Tariffs & Broadcom: the baseline & what’s next:

Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis, to evaluate the impact on Broadcom with more precision. This follows our recent deep dive on the impact on Nvidia

Tariffs – How would a recession affect our coverage?

The tariffs announced by the Trump administration in the last two weeks have resulted in major swings in the stock market and broader concerns regarding the global economy. We developed a framework to understand the situation and interpret its daily evolution last week and follow up today with an initial perspective on potential macro implications.

March Sales Review

Semiconductors in the crash: Relative valuations walked back 15 years...

As we brace for another tough Monday, we share with you this morning our usual quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis, although, this time, in light of the steep pullback of the last couple of days, and the last couple of months. Over the next 30 slides. We did our best to articulate our expectations for earnings revisions with where we stand on valuation already, and the fundamental backdrop, segment by segment. We conclude with a very...

Tariffs. Figuring the right baseline to assess implications

Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. We chose to help layout a simple and strong analytical baseline to understand the first-order impact of tariffs on our coverage. In a few slides we have summarised the groundwork and look forward to continuing the work and help our readers make sense of implications in weeks to come.

Making sure you saw this - Intel Vision: Where do we stand? What matte...

Making sure you saw our note on Intel prior to the Intel Vision event. Intel Vision will feature the first keynote of Lip-Bu Tan, the incoming CEO. We take the opportunity to review where things stand and options ahead.

Intel Vision: Where do we stand? What matters?

A last note from us, before we call it a week. Intel Vision next week will feature the first keynote of Lip-Bu Tan, the incoming CEO. We take the opportunity to review where things stand and options ahead. Please follow the link below - an easy read for your weekend!

ARC-AGI-2: Pushing the measure of intelligence beyond test-time comput...

The ARC team has announced ARC-AGI-2 and published initial benchmarking results, after ARC-AGI-1 got saturated by o3. The race to AGI is reset. Fascinating. ​​​​​For what all investors need to understand about the most important benchmark of the industry, summarized on a single slide, see the attached article.

AI infrastructure growth, 2024-2027: Who wins inside the chip?

Nvidia’s updated GPU roadmap provided some good visibility on how the macro-architecture of GPUs will evolve until 2027. To see the implications for key players supplying the chips’ bill of material, summarized on a single slide, see the article attached.

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 4Q24

We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 240 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.

AI buildouts: How is 2026 shaping up? What do we know already?

The outlook for 2025 AI datacenter spending is solid, with the debate now shifting to 2026 and the supply-demand trajectory. As the last earnings season is still fresh in our minds and our team just came back from Asia, we have gathered in this short note all what we know so far of 2026, and implications.

GPUs vs. ASICs – Clash of the titans.

Broadcom announced last week an additional 2 engagements for its custom compute business, bringing the total to 7, with 3 already in production. In today’s work, we take a deep dive into GPU and ASIC throughput and TCO to assess how the market is likely to evolve in the coming years. Our findings should provide investors with a valuable framework ahead of Nvidia’s upcoming announcements at GTC next week.

February Sales Review

Broadcom 1FQ25: AI datacenter custom chips gaining traction Buy, $245 ...

Broadcom reported 3FQ24 yesterday.