reports
- Soomit Datta
Vivo (Buy, TP: BRL61, +15%) Vivo - Q4 23: Double digit EBITDA growth,...
Vivo reported a good set of Q4s, with a 2% EBITDA beat taking growth to 10% y/y, or 6% in real terms. Wireless service revenue growth is running ahead of peers with post-paid adds very strong; fixed has been consistently growing now at 2-3% for a few quarters. Capex came in at a shade below BRL9 billion, a level in absolute terms which think can be maintained for the coming years (and implying falling as % sales).
- Soomit Datta
TIM/Vivo - Maintain Buys; Solid Wireless supported by improving Tower ...
Despite the 40-45% rally YTD we continue to like the Brazilian Telco stocks. Wireless operator dynamics remain very favourable with FCF supported significantly for TIM in the near-term by Oi tower decommissioning, with a potentially broader reset for the industry relative to the Tower cos over the mid-term (part of a broader EM theme perhaps following IHS in Nigeria).
- David Lopes
- Soomit Datta
Vivo (Buy, TP: BRL61, +30%) Vivo Q3 23 – Solid quarter, strong FCF pa...
Vivo reported solid Q3s, with revenue and EBITDA (stripping out a BRL175m gain) 1.2% and 1.5% ahead of consensus, respectively. Service revenue grew 7.5% YoY (similar to Q2) driven by 3% growth in fixed and 9% in wireless, and remaining well ahead of inflation (which is creeping up again in Brazil). FCF generation, supported by falling capex, remains a highlight, with YTD of BRL7.6 billion representing >10% yield to equity – there will be more to come in Q4. FCF paves the way for the BRL5 billio...
- James Ratzer
- Soomit Datta
- James Ratzer
Telefonica (Buy, €4.6, +18%) Q2 23 - Upwards momentum on all fronts
Telefonica has reported a strong set of quarterly results – but mostly importantly, it has increased its guidance for FY23, given new positive guidance for 2023 FCF, and also announced a new CMD to come in November at which they will set out new three year growth targets, which could provide even further FCF upside.
- David Lopes
- Soomit Datta
Vivo (Buy, TP: BRL59, +43%) Telefonica Brasil / Vivo Q2 23 – Numbers ...
Vivo reported solid Q2s, with revenue and EBITDA 1% and 2.5% ahead of consensus, respectively. Revenue growth, now fully clean of Oi, was >10% y/y in wireless on the back of recent price hikes and therefore well ahead of current inflation (~4%). On the fixed side, trends softened a little from lower Corporate Data (more volatile) but still with group service revenue growth of 7.5% which likely won’t be too far off TIM’s underlying (and largely wireless only) growth.
- Soomit Datta
TIMP3 (Buy, TP: BRL21, +42%) VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL59, +34%) Brazilian T...
Despite a good run for the Brazilian telco equities of late we think there is much more to come over the next 12 months. Following some early testing of the water by the industry we now incorporate pre-paid wireless price increases into estimates noting how low spend as % income in Brazil should help prices stick (and reminds us of India); TIM is most geared into this segment and leads us to upgrade the stock to Buy, while we remain positive on Vivo and AMX (Brazil being 20% of EBITDA).
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
Vivo (Buy, TP: $55, +34%) Telefonica Brasil / Vivo Q1 23 - Accelerati...
Vivo reported solid Q1s, with revenue and EBITDA ~3% and ~1% ahead of consensus, respectively. Revenue trends accelerated in both fixed (cloud, corporate data) - and mobile (price increases, and another good quarter of post-paid adds). As a result, group service revenue growth accelerated (to 11.5% y/y from 9.9% in Q4) whereas peers saw a small slowdown this quarter.
- David Lopes
- Soomit Datta
Vivo (Buy, TP: BRL55, +38%) Telefonica Brasil / Vivo Q4s - Dividend r...
Vivo Q4s reported after close were solid, coming in 1-2% ahead at revenue and EBITDA. Perhaps more crucially for the stock Vivo has also started the process of asking Anatel for a Capital stock reduction of BRL5 billion. This should remove dividend overhang on the stock and pave the way for a yield - along with a BRL500m buy back - which should be in the 8-9% range we think.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
New Street: Oi (Neutral, TP: under review) Oi Q1 22 - Pro-forma Lever...
Oi reported Q1s before the open. Fibre adds continue to slow (which we knew from Anatel data) though we gleaned more details on the revenue implications. Against this difficult backdrop we have also run an update on pro-forma leverage (for Q2 events: Wireless sale, V.tal deconsolidation and the latest Anatel deal) and see consolidated net debt (inc. Anatel liabilities) at over BRL13 billion as of Q1 2022 (and before a potential post-deal close payment on Wireless of up to BRL1.5 billion).
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
New Street: TIM (Buy, TP: BRL20, +60%) Vivo (Neutral, TP: BRL56, +22%)...
The Brazilian Senate last night approved the bill that sets a cap on a state-level tax (ICMS) on fuel, natural gas, electricity, transport and telecoms. The bill was approved with some (minor) changes from the text approved by the Lower House on last Wednesday, therefore the final version will go back to the Lower House to be analysed in the next week. We would anticipate approval shortly given timing of October Presidential elections.
- Soomit Datta
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