reports
- Guan An Tan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Transportation & Logistics: Tariff war posing significant uncert...
The tariff war poses significant uncertainties to global trade. Shipping and ports (MARKET WEIGHT) are impacted due to their high global trade exposure, though their subdued valuation implies limited downside risks. Cargo operations of airlines (UNDERWEIGHT) are hit by both higher tariffs and the US’ de minimis tax change, but weaker fuel prices would support airlines’ near-term earnings. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on domestic consumption-oriented logistics names, with JDL a top pick.
00293 CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS LIMITED
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK): 2024: Results in line; more volatil...
CSH’s reported 2024 net profit of Rmb49.2b (+106% yoy) was in line with its previous guidance. A final dividend of Rmb1.03 was declared, leading to a full-year yield of 13.2%. For 2025, management sees a more complex and volatile industry environment amid geopolitical tensions. We expect CSH’s earnings to moderate 36% yoy in 2025. Share price downside should be limited by its large net cash pile, still-decent 2025 yield (8.3%) and proactive share buybacks. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$11.62.
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, March 25, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet Seeing great opportunities in AI development, major China cloud hyperscalers are significantly lifting their AI investment in 2025. With the launch of Manus, we are more optimistic about the accelerating monetisation capabilities of AI agents and applications through API integration and tool utilisation, which benefit cloud hyperscalers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Results CMOC (3993 HK/BUY/HK$6.72/Target: HK$8.70) CMOC reported 2024 earnings of Rmb13,532.0m (+64.0...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Gigi Cheuk
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Lester Siew
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, March 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Monetisation potential and trends of AI agent from the launch of Manus AI. Results CMOC (3993 HK/BUY/HK$6.72/Target: HK$8.70) 2024: Above expectations; copper output up 55% yoy to 650,161 tonnes. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$12.58/Target: HK$11.62) 2024: Results in line; more volatile business environment in 2025 but limited valuation ...
2488 ALLIANCE BANK MALAYSIA BHD.
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
3993 CHINA MOLYBDENUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
HLFG HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP
IOI IOI CORP BHD
AMM AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ABANK AFFIN BANK BHD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
1888 KINGBOARD LAMINATES HOLDINGS LTD
09888 BAIDU INC
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BIMB BANK ISLAM MALAYSIA BHD
EPIC 1CM INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
MAYBANK MALAYAN BANKING BHD
HUIZ HUIZE HOLDING LIMITED
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping And Ports: Expect 2025 to be a volatile year, with seve...
The latest economic indicators indicate a tepid global trade outlook in the near term. We expect 2025 to be a volatile year for the shipping and ports sector, subject to a number of geopolitical and industry events. While many of these events point to downside risks, a potential port strike in the US, the most imminent event to watch out for, poses upside risks for the container shipping segment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. BUY OOIL, CSP and CMP. Maintain HOLD on CSH.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK): 3Q24: Results slightly above expect...
CSH’s 9M24 net profit of Rmb38.1b (+72.7% yoy) was in line with its preliminary guidance and slightly ahead of our projections, at 85.2% of our full-year forecast. Management sees a benign trade condition in 4Q24 and expects the container shipping sector outlook to remain bolstered by the ongoing Red Sea disruption, at least through 1H25. Maintain HOLD on CSH for its lucrative dividend yield of over 13% in the next 12 months. Target price: HK$11.40.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Colin Lee
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Friday, November 1, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI October’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% (+0.3ppt mom), with improvements across all composite indices. However, new export orders and inventory of finished goods continued to contract, with increases in purchase prices. The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2% (+0.2ppt mom), showing broad-based improvements across all indices but a slight dip in construction PMI. Activity for small-sized firms contracted, likely impacted by fewer new manufacturing export orders....
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
603882 GUANGZHOU KINGMED DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
- Colin Lee
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Singapore Research Team
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Thailand Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, November 01, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Broad-based improvement in PMI. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.11/Target: HK$14.60): 3Q24: Premiumisation slows down in China; in-home channel to be a focus. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$33.50/Target: HK$40.90): 3Q24: Solid set of results; 4Q24/2025 growth may accelerate further. Maintain BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.91/Target: HK$6.50): 3Q24: In line; 3Q24 wind power generation up 6.2% yoy. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/HOLD/HK$11.54/Tar...
ISAT INDOSAT
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
ROTH BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO BHD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
CPN-R CENTRAL PATTANA PCL NVDR
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Weakening global trade outlook; The US east ...
The latest economic indicators pointed to a weakening global trade outlook, with both China and global manufacturing PMIs standing at sub-50 levels, and their new export order sub-indices sinking deeper in the contractionary territory. Ocean freight rate futures prices have rebounded lately amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the US East Coast port strike, though halted for now, remains a key uncertainty. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OOIL, CSP and CMP. CSH is downgraded to HOLD.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK): 1H24: Results broadly in line; expe...
CSH’s 1H24 net profit of Rmb16.9b (+1.9% yoy, +131.1% hoh) is deemed broadly in line with our expectations, forming 32.0% of our full-year forecast, as we expect a significantly higher 2H24 performance underpinned by higher average ocean freight rates hoh and yoy. Ocean freight rates are going downhill as the market is moving out of the traditional peak season but are likely to stay above normal levels given the ongoing Red Sea disruption. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$11.08.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Freight rates peaked but forward decline is ...
