HEADLINES: * Rosneft: major steps towards boosting shareholder value (upgraded to BUY) * EME Macro/Strategy: good news! (Alas, the best is still behind us) * Surgutneftegas: 1Q18 RAS results - broadly in line, accrued dividend on preferred shares at RUB 0.6 * Emlak Konut: strong 1Q18 P&L, but tenders and unit sales remain crucial POSITIVE * Podravka: 1Q18 results strong compared to 1Q17 and 4Q17 NEUTRAL * NIS: 1Q18 results significantly below expectations NEGATIVE * Nostr...
On 28 April, Surgutneftegas (HOLD, USD 6.0/GDR and RUB 32/preferred share PTs) reported RUB 62.1bn in net income for 1Q18 under Russian accounting standards (RAS), compared to a net loss of RUB 90.7bn over the same period last year. The accrued dividend on the preferred shares amounts to RUB 0.6 (a 7.4% annualised dividend yield), although Surgutneftegas’ quarterly earnings tend to be highly volatile as the company books gains and losses from the revaluation of its cash pile, depending on the ...
We believe that investors should approach the Russian market with much more caution and be prepared for a lot of volatility in the next few days and weeks. We do not believe that all stocks have fully priced in the negative possibilities, but consider the overall market as becoming more attractively priced. We suggest that investors have a list of “top buys†at hand and be ready to step in on significant weakness over the next few weeks. Such a list could include some Russian consumer and me...
EME Equity Market – March 2018 Market performance – only Romania and Prague in positive territory. The MSCI EME lost 5.8% mom in March, continuing the negative trend after February’s 1.1% contraction. The Romanian BET index was the best performer in March, +3.1%, while Prague’s PX index remained broadly flat, recording a small gain of 0.3%. On the negative side, the Turkish ISE30 performed poorly, losing 9.1%, followed by the Warsaw WIG20, -7.3%. The Greek ASE index fell by 6.6% and Mosc...
In this flash note, we share feedback post our 70-plus meetings with European, US and Middle Eastern investors. We were surprised to learn that practically all investors we met had Russia as either overweight or at least neutral. While we still maintain our positive view on Russia, given the bullish positioning, we believe that it make take longer for Russian stocks to re-rate from their current 6.7x P/E to a more reasonable 9-10x.
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