EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: 4Q23 profits largely in line; 2024E guidance assumes continuation of profits, but ROE is likely start to normalise • Alpha Bank: 4Q23 highlights • Eurobank: 4Q23 highlights • Fondul Proprietatea: Court of Appeal admits Fund’s request to annul share capital increase decision at Bucharest Airports POSITIVE • Arcelik: CMA approves Arcelik-Whirlpool Deal POSITIVE • DataWalk: key takeaways from the preliminary 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23E results preview ...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Arabian Drilling: 3Q23 results - strong EBITDA, flat net income • Alpha Bank: 3Q23 highlights - better-than-expected core revenues and cost control • Piraeus Bank: 3Q23 highlights - a beat from core revenues and cost control • Bucharest Stock Exchange: 3Q23 results • Kazatomprom: 3Q23 trading statement • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (30 October-5 November) • European oil and gas monthly: October 2023 - refining margins back to normal • Polish utilities: power prices...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: beats expectations with 2Q23 delivery, implies massive upside risk to FY23E expectations • CEZ: strong 2Q beat on trading, EBITDA and net guidance unchanged POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 2Q23 - occupancy stable, FFO yield at 17%, developments could push it up to 20+% POSITIVE • CTP: 2Q23 - recurring in line, FFO guidance reiterated, leasing backdrop supportive, LTV contained POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 2Q23 results review - adjusted EBITDA +19% yoy to HUF 83.4bn, 4% above ou...
EME Equity Market – June 2023 Market performance – in the mostly green month of June, Czech Index’s red performance stands out; Turkish gains eclipsed by TRY devaluation. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.3% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in June. The Polish WIG20 advanced the most (+11.1% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms), the Greek ASE Index (+4.9% mom in EUR terms) and the Romanian BET Index (with a more modest, but positive performance: +2....
HEADLINES: • GTC: takeaways from the management call with investors on the Ultima purchase NEGATIVE • Richter: Minister reiterates WFT rate cut plus R&D write-off NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: key takeaways from an interview with the CFO POSITIVE • Electrica: has attracted EUR 57m of non-reimbursable financing through the Modernisation Fund NEUTRAL • Alpha Bank: completion of Project Sky and issuance of senior preferred notes • Short news (TEL)
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: 4Q FY23 - miss vs. consensus on higher opex, forward-looking guidance implies upside NEUTRAL • Alpha Bank: investor day highlights POSITIVE • LiveChat Software: launches beta tests of ChatBot 2.0 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: real users in May 2023 NEGATIVE
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Alpha Bank: 1Q23 - a strong start to 2023 POSITIVE • Turk Telekom: 1Q23 results slightly below the consensus on EBITDA/NI • BIM: 1Q23 results - in line operationally, but bottom line misses expectations NEUTRAL • Petkim: 1Q results - net income beats forecasts • CCC: soft start to the year, with 1Q23 adjusted EBITDA down 36% yoy NEGATIVE • Auto Partner: April sales up by 36% yoy, 3ppts above our model assumption NEUTRAL • Electrica: 1Q23 operational indicators show 9% decline in ...
HEADLINES: • Coca-Cola Icecek: 1Q23 results - strong beat in operating performance POSITIVE • Vestel Beyaz: strong beat in 1Q23 results POSITIVE • Elbit Systems: management call highlights - improved outlook POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: amendments to the solidarity tax law introduced by the Senate POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: to receive RON 867m dividends from Hidroelectrica • The Rear-View Mirror - EME markets: all geographies in the black, bar Turkey • Banca Transilvania: 1Q23E results preview ...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • Alpha Bank: 4Q22 - strong quarter, discount vs. peers too wide POSITIVE • National Bank: 4Q22 - solid numbers, upside risk in targets POSITIVE • Hungary macro: a closer look at the funding position • Wirtualna Polska: mediocre 4Q22, with adjusted EBITDA up 15% yoy, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: 2023E guidance, CMD takeaways NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: receives tag-along notice from Enel for two of the subsidiaries NEUTRAL • US macro: disinflation path...
HEADLINES: • BIM: 4Q22 results - in line operationally NEUTRAL • Turkey macro: January balance of payment shows no improvement • Greece macro: February inflation moderates to 6.1% yoy • Romania macro: inflation up, trade deficit shrinks • Banca Transilvania: budget for 2023E, reassuring outlook • Electrica: takeaways from the 4Q22 earnings call • Romanian utilities: tariffs may be adjusted only with inflation and recovery of grid losses • Shoper: expects e-commerce market to rise by 7-8%...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: heading for a bumper year (Alpha Bank, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus Bank stay BUY) • Turkey strategy: Kahramanmaras earthquake - the aftermath • Romgaz: 4Q22 trading statement • Tupras: to pay dividend of TRY 45.41/share • Islandsbanki: 4Q22 highlights and further colour on potential merger with Kvika • Bucharest Stock Exchange: 4Q22 prelims - shaky end to the year, with inflation in the driving seat NEGATIVE • Poland macro: President Duda sends justice bill back to C...
The Greek banks are up 32% ytd, outperforming the European banking index (SX7E +19% ytd). The valuation gap has narrowed, but the Greek banks, in our view, are still not fully priced. On average, the Greek banks trade at a P/E of c.6x on our 2023E (a discount of c.25% vs. their peers) and a P/TBV of 0.6x (a discount of c.10%). In view of the strong Greek macro story, the positive impact from the rate hikes, the healthy corporate loan growth and the benign asset quality trends, we expect the Gree...
Greece posted a solid 2022, with another year of strong GDP recovery (+5%), stable politics and a positive performance for the benchmark ASE Index (+4%), despite the negative global backdrop. Looking into 2023E, the key tailwinds are a stronger local macro outlook, a potential upgrade to investment grade status, the possible return of dividends from the banking sector, and continued earnings upgrades from corporates. The key headwinds are the volatility that could be created during a prolonged e...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
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