reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight Whether or not the lows for this correction have already been established remains to be seen, but evidence is mounting that suggests a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely. Regardless, continue to stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors, all of which hit new price and RS highs in recent days. 10-Year Treasury Yield. We have discussed our expectations for rising ra...
AMGN AMGEN INC.
INCY INCYTE CORP
OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION
VRTX VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED
SU. SUNCOR ENERGY INC.
SNYN SANOFI S.A. ADS
REGN REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
NOVA NOVO NORDISK A/S ADS
MRK MERCK & CO. INC.
JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON
HES HESS CORPORATION
EOG EOG RESOURCES INC.
DVN DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
CNO CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
CLR CONTINENTAL RESOURCES INC.
BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY
NVS.. NOVARTIS AG ADS
PFE PFIZER INC.
ABBV ABBVIE INC.
GS7A GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC (ADR)
BAYA BAYER AG ADS
IMO IMMORENTE INVEST SA
OVV OVINTIV INC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Small-Caps Closing the Gap Major averages in the US (S&P 500, Dow, Russell 2000) and Europe (STOXX 600 & 50) each had throwbacks to their prior breakout levels last week, with all making successful tests of support amid reports of a potential setback in trade negotiations... see charts below. Thus far, buy-the-dippers have been rewarded. While a retest of these lows is possible -- particularly if something goes awry regarding US-China trade or the Fed -- we continue to believe dips should be bo...
SPPI SPECTRUM PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
SIG SIGNET JEWELERS LIMITED
PCTI PCTEL INC
NOVA NOVO NORDISK A/S ADS
MRK MERCK & CO. INC.
JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON
ICPT INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
HRTX HERON THERAPEUTICS INC
CMTL COMTECH TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORP.
BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY
EH3A AMARIN CORPORATION PLC SPONSORED ADR
SWKS SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS INC.
INSG INSEEGO CORP
ACIU AC IMMUNE SA
ABBV ABBVIE INC.
GS7A GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC (ADR)
BAYA BAYER AG ADS
OSMT OSMOTICA PHARMACEUTICALS
- Damien Conover
Morningstar | Jury Awards Over $2B in Damages Against Bayer in Glyphos...
A jury in Northern California decided Bayer's glyphosate product caused cancer in two more people and awarded close to $2 billion in damages, but we are not changing our moat rating or fair value based on the ruling. We expect Bayer will appeal this case, with a much more favorable outcome likely. As the majority of the damages were punitive (relative to compensatory), we also expect subsequent decisions to significantly lower the amount of damages. We continue to view the stock as undervalued, ...
- Damien Conover
Jury Awards Over $2B in Damages Against Bayer in Glyphosate Case, but ...
A jury in Northern California decided Bayer's glyphosate product caused cancer in two more people and awarded close to $2 billion in damages, but we are not changing our moat rating or fair value based on the ruling. We expect Bayer will appeal this case, with a much more favorable outcome likely. As the majority of the damages were punitive (relative to compensatory), we also expect subsequent decisions to significantly lower the amount of damages. We continue to view the stock as undervalued, ...
- Damien Conover
Morningstar | Bayer Posts Steady 1Q as Crop and Drug Segments Show Sol...
Bayer reported first-quarter results largely in line with our expectations, and we don't expect any major impacts to our fair value estimate. We continue to view the stock as undervalued with the investment community likely overly concerned with the ongoing glyphosate litigation and not appreciating the underlying core fundamentals of a well-positioned drug and crop science firm with strong intellectual property supporting a wide economic moat. In the quarter, both the crop and drug segments po...
- Damien Conover
Bayer Posts Steady 1Q as Crop and Drug Segments Show Solid Growth as G...
Bayer reported first-quarter results largely in line with our expectations, and we don't expect any major impacts to our fair value estimate. We continue to view the stock as undervalued with the investment community likely overly concerned with the ongoing glyphosate litigation and not appreciating the underlying core fundamentals of a well-positioned drug and crop science firm with strong intellectual property supporting a wide economic moat. In the quarter, both the crop and drug segments pos...
- Damien Conover
Morningstar | Bayer Loses Another Glyphosate Case, but Scientific Stud...
A San Francisco jury found that Bayer's glyphosate product Roundup caused Edwin Hardeman's cancer and will decide on potential damages in the second phase of the case later in the year. However, we don't expect any major changes to our fair value estimate or moat rating based on the jury's decision. While we view the stock as undervalued, we also rate it with high uncertainty (the highest rating in the peer group of Big Pharma stocks). Our base projections include EUR 2 billion in legal costs re...
- Damien Conover
Bayer Loses Another Glyphosate Case, but Scientific Studies Still Supp...
A San Francisco jury found that Bayer's glyphosate product Roundup caused Edwin Hardeman's cancer and will decide on potential damages in the second phase of the case later in the year. However, we don't expect any major changes to our fair value estimate or moat rating based on the jury's decision. While we view the stock as undervalued, we also rate it with high uncertainty (the highest rating in the peer group of Big Pharma stocks). Our base projections include EUR 2 billion in legal costs re...
- Damien Conover
Morningstar | Bayer Faces Steady Growth Over Next Three Years, Buoyed ...
Largely on the basis of the strong competitive advantages of the healthcare group and to a lesser extent the crop science business, we believe Bayer has created a wide economic moat. Also, the recent divestiture of no-moat material science group Covestro leaves the company in a stronger competitive position.In the healthcare division, Bayer's strong lineup of recently launched drugs and solid exposure to biologics should support steady long-term growth. Two of Bayer's key drugs are biologics: Be...
