Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Ambea AB: 7 directors

Seven Directors at Ambea AB sold/sold after exercising options 131,142 shares at between 97.000SEK and 99.500SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the com...

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Financial target looks more achievable now

Please don't forget to provide KPIs

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK175.00) - Another step in the right direction

Securitas’s Q3 was strong, with Europe and IberoAmerica improving and the US remaining solid. FCF generation was much-improved, accelerating the balance sheet de-gearing. We have tweaked our forecasts post-Q3. We still see a solid transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 (LTM 6.8%) continues. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK175 (160).

Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK120.00) - Margin approaching 9.5% already

Q3 showed continued solid revenue, earnings and FCF generation, with Ambea close to reaching its medium-term >9.5% EBITA margin target (Q3 LTM 9.4%). We see a strong case, given: 1) the robust demand outlook combined with an asset-light, cash-generating model; 2) renewed execution on bolt-on acquisitions and dividends/share buybacks; and 3) an attractive valuation at 2024–2026e FCF yields of 9–11%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK120 (110).

Europe drives Q3 beat

More price increases, earlier than expected

Catena AB: 1 director

A director at Catena AB maiden bought 1,000 shares at 493.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions

This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.

Difficult to ignore

Catena (Hold, TP: SEK550.00) - Sharp drop in project capex in 2025e

The Q3 results were solid, and we have raised our 2025–2026e FFOps by 12–14% following the recent DSV acquisition and equity raise. However, we reiterate our HOLD and have reduced our target price to SEK550 (575) due to: 1) the stretched valuation versus European logistics peers; 2) our belief that a more concentrated tenant list requires a higher risk premium and a lower LTV than more diversified companies; and 3) our expectation of project capex being down up to c70% YOY in 2025, resulting in ...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Q3 and rental KPIs in focus

This week, reporting season was in full swing, with nine covered companies reporting Q3 results. Overall, the results were mixed, while net lettings and vacancy rates were main points of interest given the current weak rental markets. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.

I.A.R. Systems Group: 3 directors

A director at I.A.R. Systems Group bought 25,000 shares at 118.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...

Estimates coming down 0-2% on topline