reports
- Wim Hoste
Belysse FY24 adjusted EBITDA +26%, leverage coming down
FY24 revenue declined by 6.8%, reflecting weak market conditions in Europe and to a lesser extent also the US. Further savings and efficiency improvements, combined with positive mix effects, allowed Belysse to increase the adjusted EBITDA margin by almost 4 percentage points to 15.1% with FY24 adjusted EBITDA up by 26%. The better results and limited capex requirements have allowed to bring net debt/adjusted EBITDA (excl IFRS 16 leases) down to 3.1x. We still consider valuation to be compelling...
- Wim Hoste
Belysse Weak top line in 3Q but adjusted EBITDA is holding up
3Q revenue declined by 7.6%, mainly due to continued weak demand in Europe. Adjusted EBITDA was stable on an organic base and roughly in line with our forecasts, reflecting higher unitary margins. We have kept our FY adjusted EBITDA forecast unchanged whilst slightly lowering our FY25-26 forecasts. We continue to believe Belysse is doing what is necessary to structurally improve profitability whilst visibility on a market recovery is low. Valuation is attractive and prompts us to reiterate our A...
- ING Helpdesk
- Wim Hoste
Belysse 1H24 adjusted EBITDA +75%, allowing leverage to drop to 3.2x
1H revenue declined by 8.3%, reflecting lower demand in both Europe and the US. Despite the weak demand, 1H Adjusted EBITDA improved by 75% on the back of lower COGS and reduced fixed costs. Importantly, the higher EBITDA is resulting in a significant decline in net leverage (to 3.2x). Valuation is attractive and prompts us to reiterate our Accumulate rating and € 1.6 target price.
- ING Helpdesk
- Wim Hoste
Belysse 1Q24 revenue -8.3%, adjusted EBITDA further recovers
1Q revenue declined by 8.3%, reflecting lower demand in both Europe and the US. Adjusted EBITDA improved on the back of lower COGS and reduced fixed costs, allowing leverage to drop to below 4x. Despite the difficult market conditions, we believe Belysse has overcome the raw materials volatility of the past two years. Valuation is attractive and prompts us to reiterate our Accumulate rating and € 1.6 target price.
- ING Helpdesk
- Wim Hoste
Belysse 4Q23 adj. EBITDA margin recovers on raw materials & cost savin...
4Q adjusted EBITDA jumped by 36% with the adjusted EBITDA margin up by c 5 percentage points, with weak volumes being offset by lower raw materials costs and cost savings. Whilst leverage is still very high, Belysse has turned the corner on profit delivery. Valuation is attractive and prompts us to reiterate our Accumulate rating, albeit with a lowered target price of € 1.6 (down from € 2.0).
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AEGON: Another beat, another $. Bekaert: FY23 EBITu and FCF beat, pausing of buyback might disappoint given strong BS. Belysse: Europe starting its revival. bpost: 4Q23 3% beat vs INGF (11% vs cons) driven by E-logistics Eurasia; FY24 outlook at 4-7% vs INGF ex Press impact. Corbion: Jam tomorrow. Heijmans: 2024 EBITDA guidance 30% above estimate. IMCD: As expected 4Q23. TKH Group: Preview; Eyes on 2024 outlook statements. Results Calendar
- Wim Hoste
Belysse Completes refinancing of senior secured notes
Belysse announced the completion of the earlier announced refinancing program, which involves a new € 120m credit facility and a new € 20m revolving credit facility. We remind that Belysse starts to see lower raw materials costs filtering through in its P&L, with 3Q adjusted EBITDA up 51% sequentially. We acknowledge that the high leverage and weak macro economic conditions have dented investor perception on Belysse, but the improving earnings momentum and attractive forward valuation metrics pr...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ackermans & van Haaren: another (small) deal for January. AEGON: New Year's event with CFO, new head of IR & team. Air France-KLM: Not a very strong end to FY23. Belysse: Finalizes its debt refinancing with a €20m RCF. Just Eat Takeaway.com: Preview 4Q23. Kinepolis: Peer Cineplex December box office revenue at 69% of 2019 level
- Wim Hoste
Belysse Signing new € 20m super-senior revolving credit facility
Belysse announced to have signed an agreement for a new € 20m revolving credit facility, with a term of 3.5 years. The announcement marks further progress on the ongoing refinancing and we remind Belysse already announced in December a new € 120m credit facility which will be used to repay outstanding senior secured notes. We remind that Belysse starts to see lower raw materials costs filtering through in its P&L, with 3Q adjusted EBITDA up 51% sequentially. We acknowledge that the high leverage...
- Wim Hoste
Belysse 3Q adj.EBITDA starts to show the benefit of declining raw mate...
Despite significant top line pressure in 3Q23, Belysse delivered a slight growth in adjusted EBITDA y/y with a 51% growth sequentially. Lower raw materials costs are now filtering through with a more pronounced effect expected for 4Q23. We acknowledge that the high leverage and weak macro economic conditions have dented investor perception on Belysse, but the improving earnings momentum and attractive forward valuation metrics prompt us to reiterate our Accumulate rating and € 2 target price.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Arcadis: Good results, Places reasonably solid. Belysse: A decent quarter, outlook revised down slightly. BESI: 2H23 in line, strong 2024 prospects. CM.com: 3Q23 trading update, continued gross profit growth. Corbion: Death by a thousand cuts. Flow Traders: Strong revenue capture overpowers lower volumes. Fugro: Strong 3Q and resumption of dividend. Kinepolis: Very strong 3Q23, net debt down €28m, EBITDAL YTD in excess of 2019. Unilever: New management, new strategy. Xior Stude...
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Maxime Stranart
Belysse/European profit recovery expected in 2H23/BUY
We reiterate our BUY on Belysse, as we continue to believe a refinancing of its debt will provide the share with a key catalyst. Despite major headwinds in 1H23, we are comforted by Belysse's guidance of an increase in Adj. EBITDA in FY23F, whilst our estimates point towards a 14.1% CAGR over 2022-24F on a recovery of the European division and continued growth in the US, with Belysse operating in a niche and premium market. Despite this, we note Belysse is trading at a discount of 15/35% on EV/E...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Belysse: A weak 2Q23 but comforting FY guidance. BE Semiconductor Industries: 2Q23 preview. Orange Belgium: 1H23 and new guidance a bit on the low side, commercial momentum supportive. Sligro Food: 1H23 profitability materially below consensus. Telenet: Liberty Global increasing its stake to 93.23%. Wereldhave: Resilient valuations for the Belgian entity. Results Calendar
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
- Benjamin Wolff
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
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