- Damien Conover
Bayer Faces Steady Growth Over Next Three Years, Buoyed by Healthcare ...
Bayer reported fourth-quarter results largely in line with our expectations, with some outperformance on the bottom line offset by lower-than-expected top-line growth. We don't expect any major changes to our fair value estimate based on the results, and we continue to view the stock as undervalued partly due to an overreaction to the firm's glyphosate litigation challenges. Bayer reiterated its long-term annualized earnings growth guidance of close to 10% through 2022, which we expect it will p...
- Damien Conover
Morningstar | Buoyed by Xarelto and Eylea Gains, 4Q Keeps Bayer on Tra...
Bayer reported fourth-quarter results largely in line with our expectations, with some outperformance on the bottom line offset by lower-than-expected top-line growth. We don't expect any major changes to our fair value estimate based on the results, and we continue to view the stock as undervalued partly due to an overreaction to the firm's glyphosate litigation challenges. Bayer reiterated its long-term annualized earnings growth guidance of close to 10% through 2022, which we expect it will p...
- Damien Conover
Buoyed by Xarelto and Eylea Gains, 4Q Keeps Bayer on Track to Meet Lon...
Bayer reported fourth-quarter results largely in line with our expectations, with some outperformance on the bottom line offset by lower-than-expected top-line growth. We don't expect any major changes to our fair value estimate based on the results, and we continue to view the stock as undervalued partly due to an overreaction to the firm's glyphosate litigation challenges. Bayer reiterated its long-term annualized earnings growth guidance of close to 10% through 2022, which we expect it will p...
- Damien Conover
Morningstar | BAYRY Updated Forecasts and Estimates from 17 Jan 2019
During Bayer's capital markets day, the firm provided more details around one-time costs related to restructuring the business that led to a 3% reduction in our fair value estimate (with a slightly larger reduction to the ADR due to changes in currency rates). While we believe the restructuring makes strategic sense, the related one-time costs needed to implement the restructuring of over EUR 4 billion are higher than we expected. Despite the reduction in fair value, we continue to view the sto...
- Damien Conover
Morningstar | Bayer Provides Details on One-Time Restructuring Costs, ...
During Bayer's capital markets day, the firm provided more details around one-time costs related to restructuring the business that led to a 3% reduction in our fair value estimate (with a slightly larger reduction to the ADR due to changes in currency rates). While we believe the restructuring makes strategic sense, the related one-time costs needed to implement the restructuring of over EUR 4 billion are higher than we expected. Despite the reduction in fair value, we continue to view the sto...
- Damien Conover
Bayer Provides Details on One-Time Restructuring Costs, Leading to Sli...
During Bayer's capital markets day, the firm provided more details around one-time costs related to restructuring the business that led to a 3% reduction in our fair value estimate (with a slightly larger reduction to the ADR due to changes in currency rates). While we believe the restructuring makes strategic sense, the related one-time costs needed to implement the restructuring of over EUR 4 billion are higher than we expected. Despite the reduction in fair value, we continue to view the sto...
- Damien Conover
Morningstar | Bayer Announces Cost Cuts and Divestments Along With a H...
Bayer has announced plans to restructure its operations by cutting costs and selling noncore assets, which we don't expect to affect the firm's wide moat. But high one-time costs related to the moves suggest a minor decrease in our fair value estimate. We should have more details after the company's capital markets day on Dec. 5 and will update our DCF model then. The one-time costs of over EUR 4 billion associated with the strategic moves is higher than our current model, suggesting a fair valu...
- Damien Conover
Bayer Announces Cost Cuts and Divestments Along With a High One-Time C...
Bayer has announced plans to restructure its operations by cutting costs and selling noncore assets, which we don't expect to affect the firm's wide moat. But high one-time costs related to the moves suggest a minor decrease in our fair value estimate. We should have more details after the company's capital markets day on Dec. 5 and will update our DCF model then. The one-time costs of over EUR 4 billion associated with the strategic moves is higher than our current model, suggesting a fair valu...
- Damien Conover
Morningstar | BAYRY Updated Forecasts and Estimates from 15 Nov 2018
Bayer reported third-quarter results with earnings per share slightly exceeding both our and consensus expectations, but we don't expect any major changes to our fair value estimate based on the minor outperformance. We continue to view the stock as undervalued, with the investment community likely underestimating a strong litigation defense for Bayer against the over 9,000 cases claiming damages from glyphosate use. While an early glyphosate case (Johnson) went against Bayer, we expect Bayer's ...
- Damien Conover
Morningstar | Bayer Posts Steady 3Q as Litigation Concerns Disproporti...
Bayer reported third-quarter results with earnings per share slightly exceeding both our and consensus expectations, but we don't expect any major changes to our fair value estimate based on the minor outperformance. We continue to view the stock as undervalued, with the investment community likely underestimating a strong litigation defense for Bayer against the over 9,000 cases claiming damages from glyphosate use. While an early glyphosate case (Johnson) went against Bayer, we expect Bayer's ...
- Damien Conover
Bayer Posts Steady 3Q as Litigation Concerns Disproportionately Weigh ...
Bayer reported third-quarter results with earnings per share slightly exceeding both our and consensus expectations, but we don't expect any major changes to our fair value estimate based on the minor outperformance. We continue to view the stock as undervalued, with the investment community likely underestimating a strong litigation defense for Bayer against the over 9,000 cases claiming damages from glyphosate use. While an early glyphosate case (Johnson) went against Bayer, we expect Bayer's ...
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