EPS cut (2024: from € -0.59 to -0.68, 2025: from € -0.09 to -0.09) (Dr...

EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2025 : € (0.09) vs (0.09) ns 2026 : € 0.05 vs 0.06 -16.7% Our EPS for 2024 was impacted by the lower number of shares than expected (20.1m vs 20.5m) as the effective timing of the last capital raising announced in December 2024, came later than expected. Our EPS for 2026 was only marginally changed following the release of the annual report with full figures, which marginally impacted our estimates.

DCF cut by -12.2% (Drone Volt)

DCF CHANGE CHANGE IN DCF € 1.16 vs 1.32 -12.2% We have updated our DCF to include the faster-than-previously-expected decline in the distribution segment. We now forecast a 85% decline to €4.2m over 2025 compared to our previous forecast of a 70% decline to €8.5m. This has affected our EBITDA sequence for 2025 and beyond (c.€100-500k) as we have not changed our growth assumptions going forward, and thus our FCF for these years.

Q1 '25: A confirmed change in business model

Q1 '25: A confirmed change in business model EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt unveiled promising results with a strong gross margin improvement that was not yet enough to compensate for the massive decline in revenue from the distribution segment. The group reiterated its guidance for 2025, which is reachable in our view, thanks to the strong order intake related to defence notably. Despite the recent impressive share price performance related to the broader defence names trend as well as an...

INVEST SECURITIES - DRONE VOLT : Confirmation du changement de cap - A...

INVEST SECURITIES - DRONE VOLT : En mesure de se concentrer sur l'opér...

Target cut by -13.7% (Drone Volt)

TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.59) vs (0.59) 2025 : € (0.09) vs (0.12) ns Our 2025 EPS forecast has benefited from the higher average number of shares in 2025 (+9m to 39m) resulting from the €5m capital raising and the subsequent expected exercise of the share purchase warrants attached to these new shares, thus reducing the loss per share. CHANGE IN NAV € 1.07 vs 1.30 -17.1% Our NAV has been impacted by the c.18m increase in the number of shares to c.53m expected at year-end 2025...

Target upgrade by 19.6% (Drone Volt)

TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.59) vs (0.30) ns 2025 : € (0.12) vs (0.11) ns Our EPS for 2024 have been affected primarily by the impairment of the Aquline drones stake (€3.4m impact) that we had not anticipated, a higher-than-expected tax level (c.€1.6m) and the higher D&A (€0.8m). CHANGE IN NAV € 1.30 vs 0.89 +45.3% We have updated our NAV to take into account the strong rerating of Defence activities by the market, thus increasing the multiple for the Drone Volt Factory from 2x ...

A better-looking FY24 release than it seems

A better-looking FY24 release than it seems EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES This release shows that the basis for EBITDA profitability has been laid and that the deterioration at the EBIT level was mostly related to non-recurring, non-operating, and non-cash impacts. The outlook for 2025 is unchanged, underpinned by the new orders from the US and more ambitious cost-cutting plans. Further orders for defence purposes, as well as for the Kobra drone, could help boost the ongoing re-rating of the stock, ...

Integrating the FY24 trading update (Drone Volt)

Integrating the FY24 trading update TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.30) vs (0.26) ns 2025 : € (0.11) vs (0.10) ns We have integrated the sales and gross margin figures for the FY24 that came in slightly under our expectations due to a sudden slump in sales from the distribution side, resulting in a €6.9m shortfall in sales to €28.3m in distribution, partially mitigated by higher sales on the Drone Volt Factory, Academy and services side (c.€200k to €4.4m). Although the global gross m...

INVEST SECURITIES - DRONE VOLT : 6 MOIS DE VISIBILITÉ SUPPLÉMENTAIRES ...

FY 24: A rapid strategic change undertaken

FY 24: A rapid strategic change undertaken EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt unveiled a mixed FY24 trading update with a new sales record, despite the brake put on distribution sales in Q4, and announced one (potentially two) new dilutive financing operations to fund its production capacity growth. 2025 should be the year of EBITDA profitability, an enticing prospect for shareholders given that it should depend on a more resilient business model. FACT Sales for FY24 grew by 36% from €24.0m ...

Decent Q3 results

Decent Q3 results EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt released a rather good Q3 trading update, more than doubling its top line and posting a significant improvement in gross margins, despite being affected by a more unfavourable product mix. The outlook remains unchanged for 2024 and 2025, despite the desire to reduce the distribution share in the revenue mix going forward, marking confidence in the new activities. We thus reiterate our positive stance on the stock. FACT Sales grew by 139% c...

INVEST SECURITIES - DRONE VOLT : Confirmation d'une dynamique commerci...

Drone Volt unveiled promising H1 24 results

Drone Volt unveiled promising H1 24 results EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt published its complete H1 24 results yesterday, which were revised downwards on the top line and gross margin levels. Nonetheless, the EBITDA margin trend seems to be reversing towards positive territory, and the group now openly aims to reach it in 2025. This is a strong commitment that could change the equity story if the management manages to deliver. FACT Sales were slightly revised downwards to €23.4m (€23.6...

INVEST SECURITIES - DRONE VOLT : Tenir pour pouvoir délivrer l'objecti...

Lower profitability incorporated (Drone Volt)

Lower profitability incorporated TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE € 0.01 vs 0.02 -36.0% Our target price has been reduced due to the peer-based metrics having been impacted by a lower EBITDA forecast for 2024 and the lack of net profits until 2026 vs 2025 previously. Moreover, this lower EBITDA generation has reduced our DCF-derived valuation, further reducing the target price. Finally, we incorporate the new capital increase with an oversubscription thesis resulting in 19% dilution. CH...

H1 24: Encouraging trajectory

H1 24: Encouraging trajectory EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt has announced its H1 24 sales and gross margin figures, which have come in higher than expected, especially on the top line, thanks to a €12m distribution contract. However, the company has announced a new capital increase to contend with this huge growth phase. We are confident that Drone Volt will achieve its guidance for 2024 and reiterate our Buy recommendation. FACT Sales grew by 49% to €23.6m thanks to a 45% increase in D...

INVEST SECURITIES - DRONE VOLT : Des annonces qui vont dans le bon sen...

Eurosatory takeways

Eurosatory takeways LATEST ANALYSIS Drone Volt announced that the number of prospects reached around 100 at Eurosatory, a major European Defense exhibition, which is “significantly more” than at previous similar events. 90% of them come from international customers, probably mostly European, which is good news for the geographical expansion of the company and might suggest that the European-built Drone Volt Kobra is finding its market. On top of this, Marc Courcelle met the current Armies Min...

Drone Volt on the move

Drone Volt on the move EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt unveiled outstanding results, widely beating its Q1 23 guidance provided two months ago and maintaining its objective of increasing its gross margin and the recurrence. FACT • Sales increased by almost 5x to €8.9m (Q1 23: €1.6m) thanks to the completion of the big distribution contract notably (which was not initiated in the Q1 23) and new orders, smashing the company’s goal to at least double the sales compared to last year. • The g...