Energy Morning - 27 June 2025

Ambea AB: 1 director

A director at Ambea AB sold 100,000 shares at 112.403SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 78/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Slower 2025, but LT case intact

Near-term outlook soft, but LT seems intact

Finland lags behind

Humana (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Growth agenda back in focus

The Q1 results were mixed, but with the financials now in good order, we see more of a growth focus ahead. We find management’s priorities logical, with our underlying forecast largely unchanged, but our 2025–2027e EPS cut by 6–2% on FX and non-cash items. We reiterate our BUY, but have trimmed our target price to SEK52 (53), focusing on Humana’s market opportunity, operating profile, financial outlook and valuation.

Slight miss on adj. EBIT

Positive Easter effect

Hexagon Composites (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Cautious on near-term outlook

We are significantly below consensus on Q1e EBITDA, owing to the challenging US truck market, with the uncertainty in demand, costs, and regulations resulting in lower demand for new trucks and technology shifts taking longer. With most of its business in the US, we consider Hexagon Composites vulnerable. As a result, we have lowered our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 9–15%. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK38 (50) on the weaker near-term outlook.

Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Acquiring Validia Oy

Ambea’s acquisition of Validia Oy, entering the Finnish social care market, makes good sense to us. A post-integration valuation of c7.5x EV/EBITA and tacit ROIC of c13% suggest a solid deal, and consolidating Validia Oy implies 4–5% increases to our 2025–2027e adj. EPS. We see a strong case, with robust demand, solid FCF and financials giving room for share buybacks/dividends and further possible acquisitions. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK130 (123).

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Energy Morning - 14 February 2025

Hexagon Composites (Buy, TP: NOK50.00) - In a transition year

2025 looks set to be a transition year, with a slower roll-out of natural gas trucks and low Mobile Pipeline activity hampering H1. Thus, we have cut our 2025e EBITDA by 24%, to the top of the guidance of NOK640m–740m that we consider to be conservative. Seeing the long-term investment case as still intact and hearing welcomed commentary on no further financial support to Hexagon Purus, we consider yesterday’s sell-off to be an overreaction. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to...

Strong finish, but soft 2025 outlook

Energy Morning - 13 February 2025

Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK123.00) - In capital-allocation mode

Q4 showed still-solid revenue, earnings and FCF generation, meeting its medium-term >9.5% EBITA margin target (Q4 LTM 9.7%) already 2024. We see a strong case, given: 1) the robust demand outlook combined with an asset-light, cash-generating model; 2) renewed execution on bolt-on acquisitions and dividends/share buybacks; and 3) an attractive valuation at 2025–2027e FCF yields of 9–10%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK123 (120).