The latest economic indicators for global trade outlook weakened slightly, with both China and global manufacturing PMIs dipping mom and their new export order subindices below 50. Ocean freight rates have peaked, with freight rate futures prices having retreated in the past month amid the Gaza truce talks. Nevertheless, risk-reward for shipping companies is more favourable after the recent share price drops. Maintain MARTKET WEIGHT. OOIL and CSH (upgraded to BUY) offer FY24 yields of about 17%.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping And Ports: Further strengthened freight rates raising c...
The latest economic indicators for global trade were still mixed but with some positive tilt. Driven by a tight capacity supply-demand balance, prices of Jun/Aug/Oct 24 futures contracts for Shanghai-Europe freight rose 24%/30%/24% from our last update, pointing to even stronger near-term earnings for container shipping. We deem the risk-reward of container shipping stocks largely balanced but think near-term market sentiments may stay strong. Upgrade OOIL to HOLD on raised earnings and dividend...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Greater China Research Team
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Malaysia Research Team
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, June 05, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Call Adding KE Holdings and Wharf REIC to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. Sector Shipping and Ports – China Further strengthened freight rates raising container shipping earnings outlook. Upgrade OOIL to HOLD; Maintain BUY on CSP and CMP, and HOLD on CSH. Update KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/BUY/HK$45.00/Target: HK$55.00) ...
02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
7777 3-D MATRIX
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
CENTEL CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
VALUE VALUE8 N.V.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
MISC MISC BHD
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
CPALL TB CP ALL
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
OSP OSOTSPA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
CRC CENTRAL RETAIL CORP
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
NATGATE NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Prefer ports over container shipping for bet...
The latest economic indicators for China’s exports were still mixed, with China and global manufacturing PMIs staying above 50, but a weakened US consumer sentiment index. We think China’s potential removal of dividend tax on Hong Kong stocks bought via the Stock Connect will re-rate port stocks, but the risk-reward for shipping stocks is becoming less attractive after the recent strong share price performance. Downgrade CSH to HOLD and OOIL to SELL, and suggest switching to port plays CSP and C...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK): 1Q24: Results in line; benign suppl...
CSH’s 1Q24 net profit of Rmb6.8b (-5.2% yoy, +277.5% qoq) is broadly in line with our expectations, forming 36.6% of our full-year forecast. Management sees healthy contract signing with clients, and expects benign capacity supply-demand dynamics in the near term as a result of the on-going Red Sea attacks. We raise our 2024-26 earnings estimates by 13-15%. Maintain BUY with a slightly higher target price of HK$10.90.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Thursday, May 2, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected at 50.4% (-0.4ppt) and stayed in the expansionary zone for the second month. It was mainly supported by production and new orders as employment remained a drag, dropping 0.1ppt to 48.0%. Non-manufacturing hit a three-month low of 51.2%, dragged by moderation in new orders and business expectations. We expect policy support to continue and the July Politburo may see new measures being rolled out. Sector Aviation T...
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
002352 S.F. HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
002460 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
601012 LONGI GREEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
600019 BAOSHAN IRON & STEEL CO. LTD. CLASS A
YUMC YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC.
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
603259 WUXI APPTEC CO. LTD. CLASS A
WUXI APPTEC CO. LTD. CLASS H
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK): 2023: Results in line; expect an up...
CSH’s 2023 net profit of Rmb23.9b (-78.2% yoy) was in line with its previous guidance. It declared a final dividend of Rmb0.23 based on a 50% payout ratio, topping the guided range of 30-50%. We expect CSH to achieve an upbeat performance in 1H24, backed by the elevated average ocean freight rates ytd as a result of the Red Sea attacks. CSH currently trades at 0.63x 2024F P/B (2.3SD below sector historical mean) and offers a 7.4% yield for 2024 by our estimate. Maintain BUY. Target: HK$10.60.
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kate Luang
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, April 3, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly Eyeing re-rating for refrigerant suppliers as AC dealers front-load for peak sales in 2Q24. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.85/Target: HK$6.00) 2023: Results in line; expect revenue headwinds to persist in 2024. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$8.44/Target: HK$10.60) 2023: Results in line; expect an upbeat 1H24 performance. Maintain BUY. Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH/BUY/Rmb1,713.99/Target: Rmb2,488.00) 2023: Earnings up ...
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kate Luang
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kong Ho Meng
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Malaysia Research Team
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Singapore Research Team
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, April 03, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly Eyeing re-rating for refrigerant suppliers as AC dealers front-load for peak sales in 2Q24. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.85/Target: HK$6.00) 2023: Results in line; expect revenue headwinds to persist in 2024. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$8.44/Target: HK$10.60) 2023: Results in line; expect an upbeat 1H24 performance. Maintain BUY. Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH/BUY/Rmb1,713.99/Target: Rmb2,488.00) 2023: Earnings up ...
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Shipping and Ports: Gradually improving global trade outlook. Ma...
Economic indicators for China’s exports were still a mixed bag in Feb 24, but the external environment is gradually improving, in line with our forecast of a moderate rise in global trade by mid-24. Amid the Red Sea attacks, ocean freight rates have been gradually normalising since early-Feb 24 as shipping companies adapt to the situation. We downgrade OOIL to SELL and recommend switching to CSH for shipping exposure. Top picks: CSP for ports and CSH for container shipping. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
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