reports
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Market Strategy: 2026 Year Ahead: Global easing continue...
Highlights We expect global liquidity cycle to remain strong for at least 1H26, following the Fed’s return to policy easing in Sep 25, benefitting emerging market assets and commodities. Chinese equities are likely to rally further, and our index target for MSCI China index target is at 104 pts based on 16.3x 12-month forward PE and 6% EPS growth assumption. We prefer exposure to growth industries like AI/semiconductors, automation/robotics, ADAS and innovative drugs and liquidity proxies ...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
02208 XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS H
06160 BEIGENE LTD.
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
3750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY (3750 HK)
002371 CH NAURA TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): 9M25 -- In line; Gold Strength And ZGI Listing...
Zijin Mining’s 9M25 results are in line, with net profit up 56% yoy to Rmb37,863.6m, driven by higher realised ASPs and strong gold production growth. Mining-entity gross margin expanded to 60.6% (+2.9ppt) on gold strength, while cost upticks from Akyem are expected to normalise. The ZGI listing enhanced liquidity and expanded M&A headroom. The constructive demand outlook for copper and persistent global supply disruptions support a further valuation re-rating. We maintain BUY with a higher targ...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Ken Lee
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, October 21, 2025
Top Stories Economics | Economic Activity China’s 3Q25 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% yoy, bringing 9M25 growth to 5.1%. 9M25 FAI fell 0.5% yoy, dragged by property FAI (-13.9% ytd yoy). September's industrial production rose 6.5% yoy, but retail sales growth eased to 3.0% yoy. With the stronger-than-expected 9M25 growth, we raise the full-year real GDP growth forecast to 5.0% yoy. That said, further policy support is still needed and we expect proposals for the 15th Five-year Plan to provide furthe...
- Audrey Celia
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Ken Lee
- Philip Wong
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, October 21, 2025
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity China’s 3Q25 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% yoy, 9M25 growth to 5.1%. Ytd FAI fell 0.5% yoy, dragged by property FAI (-13.9% ytd yoy). September's industrial production rose 6.5% yoy, but retail sales growth eased to 3.0% yoy. With the stronger-than-expected 9M25 growth, we raise the full-year real GDP growth forecast to 5.0% yoy. That said, further policy support is still needed and we expect proposals for the 15th Five-year Plan to provide further clu...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
5225 IHH HEALTHCARE BHD.
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Zijin Mining (2899 HK):1H25: In line; gold shines, copper holds; spin-...
Zijin reported 1H25 earnings of Rmb23,291.8m (+54.4% yoy), in line with expectations. Mining entities’ gross margins expanded to 60.2% (+2.9ppt yoy) on higher gold prices and volumes. Gold/copper contributed 38.6%/38.5% of gross profit, a more balanced mix that enhances earnings resilience. 1H25 gold/copper output rose to 41.2/566,853 tonnes (+16.3%/+9.3% yoy); management noted that the Kamoa flooding impact is insignificant at the group level. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$29.70.
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kate Luang
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Thursday, August 28, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$24.46/Target: HK$28.90) Anhui Conch Cement reported 1H25 earnings of Rmb4,367.9m (+31.3% yoy), representing 42.5% of our full-year estimates, slightly above expectations. Gross margin for self-produced products rose to 28.9% (+5.8ppt yoy). Cement ASP edged up 1.5% yoy, while unit production cost fell 7.1% yoy, mainly on a 13.8% drop in fuel and power costs. Cement and clinker sales volume was broadly stable at 126mt (-0.4% yoy), outperfo...
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
XGH ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
0914 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
2877 CHINA SHINEWAY PHARMACEUTICA
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
01209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES (RED CHIP)
9660 HK HORIZON ROBOTICS INC (9660 HK)
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Gigi Cheuk
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, August 28, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$101.60/Target: HK$114.20) 1H25: Results in line; lowers Anta brand target slightly, but maintains group-level target. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$30.40/Target: HK$34.10) 1H25: Results in line; positive 2H25 sales outlook & regular REIT expansion vision. Horizon Robotics (9660 HK/BUY/HK$7.94/Target: HK$8.88) 1H25: Hardware shipments more than double; eyeing mass pro...
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
EGCO ELECTRICITY GENERATING PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PLANB PLAN B MEDIA
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
IJM IJM CORP BHD
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
SWB SUNWAY BHD
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
PGEO PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
STM SEATRIUM LTD
9660 HK HORIZON ROBOTICS INC (9660 HK)
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China 2H25 Market Strategy: A Big Beautiful Deal?
Trade deal in focus. Notwithstanding the 90-day truce on tariff escalation, it is still a 50/50 if there will be a “Big Beautiful Deal” between the US and China. The US is steadfast in wanting to cap China’s growth and restricting her access to the latest technology, while China is making a firm stand on its economic rights. We expect that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unavoidable, likely closer to the 60% mark, if Trump were to be seen making a credible move to onshore production in ...
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
02161 JBM (HEALTHCARE) LTD
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
3750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY (3750 HK)
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Metals & Mining: Copper -- Trade uncertainties cloud 2H25; decar...
Copper prices rebounded on renewed US-China trade optimism, while demand remains under pressure from macro headwinds. Looser supply conditions have weighed on the Yangshan premium and spurred export activity. The near-term outlook remains neutral, with trade negotiations a key swing factor. A more constructive view emerges for 1H26, underpinned by green energy momentum and a global policy-driven recovery. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): 1Q25: In line; poised to capitalise on gold pr...
Zijin reported 1Q25 earnings of Rmb10,166.8m (+62.4% yoy), in line with expectations. Mining entities’ gross margin expanded to 59.9% (+5.4ppt yoy), supported by a gold price rally. The contribution from gold/copper to gross profit became more balanced at 36%/42%, enhancing earnings resilience amid elevated market uncertainties. 1Q25 gold output rose to a record 19.1 tonnes (+13.4% yoy), on track to achieve its 2025 growth target of 17%. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$24.00.
