainty in the US and a weak balance sheet to continue to weigh on the stoc...