HEADLINES: • CTP: better late than never (upgraded to BUY) • Georgia macro: protests in Tbilisi • Raiffeisen Bank International: posts solid 1Q24, keeps 2024E guidance (but only on ex. Russia and Belarus basis), facing huge pressure to address Russia and Belarus exposures from officials • Air Astana Group: 1Q24 – 15% ASK growth, RASK down slightly yoy, but CASK stable • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 1Q24 highlights NEUTRAL • Alkaloid: 1Q24 numbers a strong start to the year POSITIVE • National Ban...
NBG has reported EUR 358m in net income in 1Q24, with a 9% beat vs. the EUR 328m consensus. On a one-off adjusted basis, NBG’s EUR 380m net income from continuing operations is an 11% beat vs. the consensus (EUR 343m). The beat was due mainly to trading and other income (EUR 60m actual vs. the EUR 35m consensus). There is also a small EUR 10m beat in the core revenues (NII+fees). Overall, we see this as a decent quarter, particularly from the point of view of the capital generation. The bank add...
Piraeus has posted 1Q24 net income figures of EUR 233m and EUR 279m in reported and normalised terms, respectively. This indicates a 3% miss on the reported net income consensus (EUR 239m) and a 5% miss on the normalised net income consensus (EUR 295m). The miss was mainly revenue-driven, where other operating income/loss lines brought in a EUR 67m setback in the quarter, EUR 43m of which was related to the expenses associated with the HFSF stake sale. At first look, 1Q24 seems to have left us w...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: reassessing the inflation and rates outlook to 2025E eop • Benefit Systems: strong momentum continues • Dom Development: volume growth, margins stronger for longer (stays BUY) • Kazakhstan macro: NBK keeps policy rate on hold, at 14.75% • Ford Otosan: to issue Eurobond • Bank Pekao: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • ING BSK: 1Q24E preview (results due on 7 May) • Short News (HUG)
After the excellent 2023 (3.9k units sold, PLN 2.6bn in revenues and a 30+% ROE, with just PLN 131m of net debt), we believe that Dom Development (Dom) is en route to another good year. Construction costs are stable and prices are still trending up, albeit at a slower pace than last year, when we saw offer prices for new apartments rise 14-22% yoy in major Polish cities, according to JLL. This means that we could see strong margins for longer, with possible upside to the already-high GPM of rece...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
We are revisiting and transferring coverage of the Greek banks. We estimate their earnings to plateau, and their ROTEs to normalise in 2024-26E, as the market expects short-term Euribor rates to decline. Capital and liquidity gain importance as there is less easy money. The emphasis will be on optimising balance sheets, returning capital, and minimising funding costs relative to Euribor. We like National Bank of Greece (NBG; BUY) for its profitability, simplicity, and potential to return capital...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: 13% beat vs. our 4Q23 EBITDA forecast, on stronger revenues (CP77 IP) POSITIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: mixed 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • Cimsa: 2023 financial results review • Tauron: reports 4Q23 EBITDA of PLN 674m , 44% lower qoq, but 83% higher yoy NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Romanian energy: government adopts emergency ordinance, with amended regulations for the energy sector NEUTRAL • Bank of Georgia: receives app...
HEADLINES: • InPost: 4Q23 strong, as expected; neutral FY24E guidance; volume acceleration in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 4Q23 review – net profit up 10% yoy, in line with preliminaries; strong 2024 backlog recorded POSITIVE • Echo Investment: 4Q23 – residential good, offices bad NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • LPP: key takeaways from the conference call on the exit from Russia, 2.0 POSITIVE • Kruk: 2023 net profit DPS proposal of PLN 18, in line with our expectations N...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (18-24 March) • Richter: proposes dividend of HUF 423/share POSITIVE • Romgaz: makes two dividend proposals NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: notes from the Uzbekistan webinar POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: AGM convocation NEUTRAL • Short News (HUG)
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: good news and challenges – the state of play in March • Aegean Airlines: caps off another strong year with a good 4Q, to pay out a EUR 0.75 DPS POSITIVE • Sarantis: 2H23 results slightly above guidance NEUTRAL • National Bank of Greece: 4Q23 and 2024-26E outlook highlights • Budimex: annual conference takeaways – targeting maintaining 2024E revenues and margins flat yoy NEUTRAL • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders called to approve continuation of SMR project, based...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: 4Q23 profits largely in line; 2024E guidance assumes continuation of profits, but ROE is likely start to normalise • Alpha Bank: 4Q23 highlights • Eurobank: 4Q23 highlights • Fondul Proprietatea: Court of Appeal admits Fund’s request to annul share capital increase decision at Bucharest Airports POSITIVE • Arcelik: CMA approves Arcelik-Whirlpool Deal POSITIVE • DataWalk: key takeaways from the preliminary 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23E results preview ...
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: posts solid 4Q23/2023 results NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP on hold, with a cautious bias • CTP: 4Q23 – yet another quarter with a strong, positive revaluation gain POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q23 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance for possibly deeper margins erosion NEGATIVE • Electrica: rather disappointing 2024E budget NEGATIVE • Electrica: proposes RON 0.1178 DPS and looking to issue green bonds NEUTRAL • PGE: weaker qoq EBITDA in 4Q23, but expected NEUTRAL • Data...
HEADLINES: • Telecom Egypt: 4Q23 results review – EBITDA up 24% yoy, 7% below the consensus NEUTRAL • Arcelik: weak operating performance in 4Q23 results NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (26 February-3 March) • 4iG: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Purcari Wineries: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: February bookings estimate at USD 13m, up 5% mom POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: February total bookings estimate flat mom, but further declines in ...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line beat, but lacking quality • Turkey macro: 4Q GDP expands by 4% • 4iG: 4Q23 results review – solid results, with 19% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 4Q23 – positive gross profit in all segments, but liquidity risk on the horizon • HELLENiQ Energy: 4Q23 results – dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q23 above our expectations POSITIVE • AmRest: key takeaways from the 4Q23 call POSITIVE • Richter: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings ...
HEADLINES: • Polish Auto Parts Distribution: sound recurrent growth prospects (Auto Partner downgraded to HOLD; Inter Cars stays BUY) • Kruk: 4Q23/2023 results – solid, but in line NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: books solid 2023, issues positive guidance on 2024E COR, and pays dividend one year earlier than expected POSITIVE • Romgaz: FY23 net profit 12% above profit reported with 2024E budget POSITIVE • Transelectrica: FY23 net result slightly below preliminary reported with 2024 budget NEUTRAL • KazMun...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: 4Q23 preliminary results in line with the January guidance, strong gross margin of 14.4% NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: HyperPIC selected for PLN 453.6m co-financing under the European Funds for a Modern Economy 2021-2027 POSITIVE • Polish banks: PLN 1,563m of sector contributions to resolution fund in 2024E, guarantee fund contributions still suspended • PZU: most of the Management Board dismissed, but CFO stays • OMV Petrom: signs financing agreement through recovery plan for ...
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