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Kate Luang
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, April 15, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Trade Mar 25 exports growth rebounded to 12.4% yoy, a big improvement from Feb 25’s -3.0% yoy (which was affected by the holidays), but still a moderation from 4Q24's stronger performance. On the other hand, imports fell 4.3% yoy, dragged by a strong decline in coal imports. Trade surplus widened to US$102.6b, but will narrow in the months ahead if the higher US tariffs remain. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property In Apr 25: a) major mainland cities saw mom decrea...
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Gigi Cheuk
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Kate Luang
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, April 15, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade: A divergence between exports and imports. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property: Sales recovery weakened in Apr 25; watch for further policy support and the implications of Hong Kong’s free trade status. Results Zijin Mining (2899 HK/BUY/HK$17.22/Target: HK$24.00): 1Q25: In line; poised to capitalise on gold price surge with robust production growth. Update Kingboard Laminates Holdings (1888 HK/BUY/HK$7.69/Target: HK$9.58): Cautiously optimistic on 1H25; developing...
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): 2024: In line; mining entities’ gross margin g...
Zijin reported 2024 earnings of Rmb32,050.6m (+51.8% yoy), within expectations. Mining entities’ gross margin expanded to 58.0% in 2024 (+8.9ppt yoy) on a metal price rally and effective cost control. Both Zijin’s copper C1 and gold AISC were among the 20% lowest globally. Copper/gold output grew to 1.07m/72.9 tonnes (+6.1%/+7.7% yoy). Kamoa’s copper output will hit 580,000 tonnes with the completion of phase 3 expansion six months ahead of schedule. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$23.00.
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, March 25, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet Seeing great opportunities in AI development, major China cloud hyperscalers are significantly lifting their AI investment in 2025. With the launch of Manus, we are more optimistic about the accelerating monetisation capabilities of AI agents and applications through API integration and tool utilisation, which benefit cloud hyperscalers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Results CMOC (3993 HK/BUY/HK$6.72/Target: HK$8.70) CMOC reported 2024 earnings of Rmb13,532.0m (+64.0...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Gigi Cheuk
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Lester Siew
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, March 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Monetisation potential and trends of AI agent from the launch of Manus AI. Results CMOC (3993 HK/BUY/HK$6.72/Target: HK$8.70) 2024: Above expectations; copper output up 55% yoy to 650,161 tonnes. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$12.58/Target: HK$11.62) 2024: Results in line; more volatile business environment in 2025 but limited valuation ...
2488 ALLIANCE BANK MALAYSIA BHD.
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
3993 CHINA MOLYBDENUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
HLFG HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP
IOI IOI CORP BHD
AMM AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ABANK AFFIN BANK BHD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
1888 KINGBOARD LAMINATES HOLDINGS LTD
09888 BAIDU INC
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BIMB BANK ISLAM MALAYSIA BHD
EPIC 1CM INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
MAYBANK MALAYAN BANKING BHD
HUIZ HUIZE HOLDING LIMITED
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy: Alpha Picks -- March Conviction Calls
The HSI and MSCI China index rose 13.4% mom and 11.5% mom respectively in February, riding the wave of optimism on China’s tech sector. Sino-US tensions look set to rise in March, as higher tariffs take effect and should lead to greater market volatility. Hence, we will be quick to take profit and will only add names with less demanding valuations. New additions to our BUY list are Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining.
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
China Metals and Mining: Hawkish Fed spurs North America ETF outflows;...
The robust US jobs market reinforced expectations for a less aggressive rate-cut path, but gold prices remained resilient and supported by US policy uncertainties. A hawkish Fed has led to a net outflow of North American gold ETF, but we believe inflation concerns will eventually boost retail demand. LME/SHFE copper prices hit a one-month high on optimism on demand from China and indications of robust Chinese copper demand in recent weeks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Jo Yee Ng
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Lester Siew
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, January 15, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Positive signs despite weak credit demand. Sector Baijiu Industry remains under pressure; conservative tone toward 2025; channel healthiness and price stability the key focuses. Downgrade the baijiu sector to UNDERWEIGHT. Metals and Mining ...
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
BTPS BANK TABUNGAN PENSIUNAN NASIONAL SYARIAH
IOI IOI CORP BHD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
SPSB SP SETIA BHD
GENP GENTING PLANTATIONS BHD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
KMLY KIMLY LTD
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
BBYB BANK NEO COMMERCE
Z29 029 GROUP SE
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
1787 SHANDONG GOLD MINING CO LTD
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Market Strategy: 2025 Year Ahead - De-risking And De-cou...
Expect increased market volatility in 1H25 as the US embarks on another round of trade rebalancing with China via higher tariffs. We expect China to roll out growth supportive policies on top of the de-risking measures that have been announced. Hence, we prefer a domestic orientation and policy beneficiaries for 1H25. Our MSCI China Index target is at 68pt, based on 7% EPS growth and 10.5x PE. The downside target is 51pt in the event of a full-fledged trade war. China is focusing on de-riskin...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
00241 ALIBABA HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LTD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): 3Q24: In line; mining entities’ gross margin d...
Zijin reported 9M24 earnings of Rmb24,357.5m (+50.7% yoy), representing 80% of our full-year estimate and within expectations. Mining entities’ gross margin fell to 58.5% in 3Q24 (-1.2ppt qoq) on lower copper ASP. 9M24 copper/gold output grew to 789,459/54.3 tonnes (+8.3%/+4.7% yoy). The electricity shortage is constraining Kamoa’s copper output, which could result in a 2-4% shortfall to Zijin’s 2024 copper output target. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$21.90.
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