Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK165.00) - Solid underlying momentum

Ambu pre-released headline Q1 figures and raised its full-year guidance recently, so focus with the detailed results was on the growth split within the important endoscopy business, with concerns related to the strong pulmonology growth being affected by favourable order timing and slowing Ex-pulmonology growth. We have trimmed estimates but find the case unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and DKK165 target price.

Weaker Q1 mix, but intriguing inventory build

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK165.00) - Strong scope for growth

Following the significant preliminary Q1 results beat, we believe momentum is building and see further upside potential to the 2024/25 outlook, but also beyond after our deep dive into Ambu’s growth levers. Following physician feedback, we are particularly optimistic on the recent launch of Ambu’s new single-use ureteroscope. We find it increasingly likely the company meets its c20% EBIT margin target at least one year ahead of schedule. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to D...

Strong Q1 overshadows opex-build story

Strong Q1 pre-announced

Ambu AS: 2 directors

Two Directors at Ambu AS bought 21,500 shares at between 112.950DKK and 114.090DKK. The significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK140.00) - Solid guidance considering soft Q4

We view the 2024/25 guidance as solid given the Q4 miss and management’s conservative tendency. Pulmonology growth might be below our forecast for 2024/25, but the strong momentum in the rest of Endoscopy should make up for it. We view the investment case as intact, and thus reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK140 (145) on the Q4 margin miss.

Reality check

Q4 to show growth eroding further

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK145.00) - Q4 focus: Pulmonary and guidance

We believe Ambu will report a stronger Q4 than expected by consensus, but ultimately expect focus to be on the Pulmonary growth momentum in the quarter as well as the 2024/25 guidance. We look for guidance of at least 10–13% organic growth, with consensus at the high end, but which we view as probably conservative. We reiterate our BUY and DKK145 target price.

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK145.00) - Growth outlook still looks solid

Ambu pre-released headline Q3 figures and raised its full-year guidance back in July, so focus with the full Q3 results was on the apparent Pulmonary endoscopy sales miss, raising concerns about growth for 2024/25 onwards. However, we see only minor changes to the growth outlook and believe the share price reaction was overdone. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK145 (138).

Estimate risks on the rise

No narrowing of guidance

A very much anticipated guidance hike

Strong Q3 pre-announced with 15% organic growth. Now comps get tougher, growth decelleration imminent. 2025e EPS +5%, TP DKK 100 (95). Still too expensive. SELL.

Flattening revenues AND bulky valuation

Q2 largely inline with pre-announcement. Q2 was the peak for growth, H2 revenues flattening out. At 71x P/E Ambu needs time to grow into its bulky valuation.

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK138.00) - Guidance still looks conservative

Having pre-released Q2 headline numbers and increased the 2024 guidance in mid-April, today’s detailed results provided few surprises. However, the important Endoscopy sales were slightly better than expected, and we find today’s guidance for >15% organic growth YOY (previously c15%) for that part of company still conservative, with potential for a further rise with the Q3 results. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK138 (130).

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK130.00) - Strong Q1 suggests promising 2024

With a c20% EBIT beat driven by the top line and profitability, Q1 showed Ambu is off to a strong start to 2023/24. However, the guidance was maintained and remains conservative in our view, while recent price rises to the legacy business and more reimbursement for the aScope 5 leave further upside potential. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK130 (120).